https://www.thetimes.com/world/asia/article/how-china-seize-taiwan-president-xi-q2lzqc53q
Interesting article from The Times
After last week’s diplomatic success in Beijing, the Chinese leader may be feeling confident, but the imposition of Beijing’s authority on that offshore outpost of democracy is still fraught with uncertainty. “His big puzzle,” argues Philip Shetler-Jones of the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) think tank, “is how to get Taiwan without bringing China into war with the US, which still has some aces up its sleeve sufficient to make a conflict very dangerous.”
The attitude of President Trump, or indeed his successor, will therefore be critical. British ministers have concluded that Trump is not prepared to start a war in defence of Taiwan. Highlighting this perception and what he argued were America’s diplomatic blunders, the former foreign secretary William Hague wrote in The Times that Xi “intends Taiwan to drop into the lap of the People’s Liberation Army [PLA] without it having to fight”.
Concerns about Trump’s position have been fed by the recent postponement of a visit to Washington of the Taiwanese defence minister and the president’s upbeat comments about striking a trade deal with Xi. To add to Taipei’s concerns, leaks from the new National Security Strategy suggest Trump is about to abandon the containment of China as the primary goal of US policy, in favour of homeland defence.
The US administration does not speak with one voice on this, there being China hawks in its ranks too. Pete Hegseth, US defence secretary, has used tougher language than his president, warning in May of devastating regional consequences if the People’s Republic tried to force the issue, “the threat China poses is real. And it could be imminent”.
Trump thinks he has an understanding on Taiwan with Xi, claiming the Chinese leader told him, “I will never do it so long as you’re president”. The danger of piquing Trump’s pride is one more reason for China to avoid a spectacular D-Day-style invasion.
Added to the risk of US intervention is the danger of a global economic shock resulting from an interruption to Taiwan’s microprocessor exports and the possibility of a humiliating setback for the PLA. All of this makes the “invasion” option unlikely, at least during the next few years.
Taiwan’s distance from the mainland, small number of suitable landing beaches and highly built-up coastline would make it a highly uncertain business. It proved too big a challenge even for America’s huge mobilised armed forces, when in 1944 they abandoned plans for Operation Causeway, an assault on the then Japanese-held island, that would have required more than 700,000 personnel and taken months to carry out.
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