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  3. How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election

How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election

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  • jon-nycJ Online
    jon-nycJ Online
    jon-nyc
    wrote on last edited by
    #6

    Maybe it was 74 last time. I think 70 is the low water mark in modern times

    Only non-witches get due process.

    • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
    1 Reply Last reply
    • jon-nycJ Online
      jon-nycJ Online
      jon-nyc
      wrote on last edited by
      #7

      Results from the actual poll. Interesting numbers that LD omitted are the Jews who normally vote R but will vote D this time.

      IMG_0465.jpeg

      Only non-witches get due process.

      • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
      HoraceH LuFins DadL 2 Replies Last reply
      • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

        Haven’t met any but I’ve heard they exist.

        HoraceH Offline
        HoraceH Offline
        Horace
        wrote on last edited by
        #8

        @jon-nyc said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:

        Haven’t met any

        You mean, no Jewish person has told you they're switching their vote.

        Education is extremely important.

        1 Reply Last reply
        • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

          Results from the actual poll. Interesting numbers that LD omitted are the Jews who normally vote R but will vote D this time.

          IMG_0465.jpeg

          HoraceH Offline
          HoraceH Offline
          Horace
          wrote on last edited by
          #9

          @jon-nyc said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:

          Results from the actual poll. Interesting numbers that LD omitted are the Jews who normally vote R but will vote D this time.

          IMG_0465.jpeg

          Only the top two categories imply a change. Regarding the second category, I wonder if the implication that they voted Trump in 2016 or 2020 is actually true.

          Education is extremely important.

          LuFins DadL 1 Reply Last reply
          • kluursK Offline
            kluursK Offline
            kluurs
            wrote on last edited by
            #10

            Rumor from Tik Tok (where facts flee for a healthy vacation), is that Trump got $100 million from Adelman last time to recognize Jerusalem as Israel's capital and will get a similar amount this time to recognize the annexation of the West Bank. Stay tuned. Seriously, there is an amazing amount of anti-Israel videos on TT.

            1 Reply Last reply
            • JollyJ Offline
              JollyJ Offline
              Jolly
              wrote on last edited by
              #11

              AFAIC, Israel can have the West Bank.

              “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

              Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

              1 Reply Last reply
              • 89th8 Offline
                89th8 Offline
                89th
                wrote on last edited by
                #12

                You'd think rich, religious, conservative, and pro-Israel people would vote Republican more often.

                1 Reply Last reply
                • HoraceH Horace

                  @jon-nyc said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:

                  Results from the actual poll. Interesting numbers that LD omitted are the Jews who normally vote R but will vote D this time.

                  IMG_0465.jpeg

                  Only the top two categories imply a change. Regarding the second category, I wonder if the implication that they voted Trump in 2016 or 2020 is actually true.

                  LuFins DadL Offline
                  LuFins DadL Offline
                  LuFins Dad
                  wrote on last edited by
                  #13

                  @Horace said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:

                  @jon-nyc said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:

                  Results from the actual poll. Interesting numbers that LD omitted are the Jews who normally vote R but will vote D this time.

                  IMG_0465.jpeg

                  Only the top two categories imply a change. Regarding the second category, I wonder if the implication that they voted Trump in 2016 or 2020 is actually true.

                  I didn’t read through the article enough to see that there was a group of “Republican” voters that were going democrat this time. In the context of the point of the poll and the article, that seems unlikely. Far more likely that there were a few never Trumpers in there making their voices heard…

                  The Brad

                  1 Reply Last reply
                  • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

                    Results from the actual poll. Interesting numbers that LD omitted are the Jews who normally vote R but will vote D this time.

                    IMG_0465.jpeg

                    LuFins DadL Offline
                    LuFins DadL Offline
                    LuFins Dad
                    wrote on last edited by
                    #14

                    @jon-nyc said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:

                    Results from the actual poll. Interesting numbers that LD omitted are the Jews who normally vote R but will vote D this time.

                    IMG_0465.jpeg

                    Even if there are 4 of Jewish voters that were dropping support for Trump, it’s still a new loss of well over 10% of the Jewish support for the Dem leadership. That is extremely significant, and is unsustainable for their traditional voting block. Everything I read says the Dems need to maintain X% of Jewish voters, Y% of Blacks, Z% of Hispanics. Losing any one of those spells defeat. Yet all of the crosstabs suggest they are losing ALL of those demos. So where are the replacement votes coming from? I strongly suspect nowhere, and we’re seeing an LV error by the various polling groups.

                    The Brad

                    George KG jon-nycJ 2 Replies Last reply
                    • jon-nycJ Online
                      jon-nycJ Online
                      jon-nyc
                      wrote on last edited by
                      #15

                      Maybe there’s a little wishcasting going on when two separate people on this thread assume the ‘was Trump now D’ voters are faking it while the ‘was D now Trump’ voters are legit.

                      Only non-witches get due process.

                      • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
                      LuFins DadL HoraceH 2 Replies Last reply
                      • LuFins DadL LuFins Dad

                        @jon-nyc said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:

                        Results from the actual poll. Interesting numbers that LD omitted are the Jews who normally vote R but will vote D this time.

                        IMG_0465.jpeg

                        Even if there are 4 of Jewish voters that were dropping support for Trump, it’s still a new loss of well over 10% of the Jewish support for the Dem leadership. That is extremely significant, and is unsustainable for their traditional voting block. Everything I read says the Dems need to maintain X% of Jewish voters, Y% of Blacks, Z% of Hispanics. Losing any one of those spells defeat. Yet all of the crosstabs suggest they are losing ALL of those demos. So where are the replacement votes coming from? I strongly suspect nowhere, and we’re seeing an LV error by the various polling groups.

                        George KG Offline
                        George KG Offline
                        George K
                        wrote on last edited by
                        #16

                        @LuFins-Dad said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:

                        . So where are the replacement votes coming from? I strongly suspect nowhere...

                        ...for now.

                        "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

                        The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

                        1 Reply Last reply
                        • JollyJ Offline
                          JollyJ Offline
                          Jolly
                          wrote on last edited by
                          #17

                          They're printing them as we speak.

                          “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

                          Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

                          1 Reply Last reply
                          • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

                            Maybe there’s a little wishcasting going on when two separate people on this thread assume the ‘was Trump now D’ voters are faking it while the ‘was D now Trump’ voters are legit.

                            LuFins DadL Offline
                            LuFins DadL Offline
                            LuFins Dad
                            wrote on last edited by
                            #18

                            @jon-nyc said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:

                            Maybe there’s a little wishcasting going on when two separate people on this thread assume the ‘was Trump now D’ voters are faking it while the ‘was D now Trump’ voters are legit.

                            Not at all, but the poll is about whether antisemitism is specifically causing you to change your vote and how. While there has been the normal far-right antisemitism, that’s been nothing new. If anything, I could see people holding the view that the right is too Pro-Israel and not critical enough, but there’s not been any pro-Hamas individuals in leadership.There’s not been any support and only strong condemnation for the protests on campus. It’s been Republican committees that have pulled liberal university deans and heads in to testify over antisemitism on campus. In the meantime, there are a lot of democrats that have been caught supporting the protests, Hamas, and more than a few Hamas adjacent members of the party. The simple fact is that having that large of a group leave the Republicans over antisemitism seems unlikely. I could see them leaving over January 6, over Trump’s handling of COVID, over the new isolationist elements of the party, over Trump’s personality, or over Trump being the anti-Reagan. But I don’t see them leaving over antisemitism, and that’s what the poll is supposed to be about.

                            Beyond that, the fact that remains is the net loss to Dems is significant.

                            The Brad

                            HoraceH 1 Reply Last reply
                            • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

                              Maybe there’s a little wishcasting going on when two separate people on this thread assume the ‘was Trump now D’ voters are faking it while the ‘was D now Trump’ voters are legit.

                              HoraceH Offline
                              HoraceH Offline
                              Horace
                              wrote on last edited by
                              #19

                              @jon-nyc said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:

                              Maybe there’s a little wishcasting going on when two separate people on this thread assume the ‘was Trump now D’ voters are faking it while the ‘was D now Trump’ voters are legit.

                              There is certainly some wishcasting when one poster notes that no Jew has ever told him that they were changing their vote to Trump, therefore that poster has never met a Jew who will be changing their vote to Trump.

                              For my own curiosity of the real voting patterns of those who say "they usually vote R but will be voting D", I wouldn't wonder if it had been phrased "I voted for Trump but now will be voting D". But that's not how it was phrased.

                              Education is extremely important.

                              LuFins DadL 1 Reply Last reply
                              • LuFins DadL LuFins Dad

                                @jon-nyc said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:

                                Maybe there’s a little wishcasting going on when two separate people on this thread assume the ‘was Trump now D’ voters are faking it while the ‘was D now Trump’ voters are legit.

                                Not at all, but the poll is about whether antisemitism is specifically causing you to change your vote and how. While there has been the normal far-right antisemitism, that’s been nothing new. If anything, I could see people holding the view that the right is too Pro-Israel and not critical enough, but there’s not been any pro-Hamas individuals in leadership.There’s not been any support and only strong condemnation for the protests on campus. It’s been Republican committees that have pulled liberal university deans and heads in to testify over antisemitism on campus. In the meantime, there are a lot of democrats that have been caught supporting the protests, Hamas, and more than a few Hamas adjacent members of the party. The simple fact is that having that large of a group leave the Republicans over antisemitism seems unlikely. I could see them leaving over January 6, over Trump’s handling of COVID, over the new isolationist elements of the party, over Trump’s personality, or over Trump being the anti-Reagan. But I don’t see them leaving over antisemitism, and that’s what the poll is supposed to be about.

                                Beyond that, the fact that remains is the net loss to Dems is significant.

                                HoraceH Offline
                                HoraceH Offline
                                Horace
                                wrote on last edited by
                                #20

                                @LuFins-Dad said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:

                                @jon-nyc said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:

                                Maybe there’s a little wishcasting going on when two separate people on this thread assume the ‘was Trump now D’ voters are faking it while the ‘was D now Trump’ voters are legit.

                                Not at all, but the poll is about whether antisemitism is specifically causing you to change your vote and how. While there has been the normal far-right antisemitism, that’s been nothing new. If anything, I could see people holding the view that the right is too Pro-Israel and not critical enough, but there’s not been any pro-Hamas individuals in leadership.There’s not been any support and only strong condemnation for the protests on campus. It’s been Republican committees that have pulled liberal university deans and heads in to testify over antisemitism on campus. In the meantime, there are a lot of democrats that have been caught supporting the protests, Hamas, and more than a few Hamas adjacent members of the party. The simple fact is that having that large of a group leave the Republicans over antisemitism seems unlikely. I could see them leaving over January 6, over Trump’s handling of COVID, over the new isolationist elements of the party, over Trump’s personality, or over Trump being the anti-Reagan. But I don’t see them leaving over antisemitism, and that’s what the poll is supposed to be about.

                                Yeah but that one guy who called Soros a "money changer", he is indicative of the deep veins of antisemitism that run through the GOP. Now stop wishcasting, LD.

                                Education is extremely important.

                                1 Reply Last reply
                                • HoraceH Horace

                                  @jon-nyc said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:

                                  Maybe there’s a little wishcasting going on when two separate people on this thread assume the ‘was Trump now D’ voters are faking it while the ‘was D now Trump’ voters are legit.

                                  There is certainly some wishcasting when one poster notes that no Jew has ever told him that they were changing their vote to Trump, therefore that poster has never met a Jew who will be changing their vote to Trump.

                                  For my own curiosity of the real voting patterns of those who say "they usually vote R but will be voting D", I wouldn't wonder if it had been phrased "I voted for Trump but now will be voting D". But that's not how it was phrased.

                                  LuFins DadL Offline
                                  LuFins DadL Offline
                                  LuFins Dad
                                  wrote on last edited by
                                  #21

                                  @Horace said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:

                                  @jon-nyc said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:

                                  Maybe there’s a little wishcasting going on when two separate people on this thread assume the ‘was Trump now D’ voters are faking it while the ‘was D now Trump’ voters are legit.

                                  There is certainly some wishcasting when one poster notes that no Jew has ever told him that they were changing their vote to Trump, therefore that poster has never met a Jew who will be changing their vote to Trump.

                                  For my own curiosity of the real voting patterns of those who say "they usually vote R but will be voting D", I wouldn't wonder if it had been phrased "I voted for Trump but now will be voting D". But that's not how it was phrased.

                                  And the idea that it’s over antisemitism stretches the credibility.

                                  The Brad

                                  HoraceH 1 Reply Last reply
                                  • LuFins DadL LuFins Dad

                                    @Horace said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:

                                    @jon-nyc said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:

                                    Maybe there’s a little wishcasting going on when two separate people on this thread assume the ‘was Trump now D’ voters are faking it while the ‘was D now Trump’ voters are legit.

                                    There is certainly some wishcasting when one poster notes that no Jew has ever told him that they were changing their vote to Trump, therefore that poster has never met a Jew who will be changing their vote to Trump.

                                    For my own curiosity of the real voting patterns of those who say "they usually vote R but will be voting D", I wouldn't wonder if it had been phrased "I voted for Trump but now will be voting D". But that's not how it was phrased.

                                    And the idea that it’s over antisemitism stretches the credibility.

                                    HoraceH Offline
                                    HoraceH Offline
                                    Horace
                                    wrote on last edited by
                                    #22

                                    @LuFins-Dad said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:

                                    @Horace said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:

                                    @jon-nyc said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:

                                    Maybe there’s a little wishcasting going on when two separate people on this thread assume the ‘was Trump now D’ voters are faking it while the ‘was D now Trump’ voters are legit.

                                    There is certainly some wishcasting when one poster notes that no Jew has ever told him that they were changing their vote to Trump, therefore that poster has never met a Jew who will be changing their vote to Trump.

                                    For my own curiosity of the real voting patterns of those who say "they usually vote R but will be voting D", I wouldn't wonder if it had been phrased "I voted for Trump but now will be voting D". But that's not how it was phrased.

                                    And the idea that it’s over antisemitism stretches the credibility.

                                    Not if the blatant antisemitism of one's preferred party is merely the cost of doing business to keep Trump from the white house, while ambiguous anecdotes of slips of the tongue by a Republican that sort of seem like something an anti-semite would say, are the real Truth of where the hatred lurks.

                                    Education is extremely important.

                                    1 Reply Last reply
                                    • jon-nycJ Online
                                      jon-nycJ Online
                                      jon-nyc
                                      wrote on last edited by
                                      #23

                                      What is ambiguous about Jewish space lasers? Or money-changing globalists?

                                      Only non-witches get due process.

                                      • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
                                      LuFins DadL HoraceH 2 Replies Last reply
                                      • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

                                        What is ambiguous about Jewish space lasers? Or money-changing globalists?

                                        LuFins DadL Offline
                                        LuFins DadL Offline
                                        LuFins Dad
                                        wrote on last edited by
                                        #24

                                        @jon-nyc said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:

                                        What is ambiguous about Jewish space lasers? Or money-changing globalists?

                                        Nothing. Nothing new, either. That shit’s been going on in the extremes of both parties since well before Donald Trump.

                                        The Brad

                                        1 Reply Last reply
                                        • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

                                          What is ambiguous about Jewish space lasers? Or money-changing globalists?

                                          HoraceH Offline
                                          HoraceH Offline
                                          Horace
                                          wrote on last edited by
                                          #25

                                          @jon-nyc said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:

                                          What is ambiguous about Jewish space lasers? Or money-changing globalists?

                                          MTG is clearly a theorist of Jewish conspiracies, but the guy who said something about soros being a money changing globalist, is a mainstream Republican in his support for Israel. If he's an anti-semite, he's doing it wrong. Much like Israel does genocide wrong, and white supremacists do white supremacy wrong.

                                          Education is extremely important.

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