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The New Coffee Room

  1. TNCR
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  3. US has a shitload of cases

US has a shitload of cases

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  • J Offline
    J Offline
    jon-nyc
    wrote on 5 Apr 2020, 22:13 last edited by
    #1

    It's been three days since I updated this.

    "53268.  24% increase deaths 696, up 20%
    64,767.  22% increase.  Deaths 919, up 32%
    82,404.  27% increase.   Deaths 1178, up 28%
    100,717.  22% increase.  Deaths 1544, up 31%
    121,117. 20% increase.  Deaths 2010, up 30%
    137,294.  13% increase.  Deaths 2414, up 20%.
    159,184 16% increase.   Deaths 2953 up 22%.
    184,183 16% increase.   Deaths 3721 up 26%
    209,071 14% increase.  Deaths 4633 up 25%
    238,820, 14% increase.   Deaths 5758, up 24%."

    331,234, 11.5% daily* increase. Deaths 9458, 18% daily* increase.

    (calculated a compound daily average growth rate)

    Thank you for your attention to this matter.

    J 1 Reply Last reply 6 Apr 2020, 22:41
    • L Offline
      L Offline
      Loki
      wrote on 6 Apr 2020, 00:02 last edited by
      #2

      Do you have the trends for Florida? They fell out of the news cycle and I can only see current against an old model.

      1 Reply Last reply
      • J Offline
        J Offline
        jon-nyc
        wrote on 6 Apr 2020, 01:21 last edited by
        #3

        Yeah look in the ‘NYC is ground zero’ thread, I track the top states there.

        Thank you for your attention to this matter.

        1 Reply Last reply
        • L Offline
          L Offline
          Loki
          wrote on 6 Apr 2020, 01:34 last edited by
          #4

          Cool. IMHE which had the best trending data and then forecast hasn’t sent an update in days. There is a story lurking there.

          Also on the one hand the media was pushing that Trump’s range was unrealistically low and then Bill Gates came out today saying it was too high. It’s becoming very awkward for media types to figure out which narrative to latch on to. They are getting whipsawed.

          Let the data speak!

          C 1 Reply Last reply 6 Apr 2020, 01:58
          • L Loki
            6 Apr 2020, 01:34

            Cool. IMHE which had the best trending data and then forecast hasn’t sent an update in days. There is a story lurking there.

            Also on the one hand the media was pushing that Trump’s range was unrealistically low and then Bill Gates came out today saying it was too high. It’s becoming very awkward for media types to figure out which narrative to latch on to. They are getting whipsawed.

            Let the data speak!

            C Offline
            C Offline
            Copper
            wrote on 6 Apr 2020, 01:58 last edited by
            #5

            @Loki said in US has a shitload of cases:

            Let the data speak!

            Accurate data?

            You'll probably have to wait until next year for that.

            1 Reply Last reply
            • J jon-nyc
              5 Apr 2020, 22:13

              It's been three days since I updated this.

              "53268.  24% increase deaths 696, up 20%
              64,767.  22% increase.  Deaths 919, up 32%
              82,404.  27% increase.   Deaths 1178, up 28%
              100,717.  22% increase.  Deaths 1544, up 31%
              121,117. 20% increase.  Deaths 2010, up 30%
              137,294.  13% increase.  Deaths 2414, up 20%.
              159,184 16% increase.   Deaths 2953 up 22%.
              184,183 16% increase.   Deaths 3721 up 26%
              209,071 14% increase.  Deaths 4633 up 25%
              238,820, 14% increase.   Deaths 5758, up 24%."

              331,234, 11.5% daily* increase. Deaths 9458, 18% daily* increase.

              (calculated a compound daily average growth rate)

              J Offline
              J Offline
              jon-nyc
              wrote on 6 Apr 2020, 22:41 last edited by
              #6

              @jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:

              "53268.  24% increase deaths 696, up 20%
              64,767.  22% increase.  Deaths 919, up 32%
              82,404.  27% increase.   Deaths 1178, up 28%
              100,717.  22% increase.  Deaths 1544, up 31%
              121,117. 20% increase.  Deaths 2010, up 30%
              137,294.  13% increase.  Deaths 2414, up 20%.
              159,184 16% increase.   Deaths 2953 up 22%.
              184,183 16% increase.   Deaths 3721 up 26%
              209,071 14% increase.  Deaths 4633 up 25%
              238,820, 14% increase.   Deaths 5758, up 24%."
              331,234, 11.5% daily* increase. Deaths 9458, 18% daily* increase.

              364,723, 10% increase. Deaths 10,689, 13% increase.

              Good trend on both fronts. At least 2nd deriv

              Thank you for your attention to this matter.

              J 1 Reply Last reply 7 Apr 2020, 22:18
              • M Offline
                M Offline
                mark
                wrote on 6 Apr 2020, 22:55 last edited by
                #7

                Politicans should just keep their fucking mouths shut about this stuff. Let the data and experts speak.

                1 Reply Last reply
                • J jon-nyc
                  6 Apr 2020, 22:41

                  @jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:

                  "53268.  24% increase deaths 696, up 20%
                  64,767.  22% increase.  Deaths 919, up 32%
                  82,404.  27% increase.   Deaths 1178, up 28%
                  100,717.  22% increase.  Deaths 1544, up 31%
                  121,117. 20% increase.  Deaths 2010, up 30%
                  137,294.  13% increase.  Deaths 2414, up 20%.
                  159,184 16% increase.   Deaths 2953 up 22%.
                  184,183 16% increase.   Deaths 3721 up 26%
                  209,071 14% increase.  Deaths 4633 up 25%
                  238,820, 14% increase.   Deaths 5758, up 24%."
                  331,234, 11.5% daily* increase. Deaths 9458, 18% daily* increase.

                  364,723, 10% increase. Deaths 10,689, 13% increase.

                  Good trend on both fronts. At least 2nd deriv

                  J Offline
                  J Offline
                  jon-nyc
                  wrote on 7 Apr 2020, 22:18 last edited by
                  #8

                  @jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:

                  82,404.  27% increase.   Deaths 1178, up 28%
                  100,717.  22% increase.  Deaths 1544, up 31%
                  121,117. 20% increase.  Deaths 2010, up 30%
                  137,294.  13% increase.  Deaths 2414, up 20%.
                  159,184 16% increase.   Deaths 2953 up 22%.
                  184,183 16% increase.   Deaths 3721 up 26%
                  209,071 14% increase.  Deaths 4633 up 25%
                  238,820, 14% increase.   Deaths 5758, up 24%."
                  331,234, 11.5% daily* increase. Deaths 9458, 18% daily* increase.
                  364,723, 10% increase. Deaths 10,689, 13% increase.

                  386,817, 6% increase. Deaths 12,285 15% increase.

                  Thank you for your attention to this matter.

                  J 1 Reply Last reply 8 Apr 2020, 22:12
                  • L Offline
                    L Offline
                    LuFins Dad
                    wrote on 7 Apr 2020, 23:28 last edited by
                    #9

                    7 day doubling

                    The Brad

                    1 Reply Last reply
                    • J jon-nyc
                      7 Apr 2020, 22:18

                      @jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:

                      82,404.  27% increase.   Deaths 1178, up 28%
                      100,717.  22% increase.  Deaths 1544, up 31%
                      121,117. 20% increase.  Deaths 2010, up 30%
                      137,294.  13% increase.  Deaths 2414, up 20%.
                      159,184 16% increase.   Deaths 2953 up 22%.
                      184,183 16% increase.   Deaths 3721 up 26%
                      209,071 14% increase.  Deaths 4633 up 25%
                      238,820, 14% increase.   Deaths 5758, up 24%."
                      331,234, 11.5% daily* increase. Deaths 9458, 18% daily* increase.
                      364,723, 10% increase. Deaths 10,689, 13% increase.

                      386,817, 6% increase. Deaths 12,285 15% increase.

                      J Offline
                      J Offline
                      jon-nyc
                      wrote on 8 Apr 2020, 22:12 last edited by
                      #10

                      @jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:

                      100,717.  22% increase.  Deaths 1544, up 31%
                      121,117. 20% increase.  Deaths 2010, up 30%
                      137,294.  13% increase.  Deaths 2414, up 20%.
                      159,184 16% increase.   Deaths 2953 up 22%.
                      184,183 16% increase.   Deaths 3721 up 26%
                      209,071 14% increase.  Deaths 4633 up 25%
                      238,820, 14% increase.   Deaths 5758, up 24%."
                      331,234, 11.5% daily* increase. Deaths 9458, 18% daily* increase.
                      364,723, 10% increase. Deaths 10,689, 13% increase.
                      386,817, 6% increase. Deaths 12,285 15% increase.

                      423,135 9% increase. Deaths 14,390 17% increase.

                      Thank you for your attention to this matter.

                      J 1 Reply Last reply 9 Apr 2020, 22:03
                      • J jon-nyc
                        8 Apr 2020, 22:12

                        @jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:

                        100,717.  22% increase.  Deaths 1544, up 31%
                        121,117. 20% increase.  Deaths 2010, up 30%
                        137,294.  13% increase.  Deaths 2414, up 20%.
                        159,184 16% increase.   Deaths 2953 up 22%.
                        184,183 16% increase.   Deaths 3721 up 26%
                        209,071 14% increase.  Deaths 4633 up 25%
                        238,820, 14% increase.   Deaths 5758, up 24%."
                        331,234, 11.5% daily* increase. Deaths 9458, 18% daily* increase.
                        364,723, 10% increase. Deaths 10,689, 13% increase.
                        386,817, 6% increase. Deaths 12,285 15% increase.

                        423,135 9% increase. Deaths 14,390 17% increase.

                        J Offline
                        J Offline
                        jon-nyc
                        wrote on 9 Apr 2020, 22:03 last edited by
                        #11

                        @jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:

                        137,294.  13% increase.  Deaths 2414, up 20%.
                        159,184 16% increase.   Deaths 2953 up 22%.
                        184,183 16% increase.   Deaths 3721 up 26%
                        209,071 14% increase.  Deaths 4633 up 25%
                        238,820, 14% increase.   Deaths 5758, up 24%."
                        331,234, 11.5% daily* increase. Deaths 9458, 18% daily* increase.
                        364,723, 10% increase. Deaths 10,689, 13% increase.
                        386,817, 6% increase. Deaths 12,285 15% increase.
                        423,135 9% increase. Deaths 14,390 17% increase.

                        454,305 7.3% increase. Deaths 16,267 13% increase.

                        Thank you for your attention to this matter.

                        J 1 Reply Last reply 12 Apr 2020, 22:38
                        • J jon-nyc
                          9 Apr 2020, 22:03

                          @jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:

                          137,294.  13% increase.  Deaths 2414, up 20%.
                          159,184 16% increase.   Deaths 2953 up 22%.
                          184,183 16% increase.   Deaths 3721 up 26%
                          209,071 14% increase.  Deaths 4633 up 25%
                          238,820, 14% increase.   Deaths 5758, up 24%."
                          331,234, 11.5% daily* increase. Deaths 9458, 18% daily* increase.
                          364,723, 10% increase. Deaths 10,689, 13% increase.
                          386,817, 6% increase. Deaths 12,285 15% increase.
                          423,135 9% increase. Deaths 14,390 17% increase.

                          454,305 7.3% increase. Deaths 16,267 13% increase.

                          J Offline
                          J Offline
                          jon-nyc
                          wrote on 12 Apr 2020, 22:38 last edited by
                          #12

                          @jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:

                          159,184 16% increase.   Deaths 2953 up 22%.
                          184,183 16% increase.   Deaths 3721 up 26%
                          209,071 14% increase.  Deaths 4633 up 25%
                          238,820, 14% increase.   Deaths 5758, up 24%."
                          331,234, 11.5% daily* increase. Deaths 9458, 18% daily* increase.
                          364,723, 10% increase. Deaths 10,689, 13% increase.
                          386,817, 6% increase. Deaths 12,285 15% increase.
                          423,135 9% increase. Deaths 14,390 17% increase.
                          454,305 7.3% increase. Deaths 16,267 13% increase.

                          Again three days since I've updated this so I'm computing daily average gains.

                          550,016 6.6% daily increase. Deaths 21,994 10.6% daily increase.

                          Thank you for your attention to this matter.

                          J 1 Reply Last reply 13 Apr 2020, 21:58
                          • KlausK Offline
                            KlausK Offline
                            Klaus
                            wrote on 12 Apr 2020, 22:47 last edited by
                            #13

                            Second derivatives going down?

                            1 Reply Last reply
                            • J Offline
                              J Offline
                              jon-nyc
                              wrote on 12 Apr 2020, 22:50 last edited by
                              #14

                              Yes, for sure. If bumpy along the way.

                              Thank you for your attention to this matter.

                              1 Reply Last reply
                              • J jon-nyc
                                12 Apr 2020, 22:38

                                @jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:

                                159,184 16% increase.   Deaths 2953 up 22%.
                                184,183 16% increase.   Deaths 3721 up 26%
                                209,071 14% increase.  Deaths 4633 up 25%
                                238,820, 14% increase.   Deaths 5758, up 24%."
                                331,234, 11.5% daily* increase. Deaths 9458, 18% daily* increase.
                                364,723, 10% increase. Deaths 10,689, 13% increase.
                                386,817, 6% increase. Deaths 12,285 15% increase.
                                423,135 9% increase. Deaths 14,390 17% increase.
                                454,305 7.3% increase. Deaths 16,267 13% increase.

                                Again three days since I've updated this so I'm computing daily average gains.

                                550,016 6.6% daily increase. Deaths 21,994 10.6% daily increase.

                                J Offline
                                J Offline
                                jon-nyc
                                wrote on 13 Apr 2020, 21:58 last edited by
                                #15

                                @jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:

                                209,071 14% increase.  Deaths 4633 up 25%
                                238,820, 14% increase.   Deaths 5758, up 24%."
                                331,234, 11.5% daily* increase. Deaths 9458, 18% daily* increase.
                                364,723, 10% increase. Deaths 10,689, 13% increase.
                                386,817, 6% increase. Deaths 12,285 15% increase.
                                423,135 9% increase. Deaths 14,390 17% increase.
                                454,305 7.3% increase. Deaths 16,267 13% increase.
                                550,016 6.6% daily increase. Deaths 21,994 10.6% daily increase.

                                577,307 5% increase. Deaths 23,219 up 5.6%

                                Thank you for your attention to this matter.

                                J 1 Reply Last reply 15 Apr 2020, 21:52
                                • J jon-nyc
                                  13 Apr 2020, 21:58

                                  @jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:

                                  209,071 14% increase.  Deaths 4633 up 25%
                                  238,820, 14% increase.   Deaths 5758, up 24%."
                                  331,234, 11.5% daily* increase. Deaths 9458, 18% daily* increase.
                                  364,723, 10% increase. Deaths 10,689, 13% increase.
                                  386,817, 6% increase. Deaths 12,285 15% increase.
                                  423,135 9% increase. Deaths 14,390 17% increase.
                                  454,305 7.3% increase. Deaths 16,267 13% increase.
                                  550,016 6.6% daily increase. Deaths 21,994 10.6% daily increase.

                                  577,307 5% increase. Deaths 23,219 up 5.6%

                                  J Offline
                                  J Offline
                                  jon-nyc
                                  wrote on 15 Apr 2020, 21:52 last edited by
                                  #16

                                  @jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:

                                  209,071 14% increase.  Deaths 4633 up 25%
                                  238,820, 14% increase.   Deaths 5758, up 24%."
                                  331,234, 11.5% daily* increase. Deaths 9458, 18% daily* increase.
                                  364,723, 10% increase. Deaths 10,689, 13% increase.
                                  386,817, 6% increase. Deaths 12,285 15% increase.
                                  423,135 9% increase. Deaths 14,390 17% increase.
                                  454,305 7.3% increase. Deaths 16,267 13% increase.
                                  550,016 6.6% daily increase. Deaths 21,994 10.6% daily increase.
                                  577,307 5% increase. Deaths 23,219 up 5.6%

                                  2 days since update.

                                  632,878 4.7% daily increase. Deaths 27,850 9.5% daily increase.

                                  Thank you for your attention to this matter.

                                  J 1 Reply Last reply 16 Apr 2020, 21:59
                                  • L Offline
                                    L Offline
                                    LuFins Dad
                                    wrote on 16 Apr 2020, 02:24 last edited by
                                    #17

                                    Right, here’s what scares me, a good long stretch at 5% increases.

                                    The Brad

                                    Aqua LetiferA 1 Reply Last reply 16 Apr 2020, 15:58
                                    • L LuFins Dad
                                      16 Apr 2020, 02:24

                                      Right, here’s what scares me, a good long stretch at 5% increases.

                                      Aqua LetiferA Offline
                                      Aqua LetiferA Offline
                                      Aqua Letifer
                                      wrote on 16 Apr 2020, 15:58 last edited by
                                      #18

                                      @LuFins-Dad said in US has a shitload of cases:

                                      Right, here’s what scares me, a good long stretch at 5% increases.

                                      Exactly. We haven't hit <1.0 yet.

                                      Please love yourself.

                                      1 Reply Last reply
                                      • 89th8 Offline
                                        89th8 Offline
                                        89th
                                        wrote on 16 Apr 2020, 17:27 last edited by
                                        #19

                                        Is there a good place to find that growth factor? I know (think) we are getting close to <1.0

                                        Aqua LetiferA 1 Reply Last reply 16 Apr 2020, 22:03
                                        • J jon-nyc
                                          15 Apr 2020, 21:52

                                          @jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:

                                          209,071 14% increase.  Deaths 4633 up 25%
                                          238,820, 14% increase.   Deaths 5758, up 24%."
                                          331,234, 11.5% daily* increase. Deaths 9458, 18% daily* increase.
                                          364,723, 10% increase. Deaths 10,689, 13% increase.
                                          386,817, 6% increase. Deaths 12,285 15% increase.
                                          423,135 9% increase. Deaths 14,390 17% increase.
                                          454,305 7.3% increase. Deaths 16,267 13% increase.
                                          550,016 6.6% daily increase. Deaths 21,994 10.6% daily increase.
                                          577,307 5% increase. Deaths 23,219 up 5.6%

                                          2 days since update.

                                          632,878 4.7% daily increase. Deaths 27,850 9.5% daily increase.

                                          J Offline
                                          J Offline
                                          jon-nyc
                                          wrote on 16 Apr 2020, 21:59 last edited by
                                          #20

                                          @jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:

                                          209,071 14% increase.  Deaths 4633 up 25%
                                          238,820, 14% increase.   Deaths 5758, up 24%."
                                          331,234, 11.5% daily* increase. Deaths 9458, 18% daily* increase.
                                          364,723, 10% increase. Deaths 10,689, 13% increase.
                                          386,817, 6% increase. Deaths 12,285 15% increase.
                                          423,135 9% increase. Deaths 14,390 17% increase.
                                          454,305 7.3% increase. Deaths 16,267 13% increase.
                                          550,016 6.6% daily increase. Deaths 21,994 10.6% daily increase.
                                          577,307 5% increase. Deaths 23,219 up 5.6%
                                          632,878 4.7% daily increase. Deaths 27,850 9.5% daily increase.

                                          658,263 4% increase. Deaths 32,186 up 15.6%

                                          Thank you for your attention to this matter.

                                          J 1 Reply Last reply 17 Apr 2020, 22:02
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