It’s starting

LuFins Dad

It’s going to look like a DNA strand over the next monthZ

jon-nyc

I agree. Also, as Nate points out, the gap is easy to misinterpret. These are probabilities of EC victories, not gaps in polling. 55-45 is closer than it seems. Neck and neck almost.

jon-nyc

LuFins Dad

@jon-nyc I meant to ask, where is he putting the odds of a 269 split?

LuFins Dad

@jon-nyc said in It’s starting:

It’s not going to be a complete helix. My guess is you’ll see the each turn get smaller.

jon-nyc

@LuFins-Dad said in It’s starting:

@jon-nyc I meant to ask, where is he putting the odds of a 269 split?

0.2%

LuFins Dad

That’s dropped since Biden dropped out. I seem to recall it being as high as 4-5%

jon-nyc

The fat man’s fall continues.

jon-nyc

EC tie probability up to 0.3.

jon-nyc

Trump’s favorability rating - 10pts underwater.

Harris’ is +0.3

LuFins Dad

As you pointed out yourself, 53-46) in probability is a tossup.

Jolly

Give the Word Salad Queen time.

Aqua Letifer

I wish we could stop pretending that this is an election to decide on the best candidate for the country and start admitting that whoever's going to win is arbitrarily ahead in the polls on that particular day. It's not like anyone in the country whose financial future is tied to a particular candidate actually likes any of these people.

Jolly

@jon-nyc said in It’s starting:

Trump’s favorability rating - 10pts underwater.

Harris’ is +0.3

She's had 90%+ favorable publicity from every major broadcast media and every cable media, with the exception of FOX, for her entire candidacy. Trump has been 95% negative.

She ought to be better than than that.

taiwan_girl

@Aqua-Letifer said in It’s starting:

I wish we could stop pretending that this is an election to decide on the best candidate for the country and start admitting that whoever's going to win is arbitrarily ahead in the polls on that particular day.

Aqua says the truth.