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The New Coffee Room

  1. TNCR
  2. General Discussion
  3. First Doses First strategy

First Doses First strategy

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  • jon-nycJ Online
    jon-nycJ Online
    jon-nyc
    wrote on last edited by
    #14

    FWIW the UK implementation is allowing up to 12 weeks to get the second dose.

    It would be interesting to see the modeling behind their decision.

    Only non-witches get due process.

    • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
    1 Reply Last reply
    • jon-nycJ Online
      jon-nycJ Online
      jon-nyc
      wrote on last edited by
      #15

      On the other hand, if we really wanted to maximize lives saved, we could greatly improve our strategy without resorting to FDF, simply by prioritizing based on who would benefit the most from early vaccines rather than who 'deserves' an early vaccine.

      Only non-witches get due process.

      • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
      RichR 1 Reply Last reply
      • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

        On the other hand, if we really wanted to maximize lives saved, we could greatly improve our strategy without resorting to FDF, simply by prioritizing based on who would benefit the most from early vaccines rather than who 'deserves' an early vaccine.

        RichR Offline
        RichR Offline
        Rich
        wrote on last edited by
        #16

        @jon-nyc Do you have numbers on roughly how many are getting it based on the "deserves" it designation? I'm not questioning your basic point, just genuinely interested in the numbers.

        My 18 year old son who works at McDonalds, (on the grill, with approximately 1 other masked person within 6' of him) has been informed he'll be in group 1c for Connecticut. It was initially going to be 1b, but then they got pushed back.

        1 Reply Last reply
        • jon-nycJ Online
          jon-nycJ Online
          jon-nyc
          wrote on last edited by
          #17

          As a first approximation take 90% of the essential workers being prioritized above senior citizens. We're talking 10s of millions nationwide.

          Only non-witches get due process.

          • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
          1 Reply Last reply
          • jon-nycJ Online
            jon-nycJ Online
            jon-nyc
            wrote on last edited by
            #18

            Here is NY announcement the other day:

            Starting on Monday, New York State will begin scheduling vaccinations for "Phase 1b" groups—the next category of people eligible for the vaccine. This group includes: People aged 75 and up; education workers (pre-K through 12 teachers and education workers, licensed and registered child care providers, and school-bus drivers); first responders (local police, State Police, Sheriff's Office employees, professional and volunteer firefighters); EMS workers (including professional and volunteer paramedics and EMTs); public transit workers (airline and airport employees, passenger railroad employees, subway and mass transit employees, ferry employees, Port Authority employees, and public bus drivers); and public safety workers. About 3.2 million additional New Yorkers will now be eligible.

            Note that last sentence. Give me 3.2MM vaccines and I could vaccinate everyone in the state over 62. (figuratively). Deaths would all but cease in Feb.

            THat's without even doubling using a FDF strategy.

            Only non-witches get due process.

            • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
            1 Reply Last reply
            • jon-nycJ Online
              jon-nycJ Online
              jon-nyc
              wrote on last edited by
              #19

              Median age in ICU for covid is ~65, median age in hospital is ~62.

              So vaccinating 62+ cuts hospital utilization in half.

              Only non-witches get due process.

              • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
              1 Reply Last reply
              • MikM Offline
                MikM Offline
                Mik
                wrote on last edited by
                #20

                Still, you are changing strategy based on hope, not data. Bad idea.

                https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/01/world/dr-fauci-advises-against-the-british-approach-of-delaying-a-second-dose-of-vaccine.html

                “I am fond of pigs. Dogs look up to us. Cats look down on us. Pigs treat us as equals.” ~Winston S. Churchill

                1 Reply Last reply
                • RichR Offline
                  RichR Offline
                  Rich
                  wrote on last edited by
                  #21

                  Wow. It still makes a certain amount of sense to me to place 'front line' medical staff at or near the front of the line. (even if using the 'deserves it' reasoning) But all of these other categories ahead of those who clearly have the worst outcomes?

                  It'll be interesting to watch the charts on numbers of deaths and how they relate to what strategy each state uses.

                  I wonder what level of accountability there will or won't be for these decisions. I have a guess...

                  1 Reply Last reply
                  • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

                    The UK is already doing this. Seems almost certain to save lives on net.

                    https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2021/01/08/politics/biden-vaccine-strategy/index.html?__twitter_impression=true

                    L Offline
                    L Offline
                    Loki
                    wrote on last edited by
                    #22

                    I suspect we know exactly how the vaccine behaves and the real issue is convincing the public.

                    We have likely made up risk that really doesn’t exist.

                    1 Reply Last reply
                    • MikM Offline
                      MikM Offline
                      Mik
                      wrote on last edited by
                      #23

                      Show credible data that contradicts Fauci. My suspicion is this is likely the only thing Biden can do differently than Trump and perhaps claim victory.

                      But what happened to following the experts' advice? Gone like a fart in the wind.

                      “I am fond of pigs. Dogs look up to us. Cats look down on us. Pigs treat us as equals.” ~Winston S. Churchill

                      JollyJ kluursK 2 Replies Last reply
                      • MikM Mik

                        Show credible data that contradicts Fauci. My suspicion is this is likely the only thing Biden can do differently than Trump and perhaps claim victory.

                        But what happened to following the experts' advice? Gone like a fart in the wind.

                        JollyJ Offline
                        JollyJ Offline
                        Jolly
                        wrote on last edited by
                        #24

                        @mik said in First Doses First strategy:

                        Show credible data that contradicts Fauci. My suspicion is this is likely the only thing Biden can do differently than Trump and perhaps claim victory.

                        But what happened to following the experts' advice? Gone like a fart in the wind.

                        Yep.

                        “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

                        Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

                        1 Reply Last reply
                        • MikM Mik

                          Show credible data that contradicts Fauci. My suspicion is this is likely the only thing Biden can do differently than Trump and perhaps claim victory.

                          But what happened to following the experts' advice? Gone like a fart in the wind.

                          kluursK Offline
                          kluursK Offline
                          kluurs
                          wrote on last edited by
                          #25

                          @mik Do the time tested strategy of getting other experts.

                          1 Reply Last reply
                          • LuFins DadL Offline
                            LuFins DadL Offline
                            LuFins Dad
                            wrote on last edited by
                            #26

                            Which approach helps Social Security Solvency?

                            The Brad

                            jon-nycJ 1 Reply Last reply
                            • LuFins DadL LuFins Dad

                              Which approach helps Social Security Solvency?

                              jon-nycJ Online
                              jon-nycJ Online
                              jon-nyc
                              wrote on last edited by
                              #27

                              @lufins-dad

                              Live virus injections. Lots of it. Everyone over 50.

                              Only non-witches get due process.

                              • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
                              1 Reply Last reply
                              • jon-nycJ Online
                                jon-nycJ Online
                                jon-nyc
                                wrote on last edited by
                                #28

                                Trump administration now backs First Dose First strategy.

                                https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/01/12/trump-covid-vaccine-second-shot/

                                Only non-witches get due process.

                                • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
                                L 1 Reply Last reply
                                • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

                                  Trump administration now backs First Dose First strategy.

                                  https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/01/12/trump-covid-vaccine-second-shot/

                                  L Offline
                                  L Offline
                                  Loki
                                  wrote on last edited by
                                  #29

                                  @jon-nyc said in First Doses First strategy:

                                  Trump administration now backs First Dose First strategy.

                                  https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/01/12/trump-covid-vaccine-second-shot/

                                  Excellent. Now let’s get that Astra Zeneca vaccine out so that we can life back to normal ASAP. At least to those willing. I’m in. Heck I would take the J&J one today.

                                  1 Reply Last reply
                                  • LuFins DadL Offline
                                    LuFins DadL Offline
                                    LuFins Dad
                                    wrote on last edited by
                                    #30

                                    What do the doctors say? What do the vaccine developers recommend?

                                    The Brad

                                    L jon-nycJ 2 Replies Last reply
                                    • LuFins DadL LuFins Dad

                                      What do the doctors say? What do the vaccine developers recommend?

                                      L Offline
                                      L Offline
                                      Loki
                                      wrote on last edited by
                                      #31

                                      @lufins-dad said in First Doses First strategy:

                                      What do the doctors say? What do the vaccine developers recommend?

                                      Liability

                                      1 Reply Last reply
                                      • LuFins DadL LuFins Dad

                                        What do the doctors say? What do the vaccine developers recommend?

                                        jon-nycJ Online
                                        jon-nycJ Online
                                        jon-nyc
                                        wrote on last edited by
                                        #32

                                        @lufins-dad said in First Doses First strategy:

                                        What do the doctors say? What do the vaccine developers recommend?

                                        Doctors are split and developers are answering the wrong question.

                                        Only non-witches get due process.

                                        • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
                                        1 Reply Last reply
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