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The New Coffee Room

  1. TNCR
  2. General Discussion
  3. It’s starting

It’s starting

Scheduled Pinned Locked Moved General Discussion
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  • H Offline
    H Offline
    Horace
    wrote on 4 Nov 2024, 18:53 last edited by
    #190

    Paywall.

    Education is extremely important.

    L 1 Reply Last reply 4 Nov 2024, 19:24
    • H Horace
      4 Nov 2024, 18:53

      Paywall.

      L Offline
      L Offline
      LuFins Dad
      wrote on 4 Nov 2024, 19:24 last edited by
      #191

      @Horace said in It’s starting:

      Paywall.

      That parts not behind the paywall. Here’s a sheet with the influences for the National Popular Vote Count- https://static.dwcdn.net/data/6dLqU.csv

      Here’s PA - https://static.dwcdn.net/data/uyZgi.csv

      Michigan - https://static.dwcdn.net/data/p0MR1.csv

      AZ - https://static.dwcdn.net/data/2TzV1.csv

      NV - https://static.dwcdn.net/data/FwSWu.csv

      NC - https://static.dwcdn.net/data/LW63I.csv

      GA - https://static.dwcdn.net/data/zLfhh.csv

      WI - https://static.dwcdn.net/data/PMbPp.csv

      It’s all useless though. Either all the polls have for the first time in history gotten EVERYTHING absolutely correct (which has never happened once by even one pollster) or they are all very flawed and have p-hacked their polls to show a 50/50 shot. The fact that there are no outliers at all strongly indicate the latter.

      I will lay out a moderate bottle of whiskey that the results are well outside the margin of error. 4% separation in the swing states or more.

      The Brad

      1 Reply Last reply
      • C Offline
        C Offline
        Copper
        wrote on 4 Nov 2024, 19:39 last edited by
        #192

        Who benefits from polls with false information?

        1 Reply Last reply
        • J Offline
          J Offline
          Jolly
          wrote on 4 Nov 2024, 21:34 last edited by
          #193

          Kamala-lama-ding-dong.

          “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

          Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

          1 Reply Last reply
          • L Offline
            L Offline
            LuFins Dad
            wrote on 4 Nov 2024, 22:39 last edited by LuFins Dad 11 Apr 2024, 22:40
            #194

            Internals are typically weighted towards the boss and can be far worse in accuracy than the published polls, but I can’t help but wonder what the internals are looking like to influence their decisions. Kamala has completely shifted again the last two days and hasn’t even mentioned Trump’s name once.

            Now that could be the strategy from the beginning. Start with joy, then paint Trump as Hitler, then close positive… But it feels more like switching tactics since the last one didn’t work.

            The Brad

            1 Reply Last reply
            • J Offline
              J Offline
              Jolly
              wrote on 4 Nov 2024, 23:40 last edited by
              #195

              The last poll that showed Harris up in Iowa, conflicted with Trump's internal polling. Trump said his internal polling showed him almost 10 up in Iowa.

              “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

              Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

              G J 2 Replies Last reply 5 Nov 2024, 00:27
              • J Jolly
                4 Nov 2024, 23:40

                The last poll that showed Harris up in Iowa, conflicted with Trump's internal polling. Trump said his internal polling showed him almost 10 up in Iowa.

                G Offline
                G Offline
                George K
                wrote on 5 Nov 2024, 00:27 last edited by
                #196

                @Jolly said in It’s starting:

                The last poll that showed Harris up in Iowa

                Is that the Selzer poll?

                "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

                The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

                T 1 Reply Last reply 5 Nov 2024, 10:14
                • M Away
                  M Away
                  Mik
                  wrote on 5 Nov 2024, 02:09 last edited by
                  #197

                  IMG_4623.jpeg

                  "The intelligent man who is proud of his intelligence is like the condemned man who is proud of his large cell." Simone Weil

                  G 1 Reply Last reply 5 Nov 2024, 02:18
                  • M Mik
                    5 Nov 2024, 02:09

                    IMG_4623.jpeg

                    G Offline
                    G Offline
                    George K
                    wrote on 5 Nov 2024, 02:18 last edited by
                    #198

                    @Mik said in It’s starting:

                    IMG_4623.jpeg

                    LOL. I told Mrs. George the same thing about 2 hours ago.

                    I didn't, however, sing.

                    "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

                    The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

                    1 Reply Last reply
                    • M Away
                      M Away
                      Mik
                      wrote on 5 Nov 2024, 02:52 last edited by
                      #199

                      Yer not a redhead either.

                      A man’s got to know his limitations.

                      "The intelligent man who is proud of his intelligence is like the condemned man who is proud of his large cell." Simone Weil

                      1 Reply Last reply
                      • A Offline
                        A Offline
                        Axtremus
                        wrote on 5 Nov 2024, 06:10 last edited by
                        #200

                        https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model

                        Last and final update: 12:30 a.m., Tuesday, November 5. Happy Election Day! At exactly midnight on Tuesday, we ran our simulation model for the final time in this election cycle. Out of 80,000 simulations, Kamala Harris won in 40,012 (50.015%) cases.

                        That's Nate Silver's "pencils down" final answer for who his model predict will win the 2024 presidential election.

                        G 1 Reply Last reply 6 Nov 2024, 04:07
                        • A Offline
                          A Offline
                          Axtremus
                          wrote on 5 Nov 2024, 06:29 last edited by
                          #201

                          Seth's final analysis:

                          Link to video

                          1 Reply Last reply
                          • G George K
                            5 Nov 2024, 00:27

                            @Jolly said in It’s starting:

                            The last poll that showed Harris up in Iowa

                            Is that the Selzer poll?

                            T Offline
                            T Offline
                            taiwan_girl
                            wrote on 5 Nov 2024, 10:14 last edited by
                            #202

                            @George-K said in It’s starting:

                            @Jolly said in It’s starting:

                            The last poll that showed Harris up in Iowa

                            Is that the Selzer poll?

                            I believe so. See my post #186

                            1 Reply Last reply
                            • J Jolly
                              4 Nov 2024, 23:40

                              The last poll that showed Harris up in Iowa, conflicted with Trump's internal polling. Trump said his internal polling showed him almost 10 up in Iowa.

                              J Online
                              J Online
                              jon-nyc
                              wrote on 5 Nov 2024, 10:17 last edited by
                              #203

                              @Jolly said in It’s starting:

                              lTrump said his internal polling showed him almost 10 up in Iowa.

                              He also said polls show 92% of people thought he won the debate.

                              Thank you for your attention to this matter.

                              T 1 Reply Last reply 5 Nov 2024, 10:18
                              • J jon-nyc
                                5 Nov 2024, 10:17

                                @Jolly said in It’s starting:

                                lTrump said his internal polling showed him almost 10 up in Iowa.

                                He also said polls show 92% of people thought he won the debate.

                                T Offline
                                T Offline
                                taiwan_girl
                                wrote on 5 Nov 2024, 10:18 last edited by
                                #204

                                @jon-nyc said in It’s starting:

                                @Jolly said in It’s starting:

                                lTrump said his internal polling showed him almost 10 up in Iowa.

                                He also said polls show 92% of people thought he won the debate.

                                People who want to last working for PResident Trump learn to tell him what he wants to hear.

                                Otherwise, they will not be long working for him.

                                1 Reply Last reply
                                • J Online
                                  J Online
                                  jon-nyc
                                  wrote on 5 Nov 2024, 10:19 last edited by
                                  #205

                                  Such a good quality in a leader.

                                  Thank you for your attention to this matter.

                                  1 Reply Last reply
                                  • J Offline
                                    J Offline
                                    Jolly
                                    wrote on 5 Nov 2024, 11:26 last edited by
                                    #206

                                    Well, today we'll see...

                                    “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

                                    Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

                                    1 Reply Last reply
                                    • J Online
                                      J Online
                                      jon-nyc
                                      wrote on 5 Nov 2024, 11:34 last edited by
                                      #207

                                      Today? Damn you’re optimistic.

                                      Thank you for your attention to this matter.

                                      1 Reply Last reply
                                      • J Online
                                        J Online
                                        jon-nyc
                                        wrote on 5 Nov 2024, 11:46 last edited by
                                        #208

                                        Thank you for your attention to this matter.

                                        1 Reply Last reply
                                        • J Online
                                          J Online
                                          jon-nyc
                                          wrote on 5 Nov 2024, 11:49 last edited by
                                          #209

                                          Interesting. From Nate.

                                          The Univision poll I referenced earlier, exclusively of Latino voters in Pennsylvania, showed her with a 64-30 lead, much better than she’s polled for most of the year in crosstabs of Hispanic voters and also better than Biden in 2020. And for its climactic closing event at Madison Square Garden, the Trump campaign decided to feature a comedian who called Puerto Rico a “floating island of garbage”. The Hispanic population in Pennsylvania has an outsized number of Puerto Ricans.

                                          Thank you for your attention to this matter.

                                          J L 2 Replies Last reply 5 Nov 2024, 12:17
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