It’s starting

[taiwan_girl]

@jon-nyc said in It’s starting:

@Jolly said in It’s starting:

lTrump said his internal polling showed him almost 10 up in Iowa.

He also said polls show 92% of people thought he won the debate.

People who want to last working for PResident Trump learn to tell him what he wants to hear.

Otherwise, they will not be long working for him.

[jon-nyc]

Such a good quality in a leader.

[Jolly]

Well, today we'll see...

[jon-nyc]

Today? Damn you’re optimistic.

[jon-nyc]

[jon-nyc]

Interesting. From Nate.

The Univision poll I referenced earlier, exclusively of Latino voters in Pennsylvania, showed her with a 64-30 lead, much better than she’s polled for most of the year in crosstabs of Hispanic voters and also better than Biden in 2020. And for its climactic closing event at Madison Square Garden, the Trump campaign decided to feature a comedian who called Puerto Rico a “floating island of garbage”. The Hispanic population in Pennsylvania has an outsized number of Puerto Ricans.

[jon-nyc]

[jon-nyc]

My gut still says Trump unless there’s a surge of women voters due to Dobbs.

[Jolly]

@jon-nyc said in It’s starting:

Interesting. From Nate.

The Univision poll I referenced earlier, exclusively of Latino voters in Pennsylvania, showed her with a 64-30 lead, much better than she’s polled for most of the year in crosstabs of Hispanic voters and also better than Biden in 2020. And for its climactic closing event at Madison Square Garden, the Trump campaign decided to feature a comedian who called Puerto Rico a “floating island of garbage”. The Hispanic population in Pennsylvania has an outsized number of Puerto Ricans.

And that's how the media puts it's fingers on the scale. I doubt Trump vetted said comedian personally. The Trump Campaign issued a statement during the rally, disavowing that joke.

But instead of reporting on the crowd, the enthusiasm of the people in MSG or any points the different speakers made, most of the media focused on the Nazi rally of years past or the PR joke.

[LuFins Dad]

@jon-nyc said in It’s starting:

My gut still says Trump unless there’s a surge of unmarried women voters due to Dobbs.

FIFYNNTTM

[George K]

@jon-nyc said in It’s starting:

Biden won it 5-0 in 2020.

[jon-nyc]

@Jolly

My understanding is the comment was all anyone talked about on Spanish language radio the next day. You would have trouble finding a Latino that didn’t hear about it.

[LuFins Dad]

@jon-nyc said in It’s starting:

@Jolly

My understanding is the comment was all anyone talked about on Spanish language radio the next day. You would have trouble finding a Latino that didn’t hear about it.

We shall see. I know there’s a lot more “garbage” in PA than there are Puerto Ricans.

[LuFins Dad]

So here’s Nate’s final numbers and it’s a little confusing. They ran the model 80K times and Kamala won 40,012 of them. He points out that means nothing. He could have run it another 80K times and Trump would have winning… no statistical difference between 40,012 and 39,988…

But the weird thing is that looking at state by state modeling, it has Trump winning PA and the Sunbelt. Game over..

https://www.natesilver.net/p/a-random-number-generator-determined

[Mik]

[Copper]

And they all came back positive.

[LuFins Dad]

@jon-nyc said in It’s starting:

Interesting. From Nate.

The Univision poll I referenced earlier, exclusively of Latino voters in Pennsylvania, showed her with a 64-30 lead, much better than she’s polled for most of the year in crosstabs of Hispanic voters and also better than Biden in 2020. And for its climactic closing event at Madison Square Garden, the Trump campaign decided to feature a comedian who called Puerto Rico a “floating island of garbage”. The Hispanic population in Pennsylvania has an outsized number of Puerto Ricans.

The largest Puerto Rican community in the continental US. Trump flipped it.

[jon-nyc]

So if she’s going to pull it off it’ll have to be due to her increased strength with whites generally and with women in particular. Relative to Biden.

[Jolly]

@jon-nyc said in It’s starting:

So if she’s going to pull it off it’ll have to be due to her increased strength with whites generally and with women in particular. Relative to Biden.

Maybe.

Initial numbers show her doing better in some places, worse in others

Maybe we'll wind up 279-279.

Which is fine by me.

[George K]