How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election
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I think the denominator is the 70+% of Jews that vote democratic. That would mean 21% of the Jewish vote lost. Insofar as it’s accurate anyway.
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Results from the actual poll. Interesting numbers that LD omitted are the Jews who normally vote R but will vote D this time.
"You never know what worse luck your bad luck has saved you from."
-Cormac McCarthy -
Results from the actual poll. Interesting numbers that LD omitted are the Jews who normally vote R but will vote D this time.
@jon-nyc said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:
Results from the actual poll. Interesting numbers that LD omitted are the Jews who normally vote R but will vote D this time.
Only the top two categories imply a change. Regarding the second category, I wonder if the implication that they voted Trump in 2016 or 2020 is actually true.
Education is extremely important.
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Rumor from Tik Tok (where facts flee for a healthy vacation), is that Trump got $100 million from Adelman last time to recognize Jerusalem as Israel's capital and will get a similar amount this time to recognize the annexation of the West Bank. Stay tuned. Seriously, there is an amazing amount of anti-Israel videos on TT.
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@jon-nyc said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:
Results from the actual poll. Interesting numbers that LD omitted are the Jews who normally vote R but will vote D this time.
Only the top two categories imply a change. Regarding the second category, I wonder if the implication that they voted Trump in 2016 or 2020 is actually true.
@Horace said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:
@jon-nyc said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:
Results from the actual poll. Interesting numbers that LD omitted are the Jews who normally vote R but will vote D this time.
Only the top two categories imply a change. Regarding the second category, I wonder if the implication that they voted Trump in 2016 or 2020 is actually true.
I didn’t read through the article enough to see that there was a group of “Republican” voters that were going democrat this time. In the context of the point of the poll and the article, that seems unlikely. Far more likely that there were a few never Trumpers in there making their voices heard…
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Results from the actual poll. Interesting numbers that LD omitted are the Jews who normally vote R but will vote D this time.
@jon-nyc said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:
Results from the actual poll. Interesting numbers that LD omitted are the Jews who normally vote R but will vote D this time.
Even if there are 4 of Jewish voters that were dropping support for Trump, it’s still a new loss of well over 10% of the Jewish support for the Dem leadership. That is extremely significant, and is unsustainable for their traditional voting block. Everything I read says the Dems need to maintain X% of Jewish voters, Y% of Blacks, Z% of Hispanics. Losing any one of those spells defeat. Yet all of the crosstabs suggest they are losing ALL of those demos. So where are the replacement votes coming from? I strongly suspect nowhere, and we’re seeing an LV error by the various polling groups.
The Brad
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Maybe there’s a little wishcasting going on when two separate people on this thread assume the ‘was Trump now D’ voters are faking it while the ‘was D now Trump’ voters are legit.
"You never know what worse luck your bad luck has saved you from."
-Cormac McCarthy -
@jon-nyc said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:
Results from the actual poll. Interesting numbers that LD omitted are the Jews who normally vote R but will vote D this time.
Even if there are 4 of Jewish voters that were dropping support for Trump, it’s still a new loss of well over 10% of the Jewish support for the Dem leadership. That is extremely significant, and is unsustainable for their traditional voting block. Everything I read says the Dems need to maintain X% of Jewish voters, Y% of Blacks, Z% of Hispanics. Losing any one of those spells defeat. Yet all of the crosstabs suggest they are losing ALL of those demos. So where are the replacement votes coming from? I strongly suspect nowhere, and we’re seeing an LV error by the various polling groups.
@LuFins-Dad said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:
. So where are the replacement votes coming from? I strongly suspect nowhere...
...for now.
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Maybe there’s a little wishcasting going on when two separate people on this thread assume the ‘was Trump now D’ voters are faking it while the ‘was D now Trump’ voters are legit.
@jon-nyc said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:
Maybe there’s a little wishcasting going on when two separate people on this thread assume the ‘was Trump now D’ voters are faking it while the ‘was D now Trump’ voters are legit.
Not at all, but the poll is about whether antisemitism is specifically causing you to change your vote and how. While there has been the normal far-right antisemitism, that’s been nothing new. If anything, I could see people holding the view that the right is too Pro-Israel and not critical enough, but there’s not been any pro-Hamas individuals in leadership.There’s not been any support and only strong condemnation for the protests on campus. It’s been Republican committees that have pulled liberal university deans and heads in to testify over antisemitism on campus. In the meantime, there are a lot of democrats that have been caught supporting the protests, Hamas, and more than a few Hamas adjacent members of the party. The simple fact is that having that large of a group leave the Republicans over antisemitism seems unlikely. I could see them leaving over January 6, over Trump’s handling of COVID, over the new isolationist elements of the party, over Trump’s personality, or over Trump being the anti-Reagan. But I don’t see them leaving over antisemitism, and that’s what the poll is supposed to be about.
Beyond that, the fact that remains is the net loss to Dems is significant.
The Brad
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Maybe there’s a little wishcasting going on when two separate people on this thread assume the ‘was Trump now D’ voters are faking it while the ‘was D now Trump’ voters are legit.
@jon-nyc said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:
Maybe there’s a little wishcasting going on when two separate people on this thread assume the ‘was Trump now D’ voters are faking it while the ‘was D now Trump’ voters are legit.
There is certainly some wishcasting when one poster notes that no Jew has ever told him that they were changing their vote to Trump, therefore that poster has never met a Jew who will be changing their vote to Trump.
For my own curiosity of the real voting patterns of those who say "they usually vote R but will be voting D", I wouldn't wonder if it had been phrased "I voted for Trump but now will be voting D". But that's not how it was phrased.
Education is extremely important.
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@jon-nyc said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:
Maybe there’s a little wishcasting going on when two separate people on this thread assume the ‘was Trump now D’ voters are faking it while the ‘was D now Trump’ voters are legit.
Not at all, but the poll is about whether antisemitism is specifically causing you to change your vote and how. While there has been the normal far-right antisemitism, that’s been nothing new. If anything, I could see people holding the view that the right is too Pro-Israel and not critical enough, but there’s not been any pro-Hamas individuals in leadership.There’s not been any support and only strong condemnation for the protests on campus. It’s been Republican committees that have pulled liberal university deans and heads in to testify over antisemitism on campus. In the meantime, there are a lot of democrats that have been caught supporting the protests, Hamas, and more than a few Hamas adjacent members of the party. The simple fact is that having that large of a group leave the Republicans over antisemitism seems unlikely. I could see them leaving over January 6, over Trump’s handling of COVID, over the new isolationist elements of the party, over Trump’s personality, or over Trump being the anti-Reagan. But I don’t see them leaving over antisemitism, and that’s what the poll is supposed to be about.
Beyond that, the fact that remains is the net loss to Dems is significant.
@LuFins-Dad said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:
@jon-nyc said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:
Maybe there’s a little wishcasting going on when two separate people on this thread assume the ‘was Trump now D’ voters are faking it while the ‘was D now Trump’ voters are legit.
Not at all, but the poll is about whether antisemitism is specifically causing you to change your vote and how. While there has been the normal far-right antisemitism, that’s been nothing new. If anything, I could see people holding the view that the right is too Pro-Israel and not critical enough, but there’s not been any pro-Hamas individuals in leadership.There’s not been any support and only strong condemnation for the protests on campus. It’s been Republican committees that have pulled liberal university deans and heads in to testify over antisemitism on campus. In the meantime, there are a lot of democrats that have been caught supporting the protests, Hamas, and more than a few Hamas adjacent members of the party. The simple fact is that having that large of a group leave the Republicans over antisemitism seems unlikely. I could see them leaving over January 6, over Trump’s handling of COVID, over the new isolationist elements of the party, over Trump’s personality, or over Trump being the anti-Reagan. But I don’t see them leaving over antisemitism, and that’s what the poll is supposed to be about.
Yeah but that one guy who called Soros a "money changer", he is indicative of the deep veins of antisemitism that run through the GOP. Now stop wishcasting, LD.
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@jon-nyc said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:
Maybe there’s a little wishcasting going on when two separate people on this thread assume the ‘was Trump now D’ voters are faking it while the ‘was D now Trump’ voters are legit.
There is certainly some wishcasting when one poster notes that no Jew has ever told him that they were changing their vote to Trump, therefore that poster has never met a Jew who will be changing their vote to Trump.
For my own curiosity of the real voting patterns of those who say "they usually vote R but will be voting D", I wouldn't wonder if it had been phrased "I voted for Trump but now will be voting D". But that's not how it was phrased.
@Horace said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:
@jon-nyc said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:
Maybe there’s a little wishcasting going on when two separate people on this thread assume the ‘was Trump now D’ voters are faking it while the ‘was D now Trump’ voters are legit.
There is certainly some wishcasting when one poster notes that no Jew has ever told him that they were changing their vote to Trump, therefore that poster has never met a Jew who will be changing their vote to Trump.
For my own curiosity of the real voting patterns of those who say "they usually vote R but will be voting D", I wouldn't wonder if it had been phrased "I voted for Trump but now will be voting D". But that's not how it was phrased.
And the idea that it’s over antisemitism stretches the credibility.
