US has a shitload of cases

[jon-nyc]

It's been three days since I updated this.

"53268.  24% increase deaths 696, up 20%
64,767.  22% increase.  Deaths 919, up 32%
82,404.  27% increase.   Deaths 1178, up 28%
100,717.  22% increase.  Deaths 1544, up 31%
121,117. 20% increase.  Deaths 2010, up 30%
137,294.  13% increase.  Deaths 2414, up 20%.
159,184 16% increase.   Deaths 2953 up 22%.
184,183 16% increase.   Deaths 3721 up 26%
209,071 14% increase.  Deaths 4633 up 25%
238,820, 14% increase.   Deaths 5758, up 24%."

331,234, 11.5% daily* increase. Deaths 9458, 18% daily* increase.

(calculated a compound daily average growth rate)

[Loki]

Do you have the trends for Florida? They fell out of the news cycle and I can only see current against an old model.

[jon-nyc]

Yeah look in the ‘NYC is ground zero’ thread, I track the top states there.

[Loki]

Cool. IMHE which had the best trending data and then forecast hasn’t sent an update in days. There is a story lurking there.

Also on the one hand the media was pushing that Trump’s range was unrealistically low and then Bill Gates came out today saying it was too high. It’s becoming very awkward for media types to figure out which narrative to latch on to. They are getting whipsawed.

Let the data speak!

[Copper]

@Loki said in US has a shitload of cases:

Let the data speak!

Accurate data?

You'll probably have to wait until next year for that.

[jon-nyc]

@jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:

"53268.  24% increase deaths 696, up 20%
64,767.  22% increase.  Deaths 919, up 32%
82,404.  27% increase.   Deaths 1178, up 28%
100,717.  22% increase.  Deaths 1544, up 31%
121,117. 20% increase.  Deaths 2010, up 30%
137,294.  13% increase.  Deaths 2414, up 20%.
159,184 16% increase.   Deaths 2953 up 22%.
184,183 16% increase.   Deaths 3721 up 26%
209,071 14% increase.  Deaths 4633 up 25%
238,820, 14% increase.   Deaths 5758, up 24%."
331,234, 11.5% daily* increase. Deaths 9458, 18% daily* increase.

364,723, 10% increase. Deaths 10,689, 13% increase.

Good trend on both fronts. At least 2nd deriv

[mark]

Politicans should just keep their fucking mouths shut about this stuff. Let the data and experts speak.

[jon-nyc]

@jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:

82,404.  27% increase.   Deaths 1178, up 28%
100,717.  22% increase.  Deaths 1544, up 31%
121,117. 20% increase.  Deaths 2010, up 30%
137,294.  13% increase.  Deaths 2414, up 20%.
159,184 16% increase.   Deaths 2953 up 22%.
184,183 16% increase.   Deaths 3721 up 26%
209,071 14% increase.  Deaths 4633 up 25%
238,820, 14% increase.   Deaths 5758, up 24%."
331,234, 11.5% daily* increase. Deaths 9458, 18% daily* increase.
364,723, 10% increase. Deaths 10,689, 13% increase.

386,817, 6% increase. Deaths 12,285 15% increase.

[LuFins Dad]

7 day doubling

[jon-nyc]

@jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:

100,717.  22% increase.  Deaths 1544, up 31%
121,117. 20% increase.  Deaths 2010, up 30%
137,294.  13% increase.  Deaths 2414, up 20%.
159,184 16% increase.   Deaths 2953 up 22%.
184,183 16% increase.   Deaths 3721 up 26%
209,071 14% increase.  Deaths 4633 up 25%
238,820, 14% increase.   Deaths 5758, up 24%."
331,234, 11.5% daily* increase. Deaths 9458, 18% daily* increase.
364,723, 10% increase. Deaths 10,689, 13% increase.
386,817, 6% increase. Deaths 12,285 15% increase.

423,135 9% increase. Deaths 14,390 17% increase.

[jon-nyc]

@jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:

137,294.  13% increase.  Deaths 2414, up 20%.
159,184 16% increase.   Deaths 2953 up 22%.
184,183 16% increase.   Deaths 3721 up 26%
209,071 14% increase.  Deaths 4633 up 25%
238,820, 14% increase.   Deaths 5758, up 24%."
331,234, 11.5% daily* increase. Deaths 9458, 18% daily* increase.
364,723, 10% increase. Deaths 10,689, 13% increase.
386,817, 6% increase. Deaths 12,285 15% increase.
423,135 9% increase. Deaths 14,390 17% increase.

454,305 7.3% increase. Deaths 16,267 13% increase.

[jon-nyc]

@jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:

159,184 16% increase.   Deaths 2953 up 22%.
184,183 16% increase.   Deaths 3721 up 26%
209,071 14% increase.  Deaths 4633 up 25%
238,820, 14% increase.   Deaths 5758, up 24%."
331,234, 11.5% daily* increase. Deaths 9458, 18% daily* increase.
364,723, 10% increase. Deaths 10,689, 13% increase.
386,817, 6% increase. Deaths 12,285 15% increase.
423,135 9% increase. Deaths 14,390 17% increase.
454,305 7.3% increase. Deaths 16,267 13% increase.

Again three days since I've updated this so I'm computing daily average gains.

550,016 6.6% daily increase. Deaths 21,994 10.6% daily increase.

[Klaus]

Second derivatives going down?

[jon-nyc]

Yes, for sure. If bumpy along the way.

[jon-nyc]

@jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:

209,071 14% increase.  Deaths 4633 up 25%
238,820, 14% increase.   Deaths 5758, up 24%."
331,234, 11.5% daily* increase. Deaths 9458, 18% daily* increase.
364,723, 10% increase. Deaths 10,689, 13% increase.
386,817, 6% increase. Deaths 12,285 15% increase.
423,135 9% increase. Deaths 14,390 17% increase.
454,305 7.3% increase. Deaths 16,267 13% increase.
550,016 6.6% daily increase. Deaths 21,994 10.6% daily increase.

577,307 5% increase. Deaths 23,219 up 5.6%

[jon-nyc]

@jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:

209,071 14% increase.  Deaths 4633 up 25%
238,820, 14% increase.   Deaths 5758, up 24%."
331,234, 11.5% daily* increase. Deaths 9458, 18% daily* increase.
364,723, 10% increase. Deaths 10,689, 13% increase.
386,817, 6% increase. Deaths 12,285 15% increase.
423,135 9% increase. Deaths 14,390 17% increase.
454,305 7.3% increase. Deaths 16,267 13% increase.
550,016 6.6% daily increase. Deaths 21,994 10.6% daily increase.
577,307 5% increase. Deaths 23,219 up 5.6%

2 days since update.

632,878 4.7% daily increase. Deaths 27,850 9.5% daily increase.

[LuFins Dad]

Right, here’s what scares me, a good long stretch at 5% increases.

[Aqua Letifer]

@LuFins-Dad said in US has a shitload of cases:

Right, here’s what scares me, a good long stretch at 5% increases.

Exactly. We haven't hit <1.0 yet.

[89th]

Is there a good place to find that growth factor? I know (think) we are getting close to <1.0

[jon-nyc]

@jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:

209,071 14% increase.  Deaths 4633 up 25%
238,820, 14% increase.   Deaths 5758, up 24%."
331,234, 11.5% daily* increase. Deaths 9458, 18% daily* increase.
364,723, 10% increase. Deaths 10,689, 13% increase.
386,817, 6% increase. Deaths 12,285 15% increase.
423,135 9% increase. Deaths 14,390 17% increase.
454,305 7.3% increase. Deaths 16,267 13% increase.
550,016 6.6% daily increase. Deaths 21,994 10.6% daily increase.
577,307 5% increase. Deaths 23,219 up 5.6%
632,878 4.7% daily increase. Deaths 27,850 9.5% daily increase.

658,263 4% increase. Deaths 32,186 up 15.6%