Understanding US election polls
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@89th said in Understanding US election polls:
The good news I think Biden will have such strong leads that it will minimize any waffling and delaying by Trump to concede defeat within a week or so after Nov 3.
God I hope so, but I lack your confidence.
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The good news I think Biden will have such strong leads that it will minimize any waffling and delaying by Trump to concede defeat within a week or so after Nov 3.
@89th said in Understanding US election polls:
The good news I think Biden will have such strong leads that it will minimize any waffling and delaying by Trump to concede defeat within a week or so after Nov 3.
Frank Bruni: "There seems to me a greater possibility now of a commanding victory by Joe Biden, and the bigger the margin, the harder it would be for President Trump to play the cheated martyr, no matter how extensively he’s been rehearsing that role."
He goes on:
"I emphasize 'possibility.' There remains the very real chance that Biden will lose . . . . Here’s how my friend Doug Sosnik, who was the political director in Bill Clinton’s White House and continues to analyze voting trends and dynamics, assessed Trump’s prospects in an email to me and other journalists on Sunday:
'He continues to perform better in the battleground states that will determine the election than he does at the national level. Given the history of the 2016 campaign, Trump’s ability to turn his campaign around in the final days can’t be underestimated. Trump has a much more aggressive campaign schedule than Biden. He is drawing large crowds and is dominating local coverage in the battleground states where he is campaigning.'
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What I don't understand is the seemingly unquenchable optimism of the supporters of both sides.
I've never understood optimism. How many freaking times do you need to be let down before you finally see sense?
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What I don't understand is the seemingly unquenchable optimism of the supporters of both sides.
I've never understood optimism. How many freaking times do you need to be let down before you finally see sense?
@Doctor-Phibes said in Understanding US election polls:
I've never understood optimism. How many freaking times do you need to be let down before you finally see sense?
Maybe we try one more time ...
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@89th said in Understanding US election polls:
So the polls are now even more in the bag for the dem
Shocking
@Copper said in Understanding US election polls:
So the polls are now even more in the bag for the dem
Those aren’t polls those are probabilities based on them.
Note that time itself moves them. Even if the polls stay static the mere fact that there’s less time on the clock decreases your ability to turn things around.
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In other news Rasmussen has the Trump approve/disapprove spread at 52 vs 47, the biggest spread of the year I think.
@Loki said in Understanding US election polls:
In other news Rasmussen has the Trump approve/disapprove spread at 52 vs 47, the biggest spread of the year
Don’t care about the spread, look at the numbers. 47% approve, Gallup has him at 46 and Emerson at 45. I’ve seen more Han a few analysts state the approval polls are far more important than the other polls and suggested that at 46% he wins narrowly, 47 he wins convincingly...
@89th , I still don’t like his chances that much but would be willing to put up a 4 pack of that 120 Minute...
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@Loki said in Understanding US election polls:
In other news Rasmussen has the Trump approve/disapprove spread at 52 vs 47, the biggest spread of the year
Don’t care about the spread, look at the numbers. 47% approve, Gallup has him at 46 and Emerson at 45. I’ve seen more Han a few analysts state the approval polls are far more important than the other polls and suggested that at 46% he wins narrowly, 47 he wins convincingly...
@89th , I still don’t like his chances that much but would be willing to put up a 4 pack of that 120 Minute...
@LuFins-Dad said in Understanding US election polls:
@89th , I still don’t like his chances that much but would be willing to put up a 4 pack of that 120 Minute...
Jesus, what a lightweight. I will put up 240 bottles of Budweiser. The loser has to drink it.
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@LuFins-Dad said in Understanding US election polls:
@89th , I still don’t like his chances that much but would be willing to put up a 4 pack of that 120 Minute...
Jesus, what a lightweight. I will put up 240 bottles of Budweiser. The loser has to drink it.
@Doctor-Phibes said in Understanding US election polls:
@LuFins-Dad said in Understanding US election polls:
@89th , I still don’t like his chances that much but would be willing to put up a 4 pack of that 120 Minute...
Jesus, what a lightweight. I will put up 240 bottles of Budweiser. The loser has to drink it.
The 4 pack of 120 Minute probably costs more than 10 cases of Budweiser...
The Brad
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@LuFins-Dad deal. In fact, I’ll buy you 4 of those 4 packs and you only have to buy 1. Want to give you the odds!
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Anecdotally speaking, I don’t now a single person that voted for Trump in 16 that won’t be voting for him this time. I know a very few that voted Clinton in 16 that won’t be voting Biden, and I know a fair number like myself that voted 3rd party or just abstained in 16 because they couldn’t stand either that are strongly considering or already have pulled the lever for Trump. Hell, Aqua’s considering it...
There have been record numbers of new voter registrations and while the Dems have gotten more numbers, it appears that Trump’s teams have won some of the important battleground states. I am not going to make any predictions at all except that I will be a little drunk on election night...
@LuFins-Dad said in Understanding US election polls:
Anecdotally speaking, I don’t now a single person that voted for Trump in 16 that won’t be voting for him this time.
All the Mullen voters I know broke for Kanye.
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@Doctor-Phibes said in Understanding US election polls:
@LuFins-Dad said in Understanding US election polls:
@89th , I still don’t like his chances that much but would be willing to put up a 4 pack of that 120 Minute...
Jesus, what a lightweight. I will put up 240 bottles of Budweiser. The loser has to drink it.
The 4 pack of 120 Minute probably costs more than 10 cases of Budweiser...
@LuFins-Dad said in Understanding US election polls:
@Doctor-Phibes said in Understanding US election polls:
@LuFins-Dad said in Understanding US election polls:
@89th , I still don’t like his chances that much but would be willing to put up a 4 pack of that 120 Minute...
Jesus, what a lightweight. I will put up 240 bottles of Budweiser. The loser has to drink it.
The 4 pack of 120 Minute probably costs more than 10 cases of Budweiser...
Is that stuff actually drinkable? The only beer I've had anywhere near that strong was barley wine, and it was pretty disgusting. There's also a long story associated with it which for legal reasons I can't go into here.
I was only joking
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@LuFins-Dad said in Understanding US election polls:
@Doctor-Phibes said in Understanding US election polls:
@LuFins-Dad said in Understanding US election polls:
@89th , I still don’t like his chances that much but would be willing to put up a 4 pack of that 120 Minute...
Jesus, what a lightweight. I will put up 240 bottles of Budweiser. The loser has to drink it.
The 4 pack of 120 Minute probably costs more than 10 cases of Budweiser...
Is that stuff actually drinkable? The only beer I've had anywhere near that strong was barley wine, and it was pretty disgusting. There's also a long story associated with it which for legal reasons I can't go into here.
@Doctor-Phibes said in Understanding US election polls:
@LuFins-Dad said in Understanding US election polls:
@Doctor-Phibes said in Understanding US election polls:
@LuFins-Dad said in Understanding US election polls:
@89th , I still don’t like his chances that much but would be willing to put up a 4 pack of that 120 Minute...
Jesus, what a lightweight. I will put up 240 bottles of Budweiser. The loser has to drink it.
The 4 pack of 120 Minute probably costs more than 10 cases of Budweiser...
Is that stuff actually drinkable? The only beer I've had anywhere near that strong was barley wine, and it was pretty disgusting. There's also a long story associated with it which for legal reasons I can't go into here.
Yes, for being 15-20% ABV, it doesn't taste that alcoholic. The hops smell/taste is very potent, but it's great if you love IPAs like I do.
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There are so many potential reasons why turnout will be different this year:
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Young people are all cooped up and might actually see voting as "something to do"
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Backlash to wokeness
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COVID suppresses in-person senior vote
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etc.
Turnout is harder to model than sentiment - so I'm not going to be surprised with any outcome here.
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