Calling the States
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wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 05:18 last edited by jon-nyc 11 Apr 2020, 05:19
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wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 05:23 last edited by
What’s the matter with those odd 80% Trump in Nevada? I thought this was a battle state?
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wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 05:25 last edited by
Where are you seeing that?
If Fox, ignore it, their needles have proven a big disappointment tonight
Also, probabilities converge to 100 as results come in, so 'X swing state showing 80%' is inevitable for all swing states.
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wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 05:30 last edited by
Minesoooota.
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wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 05:32 last edited by
This isn't the first time Philadelphia has tried to steal an election.
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wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 05:32 last edited by
Shocking thing - neither Trump nor Biden have tweeted much of anything tonight.
A few retweets and Biden said something about staying in line if you're in line and the polls close.
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Shocking thing - neither Trump nor Biden have tweeted much of anything tonight.
A few retweets and Biden said something about staying in line if you're in line and the polls close.
wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 05:34 last edited by@jon-nyc said in Calling the States:
Shocking thing - neither Trump nor Biden have tweeted much of anything tonight.
A few retweets and Biden said something about staying in line if you're in line and the polls close.
More shocking about Trump. Can’t believe he was muzzled.
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wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 05:35 last edited by
I m seeing the senate stays GOP? Is that consensus?
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wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 05:35 last edited by jon-nyc 11 Apr 2020, 05:36
What the NYT is saying about its GA shift:
(the 3 states it is referring to are GA, FL, NC. All night they were predicting Trump all 3, now they've switched GA)
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Where are you seeing that?
If Fox, ignore it, their needles have proven a big disappointment tonight
Also, probabilities converge to 100 as results come in, so 'X swing state showing 80%' is inevitable for all swing states.
wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 05:43 last edited byNow it's 70%.
@jon-nyc said in Calling the States:
Where are you seeing that?
If Fox, ignore it, their needles have proven a big disappointment tonight
Also, probabilities converge to 100 as results come in, so 'X swing state showing 80%' is inevitable for all swing states.
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wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 05:46 last edited by jon-nyc 11 Apr 2020, 05:48
Oh, that's not a probability, it's a vote count.
The reporting of results happens by precinct (mini-district). So it's hard to tell what it means unless you know which districts have reported their results.
Imagine 3% reporting in Pennsylvania. Is it from a rural area in the middle of the state? Or from a black neighborhood in Philly? The two will give you lopsided opposite answers.
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wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 05:51 last edited by jon-nyc 11 Apr 2020, 05:53
Some of the more professional news organizations have detailed information about each district and how it is expected to vote, based on demographics, polling, and voting history.
Armed with that info, they can make intelligent guesses about how the whole state is trending based on how the actual results of a few districts compare to their expectations.
Thats how these states get 'called' early, and how those 'probability needles' work.
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wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 06:00 last edited by
Ok I’m going to bed.
I think the NYT Georgia thing is just a hiccup.
But still this is anyone’s race. Quite a bit closer than I was expecting and hoping for.
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wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 06:23 last edited by
Nate is saying Biden looking good in NE02.
Michigan and Wisconsin make him president
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wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 06:24 last edited by
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wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 07:11 last edited by
So, all of TNCR (except me) went to bed? Unbelievable!
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wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 07:15 last edited by
@Klaus said in Calling the States:
So, all of TNCR (except me) went to bed? Unbelievable!
I'm still up.
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wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 07:19 last edited by
I’m cheating by being on the west coast
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wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 10:51 last edited by
Here's one thing I don't understand.
Why is it important to "claim victory"? Why is it important whether a party "concedes"?
The official results will come in sooner or later, and then it doesn't matter what anyone claimed or conceded, no?
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Here's one thing I don't understand.
Why is it important to "claim victory"? Why is it important whether a party "concedes"?
The official results will come in sooner or later, and then it doesn't matter what anyone claimed or conceded, no?