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The New Coffee Room

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  3. How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election

How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election

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  • LuFins DadL Offline
    LuFins DadL Offline
    LuFins Dad
    wrote on last edited by
    #1

    17% of Jews surveyed that normally vote D said they would be voting Republican this year. 8% Said they would vote 3rd party, and 5 % said they weren’t going to vote at all this year.

    https://www.newsweek.com/antisemitism-drives-democratic-jewish-voters-republican-poll-1964814

    The Brad

    1 Reply Last reply
    • jon-nycJ Offline
      jon-nycJ Offline
      jon-nyc
      wrote on last edited by
      #2

      Haven’t met any but I’ve heard they exist.

      Only non-witches get due process.

      • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
      HoraceH 1 Reply Last reply
      • George KG Offline
        George KG Offline
        George K
        wrote on last edited by
        #3

        Am I reading that the Democrats have lost 30% of the Jewish vote in this survey?

        "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

        The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

        1 Reply Last reply
        • jon-nycJ Offline
          jon-nycJ Offline
          jon-nyc
          wrote on last edited by
          #4

          I think the denominator is the 70+% of Jews that vote democratic. That would mean 21% of the Jewish vote lost. Insofar as it’s accurate anyway.

          Only non-witches get due process.

          • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
          George KG 1 Reply Last reply
          • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

            I think the denominator is the 70+% of Jews that vote democratic. That would mean 21% of the Jewish vote lost. Insofar as it’s accurate anyway.

            George KG Offline
            George KG Offline
            George K
            wrote on last edited by
            #5

            @jon-nyc said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:

            I think the denominator is the 70+% of Jews that vote democratic.

            I would have thought the Jews that vote Democrat would have been a higher number.

            "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

            The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

            1 Reply Last reply
            • jon-nycJ Offline
              jon-nycJ Offline
              jon-nyc
              wrote on last edited by
              #6

              Maybe it was 74 last time. I think 70 is the low water mark in modern times

              Only non-witches get due process.

              • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
              1 Reply Last reply
              • jon-nycJ Offline
                jon-nycJ Offline
                jon-nyc
                wrote on last edited by
                #7

                Results from the actual poll. Interesting numbers that LD omitted are the Jews who normally vote R but will vote D this time.

                IMG_0465.jpeg

                Only non-witches get due process.

                • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
                HoraceH LuFins DadL 2 Replies Last reply
                • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

                  Haven’t met any but I’ve heard they exist.

                  HoraceH Online
                  HoraceH Online
                  Horace
                  wrote on last edited by
                  #8

                  @jon-nyc said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:

                  Haven’t met any

                  You mean, no Jewish person has told you they're switching their vote.

                  Education is extremely important.

                  1 Reply Last reply
                  • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

                    Results from the actual poll. Interesting numbers that LD omitted are the Jews who normally vote R but will vote D this time.

                    IMG_0465.jpeg

                    HoraceH Online
                    HoraceH Online
                    Horace
                    wrote on last edited by
                    #9

                    @jon-nyc said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:

                    Results from the actual poll. Interesting numbers that LD omitted are the Jews who normally vote R but will vote D this time.

                    IMG_0465.jpeg

                    Only the top two categories imply a change. Regarding the second category, I wonder if the implication that they voted Trump in 2016 or 2020 is actually true.

                    Education is extremely important.

                    LuFins DadL 1 Reply Last reply
                    • kluursK Offline
                      kluursK Offline
                      kluurs
                      wrote on last edited by
                      #10

                      Rumor from Tik Tok (where facts flee for a healthy vacation), is that Trump got $100 million from Adelman last time to recognize Jerusalem as Israel's capital and will get a similar amount this time to recognize the annexation of the West Bank. Stay tuned. Seriously, there is an amazing amount of anti-Israel videos on TT.

                      1 Reply Last reply
                      • JollyJ Offline
                        JollyJ Offline
                        Jolly
                        wrote on last edited by
                        #11

                        AFAIC, Israel can have the West Bank.

                        “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

                        Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

                        1 Reply Last reply
                        • 89th8 Offline
                          89th8 Offline
                          89th
                          wrote on last edited by
                          #12

                          You'd think rich, religious, conservative, and pro-Israel people would vote Republican more often.

                          1 Reply Last reply
                          • HoraceH Horace

                            @jon-nyc said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:

                            Results from the actual poll. Interesting numbers that LD omitted are the Jews who normally vote R but will vote D this time.

                            IMG_0465.jpeg

                            Only the top two categories imply a change. Regarding the second category, I wonder if the implication that they voted Trump in 2016 or 2020 is actually true.

                            LuFins DadL Offline
                            LuFins DadL Offline
                            LuFins Dad
                            wrote on last edited by
                            #13

                            @Horace said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:

                            @jon-nyc said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:

                            Results from the actual poll. Interesting numbers that LD omitted are the Jews who normally vote R but will vote D this time.

                            IMG_0465.jpeg

                            Only the top two categories imply a change. Regarding the second category, I wonder if the implication that they voted Trump in 2016 or 2020 is actually true.

                            I didn’t read through the article enough to see that there was a group of “Republican” voters that were going democrat this time. In the context of the point of the poll and the article, that seems unlikely. Far more likely that there were a few never Trumpers in there making their voices heard…

                            The Brad

                            1 Reply Last reply
                            • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

                              Results from the actual poll. Interesting numbers that LD omitted are the Jews who normally vote R but will vote D this time.

                              IMG_0465.jpeg

                              LuFins DadL Offline
                              LuFins DadL Offline
                              LuFins Dad
                              wrote on last edited by
                              #14

                              @jon-nyc said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:

                              Results from the actual poll. Interesting numbers that LD omitted are the Jews who normally vote R but will vote D this time.

                              IMG_0465.jpeg

                              Even if there are 4 of Jewish voters that were dropping support for Trump, it’s still a new loss of well over 10% of the Jewish support for the Dem leadership. That is extremely significant, and is unsustainable for their traditional voting block. Everything I read says the Dems need to maintain X% of Jewish voters, Y% of Blacks, Z% of Hispanics. Losing any one of those spells defeat. Yet all of the crosstabs suggest they are losing ALL of those demos. So where are the replacement votes coming from? I strongly suspect nowhere, and we’re seeing an LV error by the various polling groups.

                              The Brad

                              George KG jon-nycJ 2 Replies Last reply
                              • jon-nycJ Offline
                                jon-nycJ Offline
                                jon-nyc
                                wrote on last edited by
                                #15

                                Maybe there’s a little wishcasting going on when two separate people on this thread assume the ‘was Trump now D’ voters are faking it while the ‘was D now Trump’ voters are legit.

                                Only non-witches get due process.

                                • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
                                LuFins DadL HoraceH 2 Replies Last reply
                                • LuFins DadL LuFins Dad

                                  @jon-nyc said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:

                                  Results from the actual poll. Interesting numbers that LD omitted are the Jews who normally vote R but will vote D this time.

                                  IMG_0465.jpeg

                                  Even if there are 4 of Jewish voters that were dropping support for Trump, it’s still a new loss of well over 10% of the Jewish support for the Dem leadership. That is extremely significant, and is unsustainable for their traditional voting block. Everything I read says the Dems need to maintain X% of Jewish voters, Y% of Blacks, Z% of Hispanics. Losing any one of those spells defeat. Yet all of the crosstabs suggest they are losing ALL of those demos. So where are the replacement votes coming from? I strongly suspect nowhere, and we’re seeing an LV error by the various polling groups.

                                  George KG Offline
                                  George KG Offline
                                  George K
                                  wrote on last edited by
                                  #16

                                  @LuFins-Dad said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:

                                  . So where are the replacement votes coming from? I strongly suspect nowhere...

                                  ...for now.

                                  "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

                                  The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

                                  1 Reply Last reply
                                  • JollyJ Offline
                                    JollyJ Offline
                                    Jolly
                                    wrote on last edited by
                                    #17

                                    They're printing them as we speak.

                                    “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

                                    Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

                                    1 Reply Last reply
                                    • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

                                      Maybe there’s a little wishcasting going on when two separate people on this thread assume the ‘was Trump now D’ voters are faking it while the ‘was D now Trump’ voters are legit.

                                      LuFins DadL Offline
                                      LuFins DadL Offline
                                      LuFins Dad
                                      wrote on last edited by
                                      #18

                                      @jon-nyc said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:

                                      Maybe there’s a little wishcasting going on when two separate people on this thread assume the ‘was Trump now D’ voters are faking it while the ‘was D now Trump’ voters are legit.

                                      Not at all, but the poll is about whether antisemitism is specifically causing you to change your vote and how. While there has been the normal far-right antisemitism, that’s been nothing new. If anything, I could see people holding the view that the right is too Pro-Israel and not critical enough, but there’s not been any pro-Hamas individuals in leadership.There’s not been any support and only strong condemnation for the protests on campus. It’s been Republican committees that have pulled liberal university deans and heads in to testify over antisemitism on campus. In the meantime, there are a lot of democrats that have been caught supporting the protests, Hamas, and more than a few Hamas adjacent members of the party. The simple fact is that having that large of a group leave the Republicans over antisemitism seems unlikely. I could see them leaving over January 6, over Trump’s handling of COVID, over the new isolationist elements of the party, over Trump’s personality, or over Trump being the anti-Reagan. But I don’t see them leaving over antisemitism, and that’s what the poll is supposed to be about.

                                      Beyond that, the fact that remains is the net loss to Dems is significant.

                                      The Brad

                                      HoraceH 1 Reply Last reply
                                      • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

                                        Maybe there’s a little wishcasting going on when two separate people on this thread assume the ‘was Trump now D’ voters are faking it while the ‘was D now Trump’ voters are legit.

                                        HoraceH Online
                                        HoraceH Online
                                        Horace
                                        wrote on last edited by
                                        #19

                                        @jon-nyc said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:

                                        Maybe there’s a little wishcasting going on when two separate people on this thread assume the ‘was Trump now D’ voters are faking it while the ‘was D now Trump’ voters are legit.

                                        There is certainly some wishcasting when one poster notes that no Jew has ever told him that they were changing their vote to Trump, therefore that poster has never met a Jew who will be changing their vote to Trump.

                                        For my own curiosity of the real voting patterns of those who say "they usually vote R but will be voting D", I wouldn't wonder if it had been phrased "I voted for Trump but now will be voting D". But that's not how it was phrased.

                                        Education is extremely important.

                                        LuFins DadL 1 Reply Last reply
                                        • LuFins DadL LuFins Dad

                                          @jon-nyc said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:

                                          Maybe there’s a little wishcasting going on when two separate people on this thread assume the ‘was Trump now D’ voters are faking it while the ‘was D now Trump’ voters are legit.

                                          Not at all, but the poll is about whether antisemitism is specifically causing you to change your vote and how. While there has been the normal far-right antisemitism, that’s been nothing new. If anything, I could see people holding the view that the right is too Pro-Israel and not critical enough, but there’s not been any pro-Hamas individuals in leadership.There’s not been any support and only strong condemnation for the protests on campus. It’s been Republican committees that have pulled liberal university deans and heads in to testify over antisemitism on campus. In the meantime, there are a lot of democrats that have been caught supporting the protests, Hamas, and more than a few Hamas adjacent members of the party. The simple fact is that having that large of a group leave the Republicans over antisemitism seems unlikely. I could see them leaving over January 6, over Trump’s handling of COVID, over the new isolationist elements of the party, over Trump’s personality, or over Trump being the anti-Reagan. But I don’t see them leaving over antisemitism, and that’s what the poll is supposed to be about.

                                          Beyond that, the fact that remains is the net loss to Dems is significant.

                                          HoraceH Online
                                          HoraceH Online
                                          Horace
                                          wrote on last edited by
                                          #20

                                          @LuFins-Dad said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:

                                          @jon-nyc said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:

                                          Maybe there’s a little wishcasting going on when two separate people on this thread assume the ‘was Trump now D’ voters are faking it while the ‘was D now Trump’ voters are legit.

                                          Not at all, but the poll is about whether antisemitism is specifically causing you to change your vote and how. While there has been the normal far-right antisemitism, that’s been nothing new. If anything, I could see people holding the view that the right is too Pro-Israel and not critical enough, but there’s not been any pro-Hamas individuals in leadership.There’s not been any support and only strong condemnation for the protests on campus. It’s been Republican committees that have pulled liberal university deans and heads in to testify over antisemitism on campus. In the meantime, there are a lot of democrats that have been caught supporting the protests, Hamas, and more than a few Hamas adjacent members of the party. The simple fact is that having that large of a group leave the Republicans over antisemitism seems unlikely. I could see them leaving over January 6, over Trump’s handling of COVID, over the new isolationist elements of the party, over Trump’s personality, or over Trump being the anti-Reagan. But I don’t see them leaving over antisemitism, and that’s what the poll is supposed to be about.

                                          Yeah but that one guy who called Soros a "money changer", he is indicative of the deep veins of antisemitism that run through the GOP. Now stop wishcasting, LD.

                                          Education is extremely important.

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