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  3. How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election

How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election

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  • jon-nycJ Offline
    jon-nycJ Offline
    jon-nyc
    wrote on last edited by
    #4

    I think the denominator is the 70+% of Jews that vote democratic. That would mean 21% of the Jewish vote lost. Insofar as it’s accurate anyway.

    Only non-witches get due process.

    • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
    George KG 1 Reply Last reply
    • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

      I think the denominator is the 70+% of Jews that vote democratic. That would mean 21% of the Jewish vote lost. Insofar as it’s accurate anyway.

      George KG Offline
      George KG Offline
      George K
      wrote on last edited by
      #5

      @jon-nyc said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:

      I think the denominator is the 70+% of Jews that vote democratic.

      I would have thought the Jews that vote Democrat would have been a higher number.

      "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

      The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

      1 Reply Last reply
      • jon-nycJ Offline
        jon-nycJ Offline
        jon-nyc
        wrote on last edited by
        #6

        Maybe it was 74 last time. I think 70 is the low water mark in modern times

        Only non-witches get due process.

        • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
        1 Reply Last reply
        • jon-nycJ Offline
          jon-nycJ Offline
          jon-nyc
          wrote on last edited by
          #7

          Results from the actual poll. Interesting numbers that LD omitted are the Jews who normally vote R but will vote D this time.

          IMG_0465.jpeg

          Only non-witches get due process.

          • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
          HoraceH LuFins DadL 2 Replies Last reply
          • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

            Haven’t met any but I’ve heard they exist.

            HoraceH Offline
            HoraceH Offline
            Horace
            wrote on last edited by
            #8

            @jon-nyc said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:

            Haven’t met any

            You mean, no Jewish person has told you they're switching their vote.

            Education is extremely important.

            1 Reply Last reply
            • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

              Results from the actual poll. Interesting numbers that LD omitted are the Jews who normally vote R but will vote D this time.

              IMG_0465.jpeg

              HoraceH Offline
              HoraceH Offline
              Horace
              wrote on last edited by
              #9

              @jon-nyc said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:

              Results from the actual poll. Interesting numbers that LD omitted are the Jews who normally vote R but will vote D this time.

              IMG_0465.jpeg

              Only the top two categories imply a change. Regarding the second category, I wonder if the implication that they voted Trump in 2016 or 2020 is actually true.

              Education is extremely important.

              LuFins DadL 1 Reply Last reply
              • kluursK Offline
                kluursK Offline
                kluurs
                wrote on last edited by
                #10

                Rumor from Tik Tok (where facts flee for a healthy vacation), is that Trump got $100 million from Adelman last time to recognize Jerusalem as Israel's capital and will get a similar amount this time to recognize the annexation of the West Bank. Stay tuned. Seriously, there is an amazing amount of anti-Israel videos on TT.

                1 Reply Last reply
                • JollyJ Offline
                  JollyJ Offline
                  Jolly
                  wrote on last edited by
                  #11

                  AFAIC, Israel can have the West Bank.

                  “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

                  Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

                  1 Reply Last reply
                  • 89th8 Offline
                    89th8 Offline
                    89th
                    wrote on last edited by
                    #12

                    You'd think rich, religious, conservative, and pro-Israel people would vote Republican more often.

                    1 Reply Last reply
                    • HoraceH Horace

                      @jon-nyc said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:

                      Results from the actual poll. Interesting numbers that LD omitted are the Jews who normally vote R but will vote D this time.

                      IMG_0465.jpeg

                      Only the top two categories imply a change. Regarding the second category, I wonder if the implication that they voted Trump in 2016 or 2020 is actually true.

                      LuFins DadL Offline
                      LuFins DadL Offline
                      LuFins Dad
                      wrote on last edited by
                      #13

                      @Horace said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:

                      @jon-nyc said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:

                      Results from the actual poll. Interesting numbers that LD omitted are the Jews who normally vote R but will vote D this time.

                      IMG_0465.jpeg

                      Only the top two categories imply a change. Regarding the second category, I wonder if the implication that they voted Trump in 2016 or 2020 is actually true.

                      I didn’t read through the article enough to see that there was a group of “Republican” voters that were going democrat this time. In the context of the point of the poll and the article, that seems unlikely. Far more likely that there were a few never Trumpers in there making their voices heard…

                      The Brad

                      1 Reply Last reply
                      • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

                        Results from the actual poll. Interesting numbers that LD omitted are the Jews who normally vote R but will vote D this time.

                        IMG_0465.jpeg

                        LuFins DadL Offline
                        LuFins DadL Offline
                        LuFins Dad
                        wrote on last edited by
                        #14

                        @jon-nyc said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:

                        Results from the actual poll. Interesting numbers that LD omitted are the Jews who normally vote R but will vote D this time.

                        IMG_0465.jpeg

                        Even if there are 4 of Jewish voters that were dropping support for Trump, it’s still a new loss of well over 10% of the Jewish support for the Dem leadership. That is extremely significant, and is unsustainable for their traditional voting block. Everything I read says the Dems need to maintain X% of Jewish voters, Y% of Blacks, Z% of Hispanics. Losing any one of those spells defeat. Yet all of the crosstabs suggest they are losing ALL of those demos. So where are the replacement votes coming from? I strongly suspect nowhere, and we’re seeing an LV error by the various polling groups.

                        The Brad

                        George KG jon-nycJ 2 Replies Last reply
                        • jon-nycJ Offline
                          jon-nycJ Offline
                          jon-nyc
                          wrote on last edited by
                          #15

                          Maybe there’s a little wishcasting going on when two separate people on this thread assume the ‘was Trump now D’ voters are faking it while the ‘was D now Trump’ voters are legit.

                          Only non-witches get due process.

                          • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
                          LuFins DadL HoraceH 2 Replies Last reply
                          • LuFins DadL LuFins Dad

                            @jon-nyc said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:

                            Results from the actual poll. Interesting numbers that LD omitted are the Jews who normally vote R but will vote D this time.

                            IMG_0465.jpeg

                            Even if there are 4 of Jewish voters that were dropping support for Trump, it’s still a new loss of well over 10% of the Jewish support for the Dem leadership. That is extremely significant, and is unsustainable for their traditional voting block. Everything I read says the Dems need to maintain X% of Jewish voters, Y% of Blacks, Z% of Hispanics. Losing any one of those spells defeat. Yet all of the crosstabs suggest they are losing ALL of those demos. So where are the replacement votes coming from? I strongly suspect nowhere, and we’re seeing an LV error by the various polling groups.

                            George KG Offline
                            George KG Offline
                            George K
                            wrote on last edited by
                            #16

                            @LuFins-Dad said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:

                            . So where are the replacement votes coming from? I strongly suspect nowhere...

                            ...for now.

                            "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

                            The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

                            1 Reply Last reply
                            • JollyJ Offline
                              JollyJ Offline
                              Jolly
                              wrote on last edited by
                              #17

                              They're printing them as we speak.

                              “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

                              Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

                              1 Reply Last reply
                              • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

                                Maybe there’s a little wishcasting going on when two separate people on this thread assume the ‘was Trump now D’ voters are faking it while the ‘was D now Trump’ voters are legit.

                                LuFins DadL Offline
                                LuFins DadL Offline
                                LuFins Dad
                                wrote on last edited by
                                #18

                                @jon-nyc said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:

                                Maybe there’s a little wishcasting going on when two separate people on this thread assume the ‘was Trump now D’ voters are faking it while the ‘was D now Trump’ voters are legit.

                                Not at all, but the poll is about whether antisemitism is specifically causing you to change your vote and how. While there has been the normal far-right antisemitism, that’s been nothing new. If anything, I could see people holding the view that the right is too Pro-Israel and not critical enough, but there’s not been any pro-Hamas individuals in leadership.There’s not been any support and only strong condemnation for the protests on campus. It’s been Republican committees that have pulled liberal university deans and heads in to testify over antisemitism on campus. In the meantime, there are a lot of democrats that have been caught supporting the protests, Hamas, and more than a few Hamas adjacent members of the party. The simple fact is that having that large of a group leave the Republicans over antisemitism seems unlikely. I could see them leaving over January 6, over Trump’s handling of COVID, over the new isolationist elements of the party, over Trump’s personality, or over Trump being the anti-Reagan. But I don’t see them leaving over antisemitism, and that’s what the poll is supposed to be about.

                                Beyond that, the fact that remains is the net loss to Dems is significant.

                                The Brad

                                HoraceH 1 Reply Last reply
                                • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

                                  Maybe there’s a little wishcasting going on when two separate people on this thread assume the ‘was Trump now D’ voters are faking it while the ‘was D now Trump’ voters are legit.

                                  HoraceH Offline
                                  HoraceH Offline
                                  Horace
                                  wrote on last edited by
                                  #19

                                  @jon-nyc said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:

                                  Maybe there’s a little wishcasting going on when two separate people on this thread assume the ‘was Trump now D’ voters are faking it while the ‘was D now Trump’ voters are legit.

                                  There is certainly some wishcasting when one poster notes that no Jew has ever told him that they were changing their vote to Trump, therefore that poster has never met a Jew who will be changing their vote to Trump.

                                  For my own curiosity of the real voting patterns of those who say "they usually vote R but will be voting D", I wouldn't wonder if it had been phrased "I voted for Trump but now will be voting D". But that's not how it was phrased.

                                  Education is extremely important.

                                  LuFins DadL 1 Reply Last reply
                                  • LuFins DadL LuFins Dad

                                    @jon-nyc said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:

                                    Maybe there’s a little wishcasting going on when two separate people on this thread assume the ‘was Trump now D’ voters are faking it while the ‘was D now Trump’ voters are legit.

                                    Not at all, but the poll is about whether antisemitism is specifically causing you to change your vote and how. While there has been the normal far-right antisemitism, that’s been nothing new. If anything, I could see people holding the view that the right is too Pro-Israel and not critical enough, but there’s not been any pro-Hamas individuals in leadership.There’s not been any support and only strong condemnation for the protests on campus. It’s been Republican committees that have pulled liberal university deans and heads in to testify over antisemitism on campus. In the meantime, there are a lot of democrats that have been caught supporting the protests, Hamas, and more than a few Hamas adjacent members of the party. The simple fact is that having that large of a group leave the Republicans over antisemitism seems unlikely. I could see them leaving over January 6, over Trump’s handling of COVID, over the new isolationist elements of the party, over Trump’s personality, or over Trump being the anti-Reagan. But I don’t see them leaving over antisemitism, and that’s what the poll is supposed to be about.

                                    Beyond that, the fact that remains is the net loss to Dems is significant.

                                    HoraceH Offline
                                    HoraceH Offline
                                    Horace
                                    wrote on last edited by
                                    #20

                                    @LuFins-Dad said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:

                                    @jon-nyc said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:

                                    Maybe there’s a little wishcasting going on when two separate people on this thread assume the ‘was Trump now D’ voters are faking it while the ‘was D now Trump’ voters are legit.

                                    Not at all, but the poll is about whether antisemitism is specifically causing you to change your vote and how. While there has been the normal far-right antisemitism, that’s been nothing new. If anything, I could see people holding the view that the right is too Pro-Israel and not critical enough, but there’s not been any pro-Hamas individuals in leadership.There’s not been any support and only strong condemnation for the protests on campus. It’s been Republican committees that have pulled liberal university deans and heads in to testify over antisemitism on campus. In the meantime, there are a lot of democrats that have been caught supporting the protests, Hamas, and more than a few Hamas adjacent members of the party. The simple fact is that having that large of a group leave the Republicans over antisemitism seems unlikely. I could see them leaving over January 6, over Trump’s handling of COVID, over the new isolationist elements of the party, over Trump’s personality, or over Trump being the anti-Reagan. But I don’t see them leaving over antisemitism, and that’s what the poll is supposed to be about.

                                    Yeah but that one guy who called Soros a "money changer", he is indicative of the deep veins of antisemitism that run through the GOP. Now stop wishcasting, LD.

                                    Education is extremely important.

                                    1 Reply Last reply
                                    • HoraceH Horace

                                      @jon-nyc said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:

                                      Maybe there’s a little wishcasting going on when two separate people on this thread assume the ‘was Trump now D’ voters are faking it while the ‘was D now Trump’ voters are legit.

                                      There is certainly some wishcasting when one poster notes that no Jew has ever told him that they were changing their vote to Trump, therefore that poster has never met a Jew who will be changing their vote to Trump.

                                      For my own curiosity of the real voting patterns of those who say "they usually vote R but will be voting D", I wouldn't wonder if it had been phrased "I voted for Trump but now will be voting D". But that's not how it was phrased.

                                      LuFins DadL Offline
                                      LuFins DadL Offline
                                      LuFins Dad
                                      wrote on last edited by
                                      #21

                                      @Horace said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:

                                      @jon-nyc said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:

                                      Maybe there’s a little wishcasting going on when two separate people on this thread assume the ‘was Trump now D’ voters are faking it while the ‘was D now Trump’ voters are legit.

                                      There is certainly some wishcasting when one poster notes that no Jew has ever told him that they were changing their vote to Trump, therefore that poster has never met a Jew who will be changing their vote to Trump.

                                      For my own curiosity of the real voting patterns of those who say "they usually vote R but will be voting D", I wouldn't wonder if it had been phrased "I voted for Trump but now will be voting D". But that's not how it was phrased.

                                      And the idea that it’s over antisemitism stretches the credibility.

                                      The Brad

                                      HoraceH 1 Reply Last reply
                                      • LuFins DadL LuFins Dad

                                        @Horace said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:

                                        @jon-nyc said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:

                                        Maybe there’s a little wishcasting going on when two separate people on this thread assume the ‘was Trump now D’ voters are faking it while the ‘was D now Trump’ voters are legit.

                                        There is certainly some wishcasting when one poster notes that no Jew has ever told him that they were changing their vote to Trump, therefore that poster has never met a Jew who will be changing their vote to Trump.

                                        For my own curiosity of the real voting patterns of those who say "they usually vote R but will be voting D", I wouldn't wonder if it had been phrased "I voted for Trump but now will be voting D". But that's not how it was phrased.

                                        And the idea that it’s over antisemitism stretches the credibility.

                                        HoraceH Offline
                                        HoraceH Offline
                                        Horace
                                        wrote on last edited by
                                        #22

                                        @LuFins-Dad said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:

                                        @Horace said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:

                                        @jon-nyc said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:

                                        Maybe there’s a little wishcasting going on when two separate people on this thread assume the ‘was Trump now D’ voters are faking it while the ‘was D now Trump’ voters are legit.

                                        There is certainly some wishcasting when one poster notes that no Jew has ever told him that they were changing their vote to Trump, therefore that poster has never met a Jew who will be changing their vote to Trump.

                                        For my own curiosity of the real voting patterns of those who say "they usually vote R but will be voting D", I wouldn't wonder if it had been phrased "I voted for Trump but now will be voting D". But that's not how it was phrased.

                                        And the idea that it’s over antisemitism stretches the credibility.

                                        Not if the blatant antisemitism of one's preferred party is merely the cost of doing business to keep Trump from the white house, while ambiguous anecdotes of slips of the tongue by a Republican that sort of seem like something an anti-semite would say, are the real Truth of where the hatred lurks.

                                        Education is extremely important.

                                        1 Reply Last reply
                                        • jon-nycJ Offline
                                          jon-nycJ Offline
                                          jon-nyc
                                          wrote on last edited by
                                          #23

                                          What is ambiguous about Jewish space lasers? Or money-changing globalists?

                                          Only non-witches get due process.

                                          • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
                                          LuFins DadL HoraceH 2 Replies Last reply
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