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The New Coffee Room

  1. TNCR
  2. General Discussion
  3. It’s starting

It’s starting

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  • 8 Offline
    8 Offline
    89th
    wrote on 10 Sept 2024, 12:00 last edited by
    #45

    Yeah much more risk for her in this debate. My predictions have been bad lately but overall there is a big shift (probably due to media coverage) of the awkward and cold approach of Trump/Vance and the authentic, warm, hopeful approach of Harris... like a mini Obama feeling from 2008 in terms of excitement and hope from her crowd. Hard to see her losing, which is something I really didn't think would happen a few months ago.

    G L 2 Replies Last reply 10 Sept 2024, 12:21
    • 8 89th
      10 Sept 2024, 12:00

      Yeah much more risk for her in this debate. My predictions have been bad lately but overall there is a big shift (probably due to media coverage) of the awkward and cold approach of Trump/Vance and the authentic, warm, hopeful approach of Harris... like a mini Obama feeling from 2008 in terms of excitement and hope from her crowd. Hard to see her losing, which is something I really didn't think would happen a few months ago.

      G Offline
      G Offline
      George K
      wrote on 10 Sept 2024, 12:21 last edited by
      #46

      @89th said in It’s starting:

      Yeah much more risk for her in this debate.

      Will she debate again? Wasn't the original agreement that there be three debates? Well, depending on how you look at it, there has been one, or zero debates so far.

      "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

      The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

      1 Reply Last reply
      • 8 89th
        10 Sept 2024, 12:00

        Yeah much more risk for her in this debate. My predictions have been bad lately but overall there is a big shift (probably due to media coverage) of the awkward and cold approach of Trump/Vance and the authentic, warm, hopeful approach of Harris... like a mini Obama feeling from 2008 in terms of excitement and hope from her crowd. Hard to see her losing, which is something I really didn't think would happen a few months ago.

        L Offline
        L Offline
        LuFins Dad
        wrote on 10 Sept 2024, 13:14 last edited by
        #47

        @89th said in It’s starting:

        Yeah much more risk for her in this debate. My predictions have been bad lately but overall there is a big shift (probably due to media coverage) of the awkward and cold approach of Trump/Vance and the authentic, warm, hopeful approach of Harris... like a mini Obama feeling from 2008 in terms of excitement and hope from her crowd. Hard to see her losing, which is something I really didn't think would happen a few months ago.

        I really think you are misreading the mood and momentum. Kamala had a ton of momentum going into the convention, but that has all stalled out. It started with the interview on CNN, and it’s gotten worse throughout the continued lack of policy positions, flips, Bernie saying the quiet part out loud, and the underlying suspicion of Walz. The polls have reversed course, with the last NYT/Sienna poll having Trump up +1 nationally, and the battleground states are worse.

        What I’m seeing from Western PA, Michigan, and Blue Collar white areas is not joy, but anger, and it’s getting worse. In North Carolina and Georgia, Kamala is ringing false with the black community, and as a whole, they are a divided voting block. Dems can’t afford that. They need 90% of the black vote. The only real progress she’s had has been in the sun belt.

        Oh, and this Haitian eating cats thing? It has legs, especially when paired with her proud speech about relocating several hundred thousand Haitians.

        The Brad

        G 1 Reply Last reply 10 Sept 2024, 13:19
        • L LuFins Dad
          10 Sept 2024, 13:14

          @89th said in It’s starting:

          Yeah much more risk for her in this debate. My predictions have been bad lately but overall there is a big shift (probably due to media coverage) of the awkward and cold approach of Trump/Vance and the authentic, warm, hopeful approach of Harris... like a mini Obama feeling from 2008 in terms of excitement and hope from her crowd. Hard to see her losing, which is something I really didn't think would happen a few months ago.

          I really think you are misreading the mood and momentum. Kamala had a ton of momentum going into the convention, but that has all stalled out. It started with the interview on CNN, and it’s gotten worse throughout the continued lack of policy positions, flips, Bernie saying the quiet part out loud, and the underlying suspicion of Walz. The polls have reversed course, with the last NYT/Sienna poll having Trump up +1 nationally, and the battleground states are worse.

          What I’m seeing from Western PA, Michigan, and Blue Collar white areas is not joy, but anger, and it’s getting worse. In North Carolina and Georgia, Kamala is ringing false with the black community, and as a whole, they are a divided voting block. Dems can’t afford that. They need 90% of the black vote. The only real progress she’s had has been in the sun belt.

          Oh, and this Haitian eating cats thing? It has legs, especially when paired with her proud speech about relocating several hundred thousand Haitians.

          G Offline
          G Offline
          George K
          wrote on 10 Sept 2024, 13:19 last edited by
          #48

          @LuFins-Dad said in It’s starting:

          Kamala is ringing false with the black community

          I think it was in Georgia where Trump won 9% of the black vote in 2020.

          He's polling at 17% this week in that demographic.

          "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

          The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

          1 Reply Last reply
          • L Offline
            L Offline
            LuFins Dad
            wrote on 10 Sept 2024, 13:51 last edited by
            #49

            Silver’s latest model has Trump at 63.8%. Here’s his electoral map:

            alt text

            The Brad

            1 Reply Last reply
            • 8 Offline
              8 Offline
              89th
              wrote on 10 Sept 2024, 16:13 last edited by
              #50

              Wow, yeah I'm probably wrong. Unfortunately if it's close, it'll feed the conspiracy/election deniers.... would rather have a landslide (even more than Biden's landslide) victory for one side or another.

              1 Reply Last reply
              • L Offline
                L Offline
                LuFins Dad
                wrote on 10 Sept 2024, 17:23 last edited by LuFins Dad 9 Oct 2024, 17:24
                #51

                Trump’s lead is as big as it’s been against Kamala. Tonight, he has the high bar of not being a complete dick. She has the much higher bar of showing she actually has policies and plans people would like.

                alt text

                The Brad

                H 1 Reply Last reply 10 Sept 2024, 17:51
                • L LuFins Dad
                  10 Sept 2024, 17:23

                  Trump’s lead is as big as it’s been against Kamala. Tonight, he has the high bar of not being a complete dick. She has the much higher bar of showing she actually has policies and plans people would like.

                  alt text

                  H Offline
                  H Offline
                  Horace
                  wrote on 10 Sept 2024, 17:51 last edited by Horace 9 Oct 2024, 17:52
                  #52

                  @LuFins-Dad said in It’s starting:

                  Trump’s lead is as big as it’s been against Kamala. Tonight, he has the high bar of not being a complete dick. She has the much higher bar of showing she actually has policies and plans people would like.

                  alt text

                  Trump is inching closer to seeming human, at least based on the interview I saw recently with Fridman. But he will no doubt fail to pass simple tests of self-control in the debate, and Kamala will wink to the audience and project joy when he does. I have no doubt she has spent quality time with mirrors and body language consultants to perfect whatever it is she will be nonverbally communicating when Trump acts like Trump.

                  Also, I note that Silver himself calls this model a "prediction" of the election results.

                  Education is extremely important.

                  J 1 Reply Last reply 10 Sept 2024, 20:45
                  • H Horace
                    10 Sept 2024, 17:51

                    @LuFins-Dad said in It’s starting:

                    Trump’s lead is as big as it’s been against Kamala. Tonight, he has the high bar of not being a complete dick. She has the much higher bar of showing she actually has policies and plans people would like.

                    alt text

                    Trump is inching closer to seeming human, at least based on the interview I saw recently with Fridman. But he will no doubt fail to pass simple tests of self-control in the debate, and Kamala will wink to the audience and project joy when he does. I have no doubt she has spent quality time with mirrors and body language consultants to perfect whatever it is she will be nonverbally communicating when Trump acts like Trump.

                    Also, I note that Silver himself calls this model a "prediction" of the election results.

                    J Offline
                    J Offline
                    Jolly
                    wrote on 10 Sept 2024, 20:45 last edited by
                    #53

                    @Horace said in It’s starting:

                    Trump is inching closer to seeming human, at least based on the interview I saw recently with Fridman. But he will no doubt fail to pass simple tests of self-control in the debate, and Kamala will wink to the audience and project joy when he does. I have no doubt she has spent quality time with mirrors and body language consultants to perfect whatever it is she will be nonverbally communicating when Trump acts like Trump.

                    She's been working with the same debate coach Hillary worked with. The guy dresses like Trump and tries to debate in his style. They've also brought some Hollywood people to do some consulting... She 's gonna bait him like a bear.

                    Plus, the MSM spin for her will be terrific. Shucks, I think ABC has already declared her the winner...

                    “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

                    Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

                    J L 2 Replies Last reply 10 Sept 2024, 21:23
                    • J Jolly
                      10 Sept 2024, 20:45

                      @Horace said in It’s starting:

                      Trump is inching closer to seeming human, at least based on the interview I saw recently with Fridman. But he will no doubt fail to pass simple tests of self-control in the debate, and Kamala will wink to the audience and project joy when he does. I have no doubt she has spent quality time with mirrors and body language consultants to perfect whatever it is she will be nonverbally communicating when Trump acts like Trump.

                      She's been working with the same debate coach Hillary worked with. The guy dresses like Trump and tries to debate in his style. They've also brought some Hollywood people to do some consulting... She 's gonna bait him like a bear.

                      Plus, the MSM spin for her will be terrific. Shucks, I think ABC has already declared her the winner...

                      J Online
                      J Online
                      jon-nyc
                      wrote on 10 Sept 2024, 21:23 last edited by
                      #54

                      @Jolly said in It’s starting:

                      I think ABC has already declared her the winner...

                      Look at their publicity graphic.

                      IMG_0011.jpeg

                      Just kidding that’s from the Harris campaign.

                      You were warned.

                      1 Reply Last reply
                      • J Jolly
                        10 Sept 2024, 20:45

                        @Horace said in It’s starting:

                        Trump is inching closer to seeming human, at least based on the interview I saw recently with Fridman. But he will no doubt fail to pass simple tests of self-control in the debate, and Kamala will wink to the audience and project joy when he does. I have no doubt she has spent quality time with mirrors and body language consultants to perfect whatever it is she will be nonverbally communicating when Trump acts like Trump.

                        She's been working with the same debate coach Hillary worked with. The guy dresses like Trump and tries to debate in his style. They've also brought some Hollywood people to do some consulting... She 's gonna bait him like a bear.

                        Plus, the MSM spin for her will be terrific. Shucks, I think ABC has already declared her the winner...

                        L Offline
                        L Offline
                        LuFins Dad
                        wrote on 10 Sept 2024, 21:48 last edited by
                        #55

                        @Jolly said in It’s starting:

                        @Horace said in It’s starting:

                        Trump is inching closer to seeming human, at least based on the interview I saw recently with Fridman. But he will no doubt fail to pass simple tests of self-control in the debate, and Kamala will wink to the audience and project joy when he does. I have no doubt she has spent quality time with mirrors and body language consultants to perfect whatever it is she will be nonverbally communicating when Trump acts like Trump.

                        She's been working with the same debate coach Hillary worked with. The guy dresses like Trump and tries to debate in his style. They've also brought some Hollywood people to do some consulting... She 's gonna bait him like a bear.

                        Plus, the MSM spin for her will be terrific. Shucks, I think ABC has already declared her the winner...

                        70% of the population distrust the media. Ostensibly, a heavy media bias towards Kamala would help Trump.

                        The Brad

                        1 Reply Last reply
                        • J Offline
                          J Offline
                          Jolly
                          wrote on 10 Sept 2024, 23:13 last edited by
                          #56

                          They may distrust them, but older people vote and the MSM is still their main source of info.

                          Shucks, look how a geezer like Jon leans on the NYT! 😜

                          “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

                          Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

                          1 Reply Last reply
                          • J Online
                            J Online
                            jon-nyc
                            wrote on 12 Sept 2024, 13:00 last edited by
                            #57

                            Betting markets flipped.

                            IMG_0045.png

                            https://www.forbes.com/sites/siladityaray/2024/09/11/harris-surges-past-trump-in-election-betting-markets-after-presidential-debate/

                            You were warned.

                            1 Reply Last reply
                            • D Offline
                              D Offline
                              Doctor Phibes
                              wrote on 12 Sept 2024, 13:14 last edited by
                              #58

                              I'm going to be a freaking gazillionaire when Michelle is elected.

                              I was only joking

                              1 Reply Last reply
                              • J Online
                                J Online
                                jon-nyc
                                wrote on 12 Sept 2024, 13:26 last edited by jon-nyc 9 Dec 2024, 13:27
                                #59

                                lol

                                Odd that Vance isn’t listed. One of the UK markets puts him a distant third, ahead of Michelle and the other names you see here.

                                You were warned.

                                8 1 Reply Last reply 12 Sept 2024, 17:22
                                • J Offline
                                  J Offline
                                  Jolly
                                  wrote on 12 Sept 2024, 14:30 last edited by
                                  #60

                                  Kinda expected that.

                                  I think you see them tighten back up, if she continues to stay in her basement.

                                  BTW, notice the behavior of the two candidates? After the debate, Trump left for the spin room and talked awhile. Kamala-lama-ding-dong went directly to her limo and left.

                                  “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

                                  Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

                                  G 1 Reply Last reply 19 Sept 2024, 12:46
                                  • J Online
                                    J Online
                                    jon-nyc
                                    wrote on 12 Sept 2024, 14:51 last edited by
                                    #61

                                    The daily show link shows a montage of him claiming polls say he won 92-7 or something.

                                    You were warned.

                                    1 Reply Last reply
                                    • D Offline
                                      D Offline
                                      Doctor Phibes
                                      wrote on 12 Sept 2024, 15:28 last edited by
                                      #62

                                      If you listen to him, Trump has never lost anything in his entire life.

                                      Considering how awesome he is, it's a little hard to understand why he always looks so bloody miserable.

                                      He's fatter bigger than Jesus!

                                      I was only joking

                                      1 Reply Last reply
                                      • L Offline
                                        L Offline
                                        LuFins Dad
                                        wrote on 12 Sept 2024, 15:41 last edited by
                                        #63

                                        Ayup. Good week for Kamala. Will be interesting to see how much it affects the polls next week.

                                        The Brad

                                        1 Reply Last reply
                                        • L Offline
                                          L Offline
                                          LuFins Dad
                                          wrote on 12 Sept 2024, 15:45 last edited by
                                          #64

                                          The first poll post-debate showed Kamala got the win, but Trump improved his position by .5% https://nypost.com/2024/09/11/us-news/kamala-harris-opens-up-narrow-lead-over-donald-trump-post-philadelphia-debate/

                                          The Brad

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