The Iran War (was Nuclear Program) thread
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They have different cost/benefit analyses.
Yeah that's the crux of what the opposition to the war wants to lay bare. People are suspicious that we don't actually have different goals.
So what is your hunch on the matter?
I reject the stuff about Israel having dirt on Trump and forcing him to do stuff. That's a very popular theory, online at least. "Because there's no other possible reason". That's always a red flag when it appears in someone's chain of logic. There's rarely "no other possible reason".
I just think the current admin (and previous ones) considers Israel to be an American outpost in the middle east. But if Israel goes their own way, I suspect those ties can be severed, even by this administration. To say nothing of future admins. Seems almost inevitable that this is the last fiercely pro-Israel American administration. The accusations of anti-semitism in an effort to silence opposition to Israel support, are as played out as any other accusation of systemic racism.
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They have different cost/benefit analyses.
Yeah that's the crux of what the opposition to the war wants to lay bare. People are suspicious that we don't actually have different goals.
So what is your hunch on the matter?
I reject the stuff about Israel having dirt on Trump and forcing him to do stuff. That's a very popular theory, online at least. "Because there's no other possible reason". That's always a red flag when it appears in someone's chain of logic. There's rarely "no other possible reason".
I just think the current admin (and previous ones) considers Israel to be an American outpost in the middle east. But if Israel goes their own way, I suspect those ties can be severed, even by this administration. To say nothing of future admins. Seems almost inevitable that this is the last fiercely pro-Israel American administration. The accusations of anti-semitism in an effort to silence opposition to Israel support, are as played out as any other accusation of systemic racism.
They have different cost/benefit analyses.
Yeah that's the crux of what the opposition to the war wants to lay bare. People are suspicious that we don't actually have different goals.
So what is your hunch on the matter?
I reject the stuff about Israel having dirt on Trump and forcing him to do stuff. That's a very popular theory, online at least. "Because there's no other possible reason". That's always a red flag when it appears in someone's chain of logic. There's rarely "no other possible reason".
I too doubt Netanyahu has much of anything on Trump other than some dubious money deals that went down long before he took up elected office. Probably involves mobster Russian Jews and their ill gotten gains arising from the demise of the USSR and the anarchy of the Yeltsin era.
I just think the current admin (and previous ones) considers Israel to be an American outpost in the middle east. But if Israel goes their own way, I suspect those ties can be severed, even by this administration. To say nothing of future admins. Seems almost inevitable that this is the last fiercely pro-Israel American administration. The accusations of anti-semitism in an effort to silence opposition to Israel support, are as played out as any other accusation of systemic racism.
You have mentioned all that before. I am more interested in your personal
hunch regarding the distracting dog’s breakfast of choice that is now Iran and the Persian Gulf. -
No strong opinion about Trump's motivations. The fact that Rubio said right after the start that Israel said it was going with or without the US, and that played a role, seems feasible. Even if he did walk that back at some point. Not sure how or why he would have said that if there's wasn't some truth to it.
Clearly Trump likes the feeling that he's a strong man capable of exerting his will on the world by way of military force. So that played a role too.
It's probably important not to imagine reasoning that seems complicated or nuanced, because Trump doesn't do complicated or nuanced.
Education is extremely important.
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No strong opinion about Trump's motivations. The fact that Rubio said right after the start that Israel said it was going with or without the US, and that played a role, seems feasible. Even if he did walk that back at some point. Not sure how or why he would have said that if there's wasn't some truth to it.
Clearly Trump likes the feeling that he's a strong man capable of exerting his will on the world by way of military force. So that played a role too.
It's probably important not to imagine reasoning that seems complicated or nuanced, because Trump doesn't do complicated or nuanced.
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We'll see. It is not set in stone, and any confident prediction that Trump is capable of effecting a unilateral cease-fire from Israel's side is posturing. It may turn out to be true that Israel doesn't respond this time, maybe, but it's hardly definite. Bibi is vowing reprisal as we speak.
Also it seems to me that Bibi has not acted as Trump's puppet throughout this conflict, and has done things against Trump's wishes from time to time.
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Israel strikes back at Iran:
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/clyengg72pgt?post=asset%3Ac527b3f3-b40b-4fd2-8654-5fe3abb0a137#post
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The Most Important Man in the World isn't going to like that. Once he wakes up from his nap, of course.
I'm pretty certain the West's military-industrial complex is up to the job of replacing whatever is used quicker than any of us imagine; and also of prioritising production, e.g. of useful new arms such as long range drones.
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