How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election
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@jon-nyc said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:
Results from the actual poll. Interesting numbers that LD omitted are the Jews who normally vote R but will vote D this time.
Even if there are 4 of Jewish voters that were dropping support for Trump, it’s still a new loss of well over 10% of the Jewish support for the Dem leadership. That is extremely significant, and is unsustainable for their traditional voting block. Everything I read says the Dems need to maintain X% of Jewish voters, Y% of Blacks, Z% of Hispanics. Losing any one of those spells defeat. Yet all of the crosstabs suggest they are losing ALL of those demos. So where are the replacement votes coming from? I strongly suspect nowhere, and we’re seeing an LV error by the various polling groups.
@LuFins-Dad said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:
. So where are the replacement votes coming from? I strongly suspect nowhere...
...for now.
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Maybe there’s a little wishcasting going on when two separate people on this thread assume the ‘was Trump now D’ voters are faking it while the ‘was D now Trump’ voters are legit.
@jon-nyc said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:
Maybe there’s a little wishcasting going on when two separate people on this thread assume the ‘was Trump now D’ voters are faking it while the ‘was D now Trump’ voters are legit.
Not at all, but the poll is about whether antisemitism is specifically causing you to change your vote and how. While there has been the normal far-right antisemitism, that’s been nothing new. If anything, I could see people holding the view that the right is too Pro-Israel and not critical enough, but there’s not been any pro-Hamas individuals in leadership.There’s not been any support and only strong condemnation for the protests on campus. It’s been Republican committees that have pulled liberal university deans and heads in to testify over antisemitism on campus. In the meantime, there are a lot of democrats that have been caught supporting the protests, Hamas, and more than a few Hamas adjacent members of the party. The simple fact is that having that large of a group leave the Republicans over antisemitism seems unlikely. I could see them leaving over January 6, over Trump’s handling of COVID, over the new isolationist elements of the party, over Trump’s personality, or over Trump being the anti-Reagan. But I don’t see them leaving over antisemitism, and that’s what the poll is supposed to be about.
Beyond that, the fact that remains is the net loss to Dems is significant.
The Brad
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Maybe there’s a little wishcasting going on when two separate people on this thread assume the ‘was Trump now D’ voters are faking it while the ‘was D now Trump’ voters are legit.
@jon-nyc said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:
Maybe there’s a little wishcasting going on when two separate people on this thread assume the ‘was Trump now D’ voters are faking it while the ‘was D now Trump’ voters are legit.
There is certainly some wishcasting when one poster notes that no Jew has ever told him that they were changing their vote to Trump, therefore that poster has never met a Jew who will be changing their vote to Trump.
For my own curiosity of the real voting patterns of those who say "they usually vote R but will be voting D", I wouldn't wonder if it had been phrased "I voted for Trump but now will be voting D". But that's not how it was phrased.
Education is extremely important.
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@jon-nyc said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:
Maybe there’s a little wishcasting going on when two separate people on this thread assume the ‘was Trump now D’ voters are faking it while the ‘was D now Trump’ voters are legit.
Not at all, but the poll is about whether antisemitism is specifically causing you to change your vote and how. While there has been the normal far-right antisemitism, that’s been nothing new. If anything, I could see people holding the view that the right is too Pro-Israel and not critical enough, but there’s not been any pro-Hamas individuals in leadership.There’s not been any support and only strong condemnation for the protests on campus. It’s been Republican committees that have pulled liberal university deans and heads in to testify over antisemitism on campus. In the meantime, there are a lot of democrats that have been caught supporting the protests, Hamas, and more than a few Hamas adjacent members of the party. The simple fact is that having that large of a group leave the Republicans over antisemitism seems unlikely. I could see them leaving over January 6, over Trump’s handling of COVID, over the new isolationist elements of the party, over Trump’s personality, or over Trump being the anti-Reagan. But I don’t see them leaving over antisemitism, and that’s what the poll is supposed to be about.
Beyond that, the fact that remains is the net loss to Dems is significant.
@LuFins-Dad said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:
@jon-nyc said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:
Maybe there’s a little wishcasting going on when two separate people on this thread assume the ‘was Trump now D’ voters are faking it while the ‘was D now Trump’ voters are legit.
Not at all, but the poll is about whether antisemitism is specifically causing you to change your vote and how. While there has been the normal far-right antisemitism, that’s been nothing new. If anything, I could see people holding the view that the right is too Pro-Israel and not critical enough, but there’s not been any pro-Hamas individuals in leadership.There’s not been any support and only strong condemnation for the protests on campus. It’s been Republican committees that have pulled liberal university deans and heads in to testify over antisemitism on campus. In the meantime, there are a lot of democrats that have been caught supporting the protests, Hamas, and more than a few Hamas adjacent members of the party. The simple fact is that having that large of a group leave the Republicans over antisemitism seems unlikely. I could see them leaving over January 6, over Trump’s handling of COVID, over the new isolationist elements of the party, over Trump’s personality, or over Trump being the anti-Reagan. But I don’t see them leaving over antisemitism, and that’s what the poll is supposed to be about.
Yeah but that one guy who called Soros a "money changer", he is indicative of the deep veins of antisemitism that run through the GOP. Now stop wishcasting, LD.
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@jon-nyc said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:
Maybe there’s a little wishcasting going on when two separate people on this thread assume the ‘was Trump now D’ voters are faking it while the ‘was D now Trump’ voters are legit.
There is certainly some wishcasting when one poster notes that no Jew has ever told him that they were changing their vote to Trump, therefore that poster has never met a Jew who will be changing their vote to Trump.
For my own curiosity of the real voting patterns of those who say "they usually vote R but will be voting D", I wouldn't wonder if it had been phrased "I voted for Trump but now will be voting D". But that's not how it was phrased.
@Horace said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:
@jon-nyc said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:
Maybe there’s a little wishcasting going on when two separate people on this thread assume the ‘was Trump now D’ voters are faking it while the ‘was D now Trump’ voters are legit.
There is certainly some wishcasting when one poster notes that no Jew has ever told him that they were changing their vote to Trump, therefore that poster has never met a Jew who will be changing their vote to Trump.
For my own curiosity of the real voting patterns of those who say "they usually vote R but will be voting D", I wouldn't wonder if it had been phrased "I voted for Trump but now will be voting D". But that's not how it was phrased.
And the idea that it’s over antisemitism stretches the credibility.
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@Horace said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:
@jon-nyc said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:
Maybe there’s a little wishcasting going on when two separate people on this thread assume the ‘was Trump now D’ voters are faking it while the ‘was D now Trump’ voters are legit.
There is certainly some wishcasting when one poster notes that no Jew has ever told him that they were changing their vote to Trump, therefore that poster has never met a Jew who will be changing their vote to Trump.
For my own curiosity of the real voting patterns of those who say "they usually vote R but will be voting D", I wouldn't wonder if it had been phrased "I voted for Trump but now will be voting D". But that's not how it was phrased.
And the idea that it’s over antisemitism stretches the credibility.
@LuFins-Dad said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:
@Horace said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:
@jon-nyc said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:
Maybe there’s a little wishcasting going on when two separate people on this thread assume the ‘was Trump now D’ voters are faking it while the ‘was D now Trump’ voters are legit.
There is certainly some wishcasting when one poster notes that no Jew has ever told him that they were changing their vote to Trump, therefore that poster has never met a Jew who will be changing their vote to Trump.
For my own curiosity of the real voting patterns of those who say "they usually vote R but will be voting D", I wouldn't wonder if it had been phrased "I voted for Trump but now will be voting D". But that's not how it was phrased.
And the idea that it’s over antisemitism stretches the credibility.
Not if the blatant antisemitism of one's preferred party is merely the cost of doing business to keep Trump from the white house, while ambiguous anecdotes of slips of the tongue by a Republican that sort of seem like something an anti-semite would say, are the real Truth of where the hatred lurks.
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What is ambiguous about Jewish space lasers? Or money-changing globalists?
"You never know what worse luck your bad luck has saved you from."
-Cormac McCarthy -
@jon-nyc said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:
What is ambiguous about Jewish space lasers? Or money-changing globalists?
Nothing. Nothing new, either. That shit’s been going on in the extremes of both parties since well before Donald Trump.
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@jon-nyc said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:
What is ambiguous about Jewish space lasers? Or money-changing globalists?
MTG is clearly a theorist of Jewish conspiracies, but the guy who said something about soros being a money changing globalist, is a mainstream Republican in his support for Israel. If he's an anti-semite, he's doing it wrong. Much like Israel does genocide wrong, and white supremacists do white supremacy wrong.
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@jon-nyc said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:
Results from the actual poll. Interesting numbers that LD omitted are the Jews who normally vote R but will vote D this time.
Even if there are 4 of Jewish voters that were dropping support for Trump, it’s still a new loss of well over 10% of the Jewish support for the Dem leadership. That is extremely significant, and is unsustainable for their traditional voting block. Everything I read says the Dems need to maintain X% of Jewish voters, Y% of Blacks, Z% of Hispanics. Losing any one of those spells defeat. Yet all of the crosstabs suggest they are losing ALL of those demos. So where are the replacement votes coming from? I strongly suspect nowhere, and we’re seeing an LV error by the various polling groups.
@LuFins-Dad said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:
So where are the replacement votes coming from? I strongly suspect nowhere, and we’re seeing an LV error by the various polling groups.
College educated whites broke for Hilary by +6 and Biden by +9. Harris has them by +18.
Probably more women generally due to Dobbs.
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If Harris wins a close one, it will be reasonable to attribute her win to SCOTUS' overturn of Roe v Wade.
@Horace said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:
If Harris wins a close one, it will be reasonable to attribute her win to SCOTUS' overturn of Roe v Wade.
I think that is true. That is why Republicans are "talking back" a bit their stand on abortion.
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