@Horace said in Germany's plan for war with Russia:
Does Russia have any hope against NATO?
Depends what the war aims are. If Russia’s aims are narrow and confined to territories that were former Soviet republics it could result in a protracted war of attrition on those territories accompanied with hybrid warfare and targeted special forces/espionage operations on NATO member states beyond the battlefields of Eastern Europe.
If Russia’s war aims are to expand into Central Europe with the objective to reconstitute Stalin’s post WWII cordon sanitaire, the risks of crossing the nuclear threshold increase tenfold.
On the other hand, if NATO prevails on the battlefield but shows zero interest or intent to pursue a retreating Russian army beyond the current recognised Russian borders, I think the risk of a nuclear exchange - at least in the short term - becomes unlikely.
I get the concern over nuclear war, but assuming Russia is not suicidal, what is the real risk here?
The obvious dilemma both NATO and Russia face is the real risk that one of the nuclear capable belligerents begins thinking the unthinkable for one or more reasons and crosses the nuclear threshold at some point once hostilities commence. Bad enough if the threshold is crossed at the tactical level; much worse if it escalates to the theatre level (that is, European industry and civilian infrastructure); apocalyptic if it results in a strategic exchange.
It is a real risk and one that has been debated throughout the period of the Cold War and into the present. There is no definitive answer to thinking the unthinkable.
