The Iran War (was Nuclear Program) thread
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The U.S. and Iran are teetering on the brink of a dangerous new phase of the war, as both turn to military force to break a standoff in the Strait of Hormuz that has paralyzed shipping and imposed costs on both sides.
Fighting flared for the first time in about a month Monday, with the U.S. Navy trying to open the waterway and Iran hitting commercial ships to keep it closed.
The U.S. said it used Apache helicopters to sink Iranian speedboats harassing traffic in the strait. Iran hit a critical oil port in the United Arab Emirates and several vessels around the strategic waterway.
The return to a more openly violent chapter will test both sides. Each has reason to try to force an end to the current paralysis in the strait. But they also face substantial risks if the skirmishing escalates out of control—for Iran, greater damage to its economy and leadership, and for President Trump, deeper involvement in a war that is unpopular at home.
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From Greg Brew:
Imagine you are Iran's leadership. You fought the US to a draw. You control the Strait of Hormuz. Trump's advisors are telling reporters that he is desperate for a deal, unwilling to return to bombing, and eager to move on.
Do you accept US demands on the nuclear program...or do you keep negotiating, in the hopes of securing an even better deal?
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When this is all over, things will pretty much the way they were before this started. (Yes, there will be some talk on nuclear, but definitely Iran will have some sort of program, whether for civilian or military use.)
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Maybe they have others whispering about possible concessions just enough to string him along.
Via the good offices of the Kremlin and the FSB, the Iranians are passing negotiation points and concessions to Steve “Dim Philby” Witkoff during his nightly sleeps. Then the next day, Dim then passes them to Trump during breakfast or work hours or if it’s a weekend, at the golf course.
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IN THE STRAIT of Hormuz, Iran has developed an asymmetrical naval strategy that is crippling the passage of container ships. This “hemostat” uses guerrilla tactics, after Iran's “traditional” fleet was almost entirely destroyed by US and Israeli attacks. No longer able to rely on specialized military ships, Tehran is using an unconventional force made up of dozens of small military vessels armed with missiles, machine guns, and drones. Quick and nimble, this “mosquito fleet” is capable of assaulting ships carrying tons of cargo.
In mid-April, US president Donald Trump had reassured the public in a post on Truth Social that Iran's hemostat fleet did not pose a major problem for the US and Israel. “The Iranian Navy lies at the bottom of the sea, completely annihilated: 158 ships,” Trump wrote. “What we didn't hit are their small numbers of what they call ‘fast attack boats’ because we didn't consider them a big threat.” Less than 10 days later, on April 22, an Iranian attack conducted with the small vessels led to the seizure of two large container ships leaving the Strait of Hormuz, changing the course of the war.
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“The effectiveness of Iran's fleet of small boats comes from their numbers and their use in swarms, which makes them difficult to counter,” Eisenstadt adds. “Iran has over a thousand of these small boats armed with rockets, machine guns, anti-ship missiles, and mines.” In this way, Tehran can pose a serious naval threat even though much of its military fleet has been destroyed.
“As Iran showed in March, it can close the straits by launching only a few dozen drones against oil tankers and cargo ships in the Persian Gulf,
https://www.wired.com/story/iran-is-using-tiny-mosquito-boats-to-shut-down-the-strait-of-hormuz/
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