The Iran War (was Nuclear Program) thread
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From Greg Brew:
Imagine you are Iran's leadership. You fought the US to a draw. You control the Strait of Hormuz. Trump's advisors are telling reporters that he is desperate for a deal, unwilling to return to bombing, and eager to move on.
Do you accept US demands on the nuclear program...or do you keep negotiating, in the hopes of securing an even better deal?
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When this is all over, things will pretty much the way they were before this started. (Yes, there will be some talk on nuclear, but definitely Iran will have some sort of program, whether for civilian or military use.)
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Maybe they have others whispering about possible concessions just enough to string him along.
Via the good offices of the Kremlin and the FSB, the Iranians are passing negotiation points and concessions to Steve “Dim Philby” Witkoff during his nightly sleeps. Then the next day, Dim then passes them to Trump during breakfast or work hours or if it’s a weekend, at the golf course.
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IN THE STRAIT of Hormuz, Iran has developed an asymmetrical naval strategy that is crippling the passage of container ships. This “hemostat” uses guerrilla tactics, after Iran's “traditional” fleet was almost entirely destroyed by US and Israeli attacks. No longer able to rely on specialized military ships, Tehran is using an unconventional force made up of dozens of small military vessels armed with missiles, machine guns, and drones. Quick and nimble, this “mosquito fleet” is capable of assaulting ships carrying tons of cargo.
In mid-April, US president Donald Trump had reassured the public in a post on Truth Social that Iran's hemostat fleet did not pose a major problem for the US and Israel. “The Iranian Navy lies at the bottom of the sea, completely annihilated: 158 ships,” Trump wrote. “What we didn't hit are their small numbers of what they call ‘fast attack boats’ because we didn't consider them a big threat.” Less than 10 days later, on April 22, an Iranian attack conducted with the small vessels led to the seizure of two large container ships leaving the Strait of Hormuz, changing the course of the war.
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“The effectiveness of Iran's fleet of small boats comes from their numbers and their use in swarms, which makes them difficult to counter,” Eisenstadt adds. “Iran has over a thousand of these small boats armed with rockets, machine guns, anti-ship missiles, and mines.” In this way, Tehran can pose a serious naval threat even though much of its military fleet has been destroyed.
“As Iran showed in March, it can close the straits by launching only a few dozen drones against oil tankers and cargo ships in the Persian Gulf,
https://www.wired.com/story/iran-is-using-tiny-mosquito-boats-to-shut-down-the-strait-of-hormuz/
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I suspect we could keep some planes surveilling the area in play. An A10 should handle little boats nicely.
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Same song, different day.
United States President Donald Trump has announced he will postpone a “scheduled attack” against Iran at the request of regional leaders in the Middle East.
The reversal, he said, came in light of the fact that “serious negotiations are now taking place”.
“A Deal will be made, which will be very acceptable to the United States of America, as well as all Countries in the Middle East, and beyond,” Trump wrote on his Truth Social account.
It is unclear what, if any, breakthrough has been made in the stalled negotiations to end the conflict between the US, Israel and Iran.
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