US has a shitload of cases

[LuFins Dad]

7 day doubling

[jon-nyc]

@jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:

100,717.  22% increase.  Deaths 1544, up 31%
121,117. 20% increase.  Deaths 2010, up 30%
137,294.  13% increase.  Deaths 2414, up 20%.
159,184 16% increase.   Deaths 2953 up 22%.
184,183 16% increase.   Deaths 3721 up 26%
209,071 14% increase.  Deaths 4633 up 25%
238,820, 14% increase.   Deaths 5758, up 24%."
331,234, 11.5% daily* increase. Deaths 9458, 18% daily* increase.
364,723, 10% increase. Deaths 10,689, 13% increase.
386,817, 6% increase. Deaths 12,285 15% increase.

423,135 9% increase. Deaths 14,390 17% increase.

[jon-nyc]

@jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:

137,294.  13% increase.  Deaths 2414, up 20%.
159,184 16% increase.   Deaths 2953 up 22%.
184,183 16% increase.   Deaths 3721 up 26%
209,071 14% increase.  Deaths 4633 up 25%
238,820, 14% increase.   Deaths 5758, up 24%."
331,234, 11.5% daily* increase. Deaths 9458, 18% daily* increase.
364,723, 10% increase. Deaths 10,689, 13% increase.
386,817, 6% increase. Deaths 12,285 15% increase.
423,135 9% increase. Deaths 14,390 17% increase.

454,305 7.3% increase. Deaths 16,267 13% increase.

[jon-nyc]

@jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:

159,184 16% increase.   Deaths 2953 up 22%.
184,183 16% increase.   Deaths 3721 up 26%
209,071 14% increase.  Deaths 4633 up 25%
238,820, 14% increase.   Deaths 5758, up 24%."
331,234, 11.5% daily* increase. Deaths 9458, 18% daily* increase.
364,723, 10% increase. Deaths 10,689, 13% increase.
386,817, 6% increase. Deaths 12,285 15% increase.
423,135 9% increase. Deaths 14,390 17% increase.
454,305 7.3% increase. Deaths 16,267 13% increase.

Again three days since I've updated this so I'm computing daily average gains.

550,016 6.6% daily increase. Deaths 21,994 10.6% daily increase.

[Klaus]

Second derivatives going down?

[jon-nyc]

Yes, for sure. If bumpy along the way.

[jon-nyc]

@jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:

209,071 14% increase.  Deaths 4633 up 25%
238,820, 14% increase.   Deaths 5758, up 24%."
331,234, 11.5% daily* increase. Deaths 9458, 18% daily* increase.
364,723, 10% increase. Deaths 10,689, 13% increase.
386,817, 6% increase. Deaths 12,285 15% increase.
423,135 9% increase. Deaths 14,390 17% increase.
454,305 7.3% increase. Deaths 16,267 13% increase.
550,016 6.6% daily increase. Deaths 21,994 10.6% daily increase.

577,307 5% increase. Deaths 23,219 up 5.6%

[jon-nyc]

@jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:

209,071 14% increase.  Deaths 4633 up 25%
238,820, 14% increase.   Deaths 5758, up 24%."
331,234, 11.5% daily* increase. Deaths 9458, 18% daily* increase.
364,723, 10% increase. Deaths 10,689, 13% increase.
386,817, 6% increase. Deaths 12,285 15% increase.
423,135 9% increase. Deaths 14,390 17% increase.
454,305 7.3% increase. Deaths 16,267 13% increase.
550,016 6.6% daily increase. Deaths 21,994 10.6% daily increase.
577,307 5% increase. Deaths 23,219 up 5.6%

2 days since update.

632,878 4.7% daily increase. Deaths 27,850 9.5% daily increase.

[LuFins Dad]

Right, here’s what scares me, a good long stretch at 5% increases.

[Aqua Letifer]

@LuFins-Dad said in US has a shitload of cases:

Right, here’s what scares me, a good long stretch at 5% increases.

Exactly. We haven't hit <1.0 yet.

[89th]

Is there a good place to find that growth factor? I know (think) we are getting close to <1.0

[jon-nyc]

@jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:

209,071 14% increase.  Deaths 4633 up 25%
238,820, 14% increase.   Deaths 5758, up 24%."
331,234, 11.5% daily* increase. Deaths 9458, 18% daily* increase.
364,723, 10% increase. Deaths 10,689, 13% increase.
386,817, 6% increase. Deaths 12,285 15% increase.
423,135 9% increase. Deaths 14,390 17% increase.
454,305 7.3% increase. Deaths 16,267 13% increase.
550,016 6.6% daily increase. Deaths 21,994 10.6% daily increase.
577,307 5% increase. Deaths 23,219 up 5.6%
632,878 4.7% daily increase. Deaths 27,850 9.5% daily increase.

658,263 4% increase. Deaths 32,186 up 15.6%

[Aqua Letifer]

@89th said in US has a shitload of cases:

Is there a good place to find that growth factor? I know (think) we are getting close to <1.0

We are but like jon, I don't think we're ever going to get there.

[jon-nyc]

I would love for the Tibco estimates to be true.

I keep meaning to look into the calculations with more detail.

The reason I'm skeptical is the study from Wuhan and the study form Imperial College re Europe. Those were deep dives (which I've yet to fully dive into myself) into estimating R0 in countries that are ahead of us and/or did a stiricter lockdown. And they we not likely there.

I worry the tibco calculations are less rigorous, something arithmetically generated with each new day's data. But I don't know enough yet.

[jon-nyc]

But to answer your question 89, look here and scroll down. The site is pretty nonfunctional on mobile devices.

https://demo.spotfire.cloud.tibco.com/spotfire/wp/analysis?file=/Public/COVID19 Insights&waid=P2gtdoUCWEGNNI5H79yua-1606130a13Atwl&wavid=0&options=3-0

[89th]

Great site. Got better as I dug into each section, thanks!

@Aqua-Letifer What do you mean we're ever going to get there. I'd imagine very soon (in the next 2-3 weeks) we'll have fewer cases "today" than there were "yesterday" on a consistent basis.

[Aqua Letifer]

@89th I think slightly more people will continue to get infected per day than we have recoveries per day. Would be great to be wrong about that.

[89th]

I see, sorry I haven't been following the stats as closely. I was referring to the growth factor of "new cases today < new cases yesterday", irregardless (kidding, regardless) of recoveries.

[jon-nyc]

@jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:

209,071 14% increase.  Deaths 4633 up 25%
238,820, 14% increase.   Deaths 5758, up 24%."
331,234, 11.5% daily* increase. Deaths 9458, 18% daily* increase.
364,723, 10% increase. Deaths 10,689, 13% increase.
386,817, 6% increase. Deaths 12,285 15% increase.
423,135 9% increase. Deaths 14,390 17% increase.
454,305 7.3% increase. Deaths 16,267 13% increase.
550,016 6.6% daily increase. Deaths 21,994 10.6% daily increase.
577,307 5% increase. Deaths 23,219 up 5.6%
632,878 4.7% daily increase. Deaths 27,850 9.5% daily increase.
658,263 4% increase. Deaths 32,186 up 15.6%

692,169 5.2% increase. Deaths 32,232 up 0.14% increase. I'm thinking yesterday's number was wrong???

[jon-nyc]

@jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:

331,234, 11.5% daily* increase. Deaths 9458, 18% daily* increase.
364,723, 10% increase. Deaths 10,689, 13% increase.
386,817, 6% increase. Deaths 12,285 15% increase.
423,135 9% increase. Deaths 14,390 17% increase.
454,305 7.3% increase. Deaths 16,267 13% increase.
550,016 6.6% daily increase. Deaths 21,994 10.6% daily increase.
577,307 5% increase. Deaths 23,219 up 5.6%
632,878 4.7% daily increase. Deaths 27,850 9.5% daily increase.
658,263 4% increase. Deaths 32,186 up 15.6%
692,169 5.2% increase. Deaths 32,232 up 0.14% increase.

726,645 5% increase. Deaths 37,938 up 17.7%

At what point does a flat % increase go from being mildly encouraging to mildly concerning?