First Doses First strategy
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I think the question of one dose is not so much the efficacy but rather how long does it sustain immunity without the booster.
If it’s a question of say 80% efficacy but it lasts, then fine. But if one shot is not enough for at least half a year immunity then maybe not.
No data on it and no question that Pfizer or moderna can’t sign off on something without the data.
Fixed the typos. Sorry
wrote on 11 Jan 2021, 15:29 last edited by@bachophile said in First Doses First strategy:
I think the question of one dose is not so much the efficacy but rather how long does it sustain immunity without the booster.
Right, but the FDF strategy isn't 'fuck the second dose', it's just relying on future deliveries to provide it. In practice there'd be a mix of when people got the second shot.
Of course Moderna and BioNtech can't sign off because the question they'd be asked to consider: "is it ok to add uncertainty as to when the second dose will come" can only be answered in the negative. But the question to society as a whole is to weigh that risk against the benefit of vaccinating twice as fast in the initial months.
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wrote on 11 Jan 2021, 15:34 last edited by
FWIW the UK implementation is allowing up to 12 weeks to get the second dose.
It would be interesting to see the modeling behind their decision.
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wrote on 11 Jan 2021, 15:36 last edited by
On the other hand, if we really wanted to maximize lives saved, we could greatly improve our strategy without resorting to FDF, simply by prioritizing based on who would benefit the most from early vaccines rather than who 'deserves' an early vaccine.
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On the other hand, if we really wanted to maximize lives saved, we could greatly improve our strategy without resorting to FDF, simply by prioritizing based on who would benefit the most from early vaccines rather than who 'deserves' an early vaccine.
wrote on 11 Jan 2021, 15:42 last edited by@jon-nyc Do you have numbers on roughly how many are getting it based on the "deserves" it designation? I'm not questioning your basic point, just genuinely interested in the numbers.
My 18 year old son who works at McDonalds, (on the grill, with approximately 1 other masked person within 6' of him) has been informed he'll be in group 1c for Connecticut. It was initially going to be 1b, but then they got pushed back.
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wrote on 11 Jan 2021, 15:45 last edited by
As a first approximation take 90% of the essential workers being prioritized above senior citizens. We're talking 10s of millions nationwide.
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wrote on 11 Jan 2021, 15:49 last edited by
Here is NY announcement the other day:
Starting on Monday, New York State will begin scheduling vaccinations for "Phase 1b" groups—the next category of people eligible for the vaccine. This group includes: People aged 75 and up; education workers (pre-K through 12 teachers and education workers, licensed and registered child care providers, and school-bus drivers); first responders (local police, State Police, Sheriff's Office employees, professional and volunteer firefighters); EMS workers (including professional and volunteer paramedics and EMTs); public transit workers (airline and airport employees, passenger railroad employees, subway and mass transit employees, ferry employees, Port Authority employees, and public bus drivers); and public safety workers. About 3.2 million additional New Yorkers will now be eligible.
Note that last sentence. Give me 3.2MM vaccines and I could vaccinate everyone in the state over 62. (figuratively). Deaths would all but cease in Feb.
THat's without even doubling using a FDF strategy.
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wrote on 11 Jan 2021, 15:54 last edited by
Median age in ICU for covid is ~65, median age in hospital is ~62.
So vaccinating 62+ cuts hospital utilization in half.
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wrote on 11 Jan 2021, 16:00 last edited by
Still, you are changing strategy based on hope, not data. Bad idea.
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wrote on 11 Jan 2021, 16:05 last edited by
Wow. It still makes a certain amount of sense to me to place 'front line' medical staff at or near the front of the line. (even if using the 'deserves it' reasoning) But all of these other categories ahead of those who clearly have the worst outcomes?
It'll be interesting to watch the charts on numbers of deaths and how they relate to what strategy each state uses.
I wonder what level of accountability there will or won't be for these decisions. I have a guess...
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The UK is already doing this. Seems almost certain to save lives on net.
wrote on 11 Jan 2021, 16:16 last edited byI suspect we know exactly how the vaccine behaves and the real issue is convincing the public.
We have likely made up risk that really doesn’t exist.
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wrote on 11 Jan 2021, 16:33 last edited by
Show credible data that contradicts Fauci. My suspicion is this is likely the only thing Biden can do differently than Trump and perhaps claim victory.
But what happened to following the experts' advice? Gone like a fart in the wind.
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Show credible data that contradicts Fauci. My suspicion is this is likely the only thing Biden can do differently than Trump and perhaps claim victory.
But what happened to following the experts' advice? Gone like a fart in the wind.
wrote on 11 Jan 2021, 17:19 last edited by@mik said in First Doses First strategy:
Show credible data that contradicts Fauci. My suspicion is this is likely the only thing Biden can do differently than Trump and perhaps claim victory.
But what happened to following the experts' advice? Gone like a fart in the wind.
Yep.
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Show credible data that contradicts Fauci. My suspicion is this is likely the only thing Biden can do differently than Trump and perhaps claim victory.
But what happened to following the experts' advice? Gone like a fart in the wind.
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wrote on 11 Jan 2021, 17:29 last edited by
Which approach helps Social Security Solvency?
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Which approach helps Social Security Solvency?
wrote on 11 Jan 2021, 17:41 last edited byLive virus injections. Lots of it. Everyone over 50.
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wrote on 13 Jan 2021, 17:52 last edited by
Trump administration now backs First Dose First strategy.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/01/12/trump-covid-vaccine-second-shot/
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Trump administration now backs First Dose First strategy.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/01/12/trump-covid-vaccine-second-shot/
wrote on 13 Jan 2021, 18:37 last edited by@jon-nyc said in First Doses First strategy:
Trump administration now backs First Dose First strategy.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/01/12/trump-covid-vaccine-second-shot/
Excellent. Now let’s get that Astra Zeneca vaccine out so that we can life back to normal ASAP. At least to those willing. I’m in. Heck I would take the J&J one today.
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wrote on 13 Jan 2021, 18:44 last edited by
What do the doctors say? What do the vaccine developers recommend?
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What do the doctors say? What do the vaccine developers recommend?
wrote on 13 Jan 2021, 19:22 last edited by@lufins-dad said in First Doses First strategy:
What do the doctors say? What do the vaccine developers recommend?
Liability
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What do the doctors say? What do the vaccine developers recommend?
wrote on 13 Jan 2021, 20:16 last edited by@lufins-dad said in First Doses First strategy:
What do the doctors say? What do the vaccine developers recommend?
Doctors are split and developers are answering the wrong question.