It’s starting
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wrote on 20 Sept 2024, 20:01 last edited by
It’s going to look like a DNA strand over the next monthZ
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wrote on 20 Sept 2024, 20:37 last edited by
I agree. Also, as Nate points out, the gap is easy to misinterpret. These are probabilities of EC victories, not gaps in polling. 55-45 is closer than it seems. Neck and neck almost.
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wrote on 22 Sept 2024, 12:47 last edited by
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wrote on 22 Sept 2024, 13:10 last edited by
@jon-nyc I meant to ask, where is he putting the odds of a 269 split?
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wrote on 22 Sept 2024, 13:12 last edited by
@jon-nyc said in It’s starting:
It’s not going to be a complete helix. My guess is you’ll see the each turn get smaller.
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@jon-nyc I meant to ask, where is he putting the odds of a 269 split?
wrote on 22 Sept 2024, 13:38 last edited by@LuFins-Dad said in It’s starting:
@jon-nyc I meant to ask, where is he putting the odds of a 269 split?
0.2%
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wrote on 22 Sept 2024, 14:27 last edited by
That’s dropped since Biden dropped out. I seem to recall it being as high as 4-5%
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wrote on 23 Sept 2024, 15:01 last edited by
The fat man’s fall continues.
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wrote on 23 Sept 2024, 15:24 last edited by
EC tie probability up to 0.3.
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wrote on 23 Sept 2024, 15:30 last edited by
Trump’s favorability rating - 10pts underwater.
Harris’ is +0.3
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wrote on 23 Sept 2024, 16:07 last edited by LuFins Dad
As you pointed out yourself, 53-46) in probability is a tossup.
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wrote on 23 Sept 2024, 19:45 last edited by
Give the Word Salad Queen time.
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wrote on 23 Sept 2024, 20:03 last edited by
I wish we could stop pretending that this is an election to decide on the best candidate for the country and start admitting that whoever's going to win is arbitrarily ahead in the polls on that particular day. It's not like anyone in the country whose financial future is tied to a particular candidate actually likes any of these people.
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wrote on 23 Sept 2024, 20:20 last edited by
@jon-nyc said in It’s starting:
Trump’s favorability rating - 10pts underwater.
Harris’ is +0.3
She's had 90%+ favorable publicity from every major broadcast media and every cable media, with the exception of FOX, for her entire candidacy. Trump has been 95% negative.
She ought to be better than than that.
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I wish we could stop pretending that this is an election to decide on the best candidate for the country and start admitting that whoever's going to win is arbitrarily ahead in the polls on that particular day. It's not like anyone in the country whose financial future is tied to a particular candidate actually likes any of these people.
wrote on 24 Sept 2024, 01:27 last edited by@Aqua-Letifer said in It’s starting:
I wish we could stop pretending that this is an election to decide on the best candidate for the country and start admitting that whoever's going to win is arbitrarily ahead in the polls on that particular day.
Aqua says the truth.
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wrote on 26 Sept 2024, 17:49 last edited by
Leveled off, some signs it will start contracting again over the next few days…
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wrote on 30 Sept 2024, 18:40 last edited by
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wrote on 1 Oct 2024, 15:19 last edited by
Weird, RCP shows a .2 drop for Kamala this morning, but I haven’t seen any polls posted to support the drop.
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wrote on 2 Oct 2024, 16:46 last edited by
Nate posted this today. It brought a smile to my face https://www.huffpost.com/entry/whats-wrong-with-538_b_581ffe18e4b0334571e09e74
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Weird, RCP shows a .2 drop for Kamala this morning, but I haven’t seen any polls posted to support the drop.
wrote on 2 Oct 2024, 17:22 last edited by@LuFins-Dad said in It’s starting:
Weird, RCP shows a .2 drop for Kamala this morning, but I haven’t seen any polls posted to support the drop.
Probably just changing weights as polls age.
