First Doses First strategy
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“I am fond of pigs. Dogs look up to us. Cats look down on us. Pigs treat us as equals.” ~Winston S. Churchill
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@mik said in First Doses First strategy:
What is the value of more single doses applied if you cannot assure the second in a timely fashion? I think it is unwise until we know production can meet the need.
It’s a good question and I suspect the UK has thought through this and balanced against predicted deaths. We just need to see it in writing. I think they believe timeliness of second dose isn’t key and that second dose could be another vaccine. They will know in about a month if they are right.
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@mik said in First Doses First strategy:
What is the value of more single doses applied if you cannot assure the second in a timely fashion?
Quite high, apparently. We had a thread about it. Moderna showed 80-90% efficacy after the first dose.
So this decision represents the following tradeoff: Double the number of people being vaccinated now, accept the risk that some people will get their second shot late.
With 3-4k deaths per day, it seems obvious that it will save lives.
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I think the question of one dose is not so much the efficacy but rather how long does it sustain immunity without the booster.
If it’s a question of say 80% efficacy but it lasts, then fine. But if one shot is not enough for at least half a year immunity then maybe not.
No data on it and no question that Pfizer or moderna can’t sign off on something without the data.
Fixed the typos. Sorry
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We've given our 8MM shots I think, holding another 8MM in reserve.
16MM shots would have covered everyone in the US 75 and over. THat's most of the deaths.
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@bachophile said in First Doses First strategy:
I think the question of one dose is not so much the efficacy but rather how long does it sustain immunity without the booster.
Right, but the FDF strategy isn't 'fuck the second dose', it's just relying on future deliveries to provide it. In practice there'd be a mix of when people got the second shot.
Of course Moderna and BioNtech can't sign off because the question they'd be asked to consider: "is it ok to add uncertainty as to when the second dose will come" can only be answered in the negative. But the question to society as a whole is to weigh that risk against the benefit of vaccinating twice as fast in the initial months.
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FWIW the UK implementation is allowing up to 12 weeks to get the second dose.
It would be interesting to see the modeling behind their decision.
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On the other hand, if we really wanted to maximize lives saved, we could greatly improve our strategy without resorting to FDF, simply by prioritizing based on who would benefit the most from early vaccines rather than who 'deserves' an early vaccine.
DON’T let them eat cake.
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@jon-nyc Do you have numbers on roughly how many are getting it based on the "deserves" it designation? I'm not questioning your basic point, just genuinely interested in the numbers.
My 18 year old son who works at McDonalds, (on the grill, with approximately 1 other masked person within 6' of him) has been informed he'll be in group 1c for Connecticut. It was initially going to be 1b, but then they got pushed back.
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As a first approximation take 90% of the essential workers being prioritized above senior citizens. We're talking 10s of millions nationwide.
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Here is NY announcement the other day:
Starting on Monday, New York State will begin scheduling vaccinations for "Phase 1b" groups—the next category of people eligible for the vaccine. This group includes: People aged 75 and up; education workers (pre-K through 12 teachers and education workers, licensed and registered child care providers, and school-bus drivers); first responders (local police, State Police, Sheriff's Office employees, professional and volunteer firefighters); EMS workers (including professional and volunteer paramedics and EMTs); public transit workers (airline and airport employees, passenger railroad employees, subway and mass transit employees, ferry employees, Port Authority employees, and public bus drivers); and public safety workers. About 3.2 million additional New Yorkers will now be eligible.
Note that last sentence. Give me 3.2MM vaccines and I could vaccinate everyone in the state over 62. (figuratively). Deaths would all but cease in Feb.
THat's without even doubling using a FDF strategy.
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Median age in ICU for covid is ~65, median age in hospital is ~62.
So vaccinating 62+ cuts hospital utilization in half.
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Still, you are changing strategy based on hope, not data. Bad idea.
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Wow. It still makes a certain amount of sense to me to place 'front line' medical staff at or near the front of the line. (even if using the 'deserves it' reasoning) But all of these other categories ahead of those who clearly have the worst outcomes?
It'll be interesting to watch the charts on numbers of deaths and how they relate to what strategy each state uses.
I wonder what level of accountability there will or won't be for these decisions. I have a guess...
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“I am fond of pigs. Dogs look up to us. Cats look down on us. Pigs treat us as equals.” ~Winston S. Churchill
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@mik said in First Doses First strategy:
Show credible data that contradicts Fauci. My suspicion is this is likely the only thing Biden can do differently than Trump and perhaps claim victory.
But what happened to following the experts' advice? Gone like a fart in the wind.
Yep.
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Which approach helps Social Security Solvency?
Me/rry/Christmas
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Live virus injections. Lots of it. Everyone over 50.
