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  3. How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election

How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election

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  • LuFins DadL LuFins Dad

    @jon-nyc said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:

    Results from the actual poll. Interesting numbers that LD omitted are the Jews who normally vote R but will vote D this time.

    IMG_0465.jpeg

    Even if there are 4 of Jewish voters that were dropping support for Trump, it’s still a new loss of well over 10% of the Jewish support for the Dem leadership. That is extremely significant, and is unsustainable for their traditional voting block. Everything I read says the Dems need to maintain X% of Jewish voters, Y% of Blacks, Z% of Hispanics. Losing any one of those spells defeat. Yet all of the crosstabs suggest they are losing ALL of those demos. So where are the replacement votes coming from? I strongly suspect nowhere, and we’re seeing an LV error by the various polling groups.

    George KG Offline
    George KG Offline
    George K
    wrote on last edited by
    #16

    @LuFins-Dad said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:

    . So where are the replacement votes coming from? I strongly suspect nowhere...

    ...for now.

    "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

    The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

    1 Reply Last reply
    • JollyJ Offline
      JollyJ Offline
      Jolly
      wrote on last edited by
      #17

      They're printing them as we speak.

      “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

      Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

      1 Reply Last reply
      • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

        Maybe there’s a little wishcasting going on when two separate people on this thread assume the ‘was Trump now D’ voters are faking it while the ‘was D now Trump’ voters are legit.

        LuFins DadL Offline
        LuFins DadL Offline
        LuFins Dad
        wrote on last edited by
        #18

        @jon-nyc said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:

        Maybe there’s a little wishcasting going on when two separate people on this thread assume the ‘was Trump now D’ voters are faking it while the ‘was D now Trump’ voters are legit.

        Not at all, but the poll is about whether antisemitism is specifically causing you to change your vote and how. While there has been the normal far-right antisemitism, that’s been nothing new. If anything, I could see people holding the view that the right is too Pro-Israel and not critical enough, but there’s not been any pro-Hamas individuals in leadership.There’s not been any support and only strong condemnation for the protests on campus. It’s been Republican committees that have pulled liberal university deans and heads in to testify over antisemitism on campus. In the meantime, there are a lot of democrats that have been caught supporting the protests, Hamas, and more than a few Hamas adjacent members of the party. The simple fact is that having that large of a group leave the Republicans over antisemitism seems unlikely. I could see them leaving over January 6, over Trump’s handling of COVID, over the new isolationist elements of the party, over Trump’s personality, or over Trump being the anti-Reagan. But I don’t see them leaving over antisemitism, and that’s what the poll is supposed to be about.

        Beyond that, the fact that remains is the net loss to Dems is significant.

        The Brad

        HoraceH 1 Reply Last reply
        • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

          Maybe there’s a little wishcasting going on when two separate people on this thread assume the ‘was Trump now D’ voters are faking it while the ‘was D now Trump’ voters are legit.

          HoraceH Offline
          HoraceH Offline
          Horace
          wrote on last edited by
          #19

          @jon-nyc said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:

          Maybe there’s a little wishcasting going on when two separate people on this thread assume the ‘was Trump now D’ voters are faking it while the ‘was D now Trump’ voters are legit.

          There is certainly some wishcasting when one poster notes that no Jew has ever told him that they were changing their vote to Trump, therefore that poster has never met a Jew who will be changing their vote to Trump.

          For my own curiosity of the real voting patterns of those who say "they usually vote R but will be voting D", I wouldn't wonder if it had been phrased "I voted for Trump but now will be voting D". But that's not how it was phrased.

          Education is extremely important.

          LuFins DadL 1 Reply Last reply
          • LuFins DadL LuFins Dad

            @jon-nyc said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:

            Maybe there’s a little wishcasting going on when two separate people on this thread assume the ‘was Trump now D’ voters are faking it while the ‘was D now Trump’ voters are legit.

            Not at all, but the poll is about whether antisemitism is specifically causing you to change your vote and how. While there has been the normal far-right antisemitism, that’s been nothing new. If anything, I could see people holding the view that the right is too Pro-Israel and not critical enough, but there’s not been any pro-Hamas individuals in leadership.There’s not been any support and only strong condemnation for the protests on campus. It’s been Republican committees that have pulled liberal university deans and heads in to testify over antisemitism on campus. In the meantime, there are a lot of democrats that have been caught supporting the protests, Hamas, and more than a few Hamas adjacent members of the party. The simple fact is that having that large of a group leave the Republicans over antisemitism seems unlikely. I could see them leaving over January 6, over Trump’s handling of COVID, over the new isolationist elements of the party, over Trump’s personality, or over Trump being the anti-Reagan. But I don’t see them leaving over antisemitism, and that’s what the poll is supposed to be about.

            Beyond that, the fact that remains is the net loss to Dems is significant.

            HoraceH Offline
            HoraceH Offline
            Horace
            wrote on last edited by
            #20

            @LuFins-Dad said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:

            @jon-nyc said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:

            Maybe there’s a little wishcasting going on when two separate people on this thread assume the ‘was Trump now D’ voters are faking it while the ‘was D now Trump’ voters are legit.

            Not at all, but the poll is about whether antisemitism is specifically causing you to change your vote and how. While there has been the normal far-right antisemitism, that’s been nothing new. If anything, I could see people holding the view that the right is too Pro-Israel and not critical enough, but there’s not been any pro-Hamas individuals in leadership.There’s not been any support and only strong condemnation for the protests on campus. It’s been Republican committees that have pulled liberal university deans and heads in to testify over antisemitism on campus. In the meantime, there are a lot of democrats that have been caught supporting the protests, Hamas, and more than a few Hamas adjacent members of the party. The simple fact is that having that large of a group leave the Republicans over antisemitism seems unlikely. I could see them leaving over January 6, over Trump’s handling of COVID, over the new isolationist elements of the party, over Trump’s personality, or over Trump being the anti-Reagan. But I don’t see them leaving over antisemitism, and that’s what the poll is supposed to be about.

            Yeah but that one guy who called Soros a "money changer", he is indicative of the deep veins of antisemitism that run through the GOP. Now stop wishcasting, LD.

            Education is extremely important.

            1 Reply Last reply
            • HoraceH Horace

              @jon-nyc said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:

              Maybe there’s a little wishcasting going on when two separate people on this thread assume the ‘was Trump now D’ voters are faking it while the ‘was D now Trump’ voters are legit.

              There is certainly some wishcasting when one poster notes that no Jew has ever told him that they were changing their vote to Trump, therefore that poster has never met a Jew who will be changing their vote to Trump.

              For my own curiosity of the real voting patterns of those who say "they usually vote R but will be voting D", I wouldn't wonder if it had been phrased "I voted for Trump but now will be voting D". But that's not how it was phrased.

              LuFins DadL Offline
              LuFins DadL Offline
              LuFins Dad
              wrote on last edited by
              #21

              @Horace said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:

              @jon-nyc said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:

              Maybe there’s a little wishcasting going on when two separate people on this thread assume the ‘was Trump now D’ voters are faking it while the ‘was D now Trump’ voters are legit.

              There is certainly some wishcasting when one poster notes that no Jew has ever told him that they were changing their vote to Trump, therefore that poster has never met a Jew who will be changing their vote to Trump.

              For my own curiosity of the real voting patterns of those who say "they usually vote R but will be voting D", I wouldn't wonder if it had been phrased "I voted for Trump but now will be voting D". But that's not how it was phrased.

              And the idea that it’s over antisemitism stretches the credibility.

              The Brad

              HoraceH 1 Reply Last reply
              • LuFins DadL LuFins Dad

                @Horace said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:

                @jon-nyc said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:

                Maybe there’s a little wishcasting going on when two separate people on this thread assume the ‘was Trump now D’ voters are faking it while the ‘was D now Trump’ voters are legit.

                There is certainly some wishcasting when one poster notes that no Jew has ever told him that they were changing their vote to Trump, therefore that poster has never met a Jew who will be changing their vote to Trump.

                For my own curiosity of the real voting patterns of those who say "they usually vote R but will be voting D", I wouldn't wonder if it had been phrased "I voted for Trump but now will be voting D". But that's not how it was phrased.

                And the idea that it’s over antisemitism stretches the credibility.

                HoraceH Offline
                HoraceH Offline
                Horace
                wrote on last edited by
                #22

                @LuFins-Dad said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:

                @Horace said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:

                @jon-nyc said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:

                Maybe there’s a little wishcasting going on when two separate people on this thread assume the ‘was Trump now D’ voters are faking it while the ‘was D now Trump’ voters are legit.

                There is certainly some wishcasting when one poster notes that no Jew has ever told him that they were changing their vote to Trump, therefore that poster has never met a Jew who will be changing their vote to Trump.

                For my own curiosity of the real voting patterns of those who say "they usually vote R but will be voting D", I wouldn't wonder if it had been phrased "I voted for Trump but now will be voting D". But that's not how it was phrased.

                And the idea that it’s over antisemitism stretches the credibility.

                Not if the blatant antisemitism of one's preferred party is merely the cost of doing business to keep Trump from the white house, while ambiguous anecdotes of slips of the tongue by a Republican that sort of seem like something an anti-semite would say, are the real Truth of where the hatred lurks.

                Education is extremely important.

                1 Reply Last reply
                • jon-nycJ Online
                  jon-nycJ Online
                  jon-nyc
                  wrote on last edited by
                  #23

                  What is ambiguous about Jewish space lasers? Or money-changing globalists?

                  Only non-witches get due process.

                  • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
                  LuFins DadL HoraceH 2 Replies Last reply
                  • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

                    What is ambiguous about Jewish space lasers? Or money-changing globalists?

                    LuFins DadL Offline
                    LuFins DadL Offline
                    LuFins Dad
                    wrote on last edited by
                    #24

                    @jon-nyc said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:

                    What is ambiguous about Jewish space lasers? Or money-changing globalists?

                    Nothing. Nothing new, either. That shit’s been going on in the extremes of both parties since well before Donald Trump.

                    The Brad

                    1 Reply Last reply
                    • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

                      What is ambiguous about Jewish space lasers? Or money-changing globalists?

                      HoraceH Offline
                      HoraceH Offline
                      Horace
                      wrote on last edited by
                      #25

                      @jon-nyc said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:

                      What is ambiguous about Jewish space lasers? Or money-changing globalists?

                      MTG is clearly a theorist of Jewish conspiracies, but the guy who said something about soros being a money changing globalist, is a mainstream Republican in his support for Israel. If he's an anti-semite, he's doing it wrong. Much like Israel does genocide wrong, and white supremacists do white supremacy wrong.

                      Education is extremely important.

                      1 Reply Last reply
                      • LuFins DadL LuFins Dad

                        @jon-nyc said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:

                        Results from the actual poll. Interesting numbers that LD omitted are the Jews who normally vote R but will vote D this time.

                        IMG_0465.jpeg

                        Even if there are 4 of Jewish voters that were dropping support for Trump, it’s still a new loss of well over 10% of the Jewish support for the Dem leadership. That is extremely significant, and is unsustainable for their traditional voting block. Everything I read says the Dems need to maintain X% of Jewish voters, Y% of Blacks, Z% of Hispanics. Losing any one of those spells defeat. Yet all of the crosstabs suggest they are losing ALL of those demos. So where are the replacement votes coming from? I strongly suspect nowhere, and we’re seeing an LV error by the various polling groups.

                        jon-nycJ Online
                        jon-nycJ Online
                        jon-nyc
                        wrote on last edited by jon-nyc
                        #26

                        @LuFins-Dad said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:

                        So where are the replacement votes coming from? I strongly suspect nowhere, and we’re seeing an LV error by the various polling groups.

                        College educated whites broke for Hilary by +6 and Biden by +9. Harris has them by +18.

                        Probably more women generally due to Dobbs.

                        Only non-witches get due process.

                        • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
                        1 Reply Last reply
                        • HoraceH Offline
                          HoraceH Offline
                          Horace
                          wrote on last edited by
                          #27

                          If Harris wins a close one, it will be reasonable to attribute her win to SCOTUS' overturn of Roe v Wade.

                          Education is extremely important.

                          taiwan_girlT 1 Reply Last reply
                          • HoraceH Offline
                            HoraceH Offline
                            Horace
                            wrote on last edited by
                            #28

                            I just heard a guest on Ezra Klein's podcast, say about Netanyahu that he "always believes that he can wheedle a better deal out of whomever he's negotiating with". Blatant anti-semitism.

                            Education is extremely important.

                            1 Reply Last reply
                            • HoraceH Horace

                              If Harris wins a close one, it will be reasonable to attribute her win to SCOTUS' overturn of Roe v Wade.

                              taiwan_girlT Offline
                              taiwan_girlT Offline
                              taiwan_girl
                              wrote on last edited by
                              #29

                              @Horace said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:

                              If Harris wins a close one, it will be reasonable to attribute her win to SCOTUS' overturn of Roe v Wade.

                              I think that is true. That is why Republicans are "talking back" a bit their stand on abortion.

                              1 Reply Last reply
                              • George KG Offline
                                George KG Offline
                                George K
                                wrote on last edited by
                                #30

                                GZU7ATuWEAAGMc3.jpeg

                                "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

                                The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

                                1 Reply Last reply
                                • LuFins DadL Offline
                                  LuFins DadL Offline
                                  LuFins Dad
                                  wrote on last edited by
                                  #31

                                  The Brad

                                  1 Reply Last reply
                                  • JollyJ Offline
                                    JollyJ Offline
                                    Jolly
                                    wrote on last edited by
                                    #32

                                    Trump has historically underpolled. If true this time, it could be a bad night for Harris in the battleground states.

                                    “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

                                    Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

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