Understanding US election polls
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wrote on 29 Oct 2020, 12:30 last edited by
@89th said in Understanding US election polls:
The good news I think Biden will have such strong leads that it will minimize any waffling and delaying by Trump to concede defeat within a week or so after Nov 3.
God I hope so, but I lack your confidence.
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The good news I think Biden will have such strong leads that it will minimize any waffling and delaying by Trump to concede defeat within a week or so after Nov 3.
wrote on 29 Oct 2020, 14:31 last edited by@89th said in Understanding US election polls:
The good news I think Biden will have such strong leads that it will minimize any waffling and delaying by Trump to concede defeat within a week or so after Nov 3.
Frank Bruni: "There seems to me a greater possibility now of a commanding victory by Joe Biden, and the bigger the margin, the harder it would be for President Trump to play the cheated martyr, no matter how extensively he’s been rehearsing that role."
He goes on:
"I emphasize 'possibility.' There remains the very real chance that Biden will lose . . . . Here’s how my friend Doug Sosnik, who was the political director in Bill Clinton’s White House and continues to analyze voting trends and dynamics, assessed Trump’s prospects in an email to me and other journalists on Sunday:
'He continues to perform better in the battleground states that will determine the election than he does at the national level. Given the history of the 2016 campaign, Trump’s ability to turn his campaign around in the final days can’t be underestimated. Trump has a much more aggressive campaign schedule than Biden. He is drawing large crowds and is dominating local coverage in the battleground states where he is campaigning.'
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wrote on 29 Oct 2020, 14:33 last edited by
@89th said in Understanding US election polls:
So the polls are now even more in the bag for the dem
Shocking
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wrote on 29 Oct 2020, 14:42 last edited by
What I don't understand is the seemingly unquenchable optimism of the supporters of both sides.
I've never understood optimism. How many freaking times do you need to be let down before you finally see sense?
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What I don't understand is the seemingly unquenchable optimism of the supporters of both sides.
I've never understood optimism. How many freaking times do you need to be let down before you finally see sense?
wrote on 29 Oct 2020, 14:50 last edited by@Doctor-Phibes said in Understanding US election polls:
I've never understood optimism. How many freaking times do you need to be let down before you finally see sense?
Maybe we try one more time ...
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wrote on 29 Oct 2020, 15:01 last edited by
Why does Rice play Texas?
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@89th said in Understanding US election polls:
So the polls are now even more in the bag for the dem
Shocking
wrote on 29 Oct 2020, 15:05 last edited by@Copper said in Understanding US election polls:
So the polls are now even more in the bag for the dem
Those aren’t polls those are probabilities based on them.
Note that time itself moves them. Even if the polls stay static the mere fact that there’s less time on the clock decreases your ability to turn things around.
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wrote on 29 Oct 2020, 15:29 last edited by
Rasmussen banks on its likely voter algorithm versus most polls who use registered voters.
By all appearances many more people are voting this time.
The question in this context is who is converting more registered to likely voters.
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wrote on 29 Oct 2020, 15:33 last edited by
In other news Rasmussen has the Trump approve/disapprove spread at 52 vs 47, the biggest spread of the year I think.
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In other news Rasmussen has the Trump approve/disapprove spread at 52 vs 47, the biggest spread of the year I think.
wrote on 29 Oct 2020, 15:59 last edited by@Loki said in Understanding US election polls:
In other news Rasmussen has the Trump approve/disapprove spread at 52 vs 47, the biggest spread of the year
Don’t care about the spread, look at the numbers. 47% approve, Gallup has him at 46 and Emerson at 45. I’ve seen more Han a few analysts state the approval polls are far more important than the other polls and suggested that at 46% he wins narrowly, 47 he wins convincingly...
@89th , I still don’t like his chances that much but would be willing to put up a 4 pack of that 120 Minute...
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@Loki said in Understanding US election polls:
In other news Rasmussen has the Trump approve/disapprove spread at 52 vs 47, the biggest spread of the year
Don’t care about the spread, look at the numbers. 47% approve, Gallup has him at 46 and Emerson at 45. I’ve seen more Han a few analysts state the approval polls are far more important than the other polls and suggested that at 46% he wins narrowly, 47 he wins convincingly...
@89th , I still don’t like his chances that much but would be willing to put up a 4 pack of that 120 Minute...
wrote on 29 Oct 2020, 16:15 last edited by@LuFins-Dad said in Understanding US election polls:
@89th , I still don’t like his chances that much but would be willing to put up a 4 pack of that 120 Minute...
Jesus, what a lightweight. I will put up 240 bottles of Budweiser. The loser has to drink it.
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@LuFins-Dad said in Understanding US election polls:
@89th , I still don’t like his chances that much but would be willing to put up a 4 pack of that 120 Minute...
Jesus, what a lightweight. I will put up 240 bottles of Budweiser. The loser has to drink it.
wrote on 29 Oct 2020, 16:21 last edited by@Doctor-Phibes said in Understanding US election polls:
@LuFins-Dad said in Understanding US election polls:
@89th , I still don’t like his chances that much but would be willing to put up a 4 pack of that 120 Minute...
Jesus, what a lightweight. I will put up 240 bottles of Budweiser. The loser has to drink it.
The 4 pack of 120 Minute probably costs more than 10 cases of Budweiser...
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wrote on 29 Oct 2020, 16:43 last edited by
@LuFins-Dad deal. In fact, I’ll buy you 4 of those 4 packs and you only have to buy 1. Want to give you the odds!
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Anecdotally speaking, I don’t now a single person that voted for Trump in 16 that won’t be voting for him this time. I know a very few that voted Clinton in 16 that won’t be voting Biden, and I know a fair number like myself that voted 3rd party or just abstained in 16 because they couldn’t stand either that are strongly considering or already have pulled the lever for Trump. Hell, Aqua’s considering it...
There have been record numbers of new voter registrations and while the Dems have gotten more numbers, it appears that Trump’s teams have won some of the important battleground states. I am not going to make any predictions at all except that I will be a little drunk on election night...
wrote on 29 Oct 2020, 16:54 last edited by@LuFins-Dad said in Understanding US election polls:
Anecdotally speaking, I don’t now a single person that voted for Trump in 16 that won’t be voting for him this time.
All the Mullen voters I know broke for Kanye.
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wrote on 29 Oct 2020, 16:55 last edited by
Seriously though, I know 1 Trump voter who (already) voted Biden. She was one of the famed ‘Obama-Trump’ voters.
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@Doctor-Phibes said in Understanding US election polls:
@LuFins-Dad said in Understanding US election polls:
@89th , I still don’t like his chances that much but would be willing to put up a 4 pack of that 120 Minute...
Jesus, what a lightweight. I will put up 240 bottles of Budweiser. The loser has to drink it.
The 4 pack of 120 Minute probably costs more than 10 cases of Budweiser...
wrote on 29 Oct 2020, 17:00 last edited by@LuFins-Dad said in Understanding US election polls:
@Doctor-Phibes said in Understanding US election polls:
@LuFins-Dad said in Understanding US election polls:
@89th , I still don’t like his chances that much but would be willing to put up a 4 pack of that 120 Minute...
Jesus, what a lightweight. I will put up 240 bottles of Budweiser. The loser has to drink it.
The 4 pack of 120 Minute probably costs more than 10 cases of Budweiser...
Is that stuff actually drinkable? The only beer I've had anywhere near that strong was barley wine, and it was pretty disgusting. There's also a long story associated with it which for legal reasons I can't go into here.
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wrote on 29 Oct 2020, 17:03 last edited by
Several of you are seriously going to require therapy once Biden loses. Seriously.
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wrote on 29 Oct 2020, 17:11 last edited by
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@LuFins-Dad said in Understanding US election polls:
@Doctor-Phibes said in Understanding US election polls:
@LuFins-Dad said in Understanding US election polls:
@89th , I still don’t like his chances that much but would be willing to put up a 4 pack of that 120 Minute...
Jesus, what a lightweight. I will put up 240 bottles of Budweiser. The loser has to drink it.
The 4 pack of 120 Minute probably costs more than 10 cases of Budweiser...
Is that stuff actually drinkable? The only beer I've had anywhere near that strong was barley wine, and it was pretty disgusting. There's also a long story associated with it which for legal reasons I can't go into here.
wrote on 29 Oct 2020, 17:17 last edited by@Doctor-Phibes said in Understanding US election polls:
@LuFins-Dad said in Understanding US election polls:
@Doctor-Phibes said in Understanding US election polls:
@LuFins-Dad said in Understanding US election polls:
@89th , I still don’t like his chances that much but would be willing to put up a 4 pack of that 120 Minute...
Jesus, what a lightweight. I will put up 240 bottles of Budweiser. The loser has to drink it.
The 4 pack of 120 Minute probably costs more than 10 cases of Budweiser...
Is that stuff actually drinkable? The only beer I've had anywhere near that strong was barley wine, and it was pretty disgusting. There's also a long story associated with it which for legal reasons I can't go into here.
Yes, for being 15-20% ABV, it doesn't taste that alcoholic. The hops smell/taste is very potent, but it's great if you love IPAs like I do.
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wrote on 29 Oct 2020, 19:24 last edited by xenon
There are so many potential reasons why turnout will be different this year:
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Young people are all cooped up and might actually see voting as "something to do"
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Backlash to wokeness
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COVID suppresses in-person senior vote
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etc.
Turnout is harder to model than sentiment - so I'm not going to be surprised with any outcome here.
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