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The New Coffee Room

  1. TNCR
  2. General Discussion
  3. It’s starting

It’s starting

Scheduled Pinned Locked Moved General Discussion
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  • A Offline
    A Offline
    Axtremus
    wrote on 5 Nov 2024, 06:10 last edited by
    #200

    https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model

    Last and final update: 12:30 a.m., Tuesday, November 5. Happy Election Day! At exactly midnight on Tuesday, we ran our simulation model for the final time in this election cycle. Out of 80,000 simulations, Kamala Harris won in 40,012 (50.015%) cases.

    That's Nate Silver's "pencils down" final answer for who his model predict will win the 2024 presidential election.

    G 1 Reply Last reply 6 Nov 2024, 04:07
    • A Offline
      A Offline
      Axtremus
      wrote on 5 Nov 2024, 06:29 last edited by
      #201

      Seth's final analysis:

      Link to video

      1 Reply Last reply
      • G George K
        5 Nov 2024, 00:27

        @Jolly said in It’s starting:

        The last poll that showed Harris up in Iowa

        Is that the Selzer poll?

        T Offline
        T Offline
        taiwan_girl
        wrote on 5 Nov 2024, 10:14 last edited by
        #202

        @George-K said in It’s starting:

        @Jolly said in It’s starting:

        The last poll that showed Harris up in Iowa

        Is that the Selzer poll?

        I believe so. See my post #186

        1 Reply Last reply
        • J Jolly
          4 Nov 2024, 23:40

          The last poll that showed Harris up in Iowa, conflicted with Trump's internal polling. Trump said his internal polling showed him almost 10 up in Iowa.

          J Online
          J Online
          jon-nyc
          wrote on 5 Nov 2024, 10:17 last edited by
          #203

          @Jolly said in It’s starting:

          lTrump said his internal polling showed him almost 10 up in Iowa.

          He also said polls show 92% of people thought he won the debate.

          "You never know what worse luck your bad luck has saved you from."
          -Cormac McCarthy

          T 1 Reply Last reply 5 Nov 2024, 10:18
          • J jon-nyc
            5 Nov 2024, 10:17

            @Jolly said in It’s starting:

            lTrump said his internal polling showed him almost 10 up in Iowa.

            He also said polls show 92% of people thought he won the debate.

            T Offline
            T Offline
            taiwan_girl
            wrote on 5 Nov 2024, 10:18 last edited by
            #204

            @jon-nyc said in It’s starting:

            @Jolly said in It’s starting:

            lTrump said his internal polling showed him almost 10 up in Iowa.

            He also said polls show 92% of people thought he won the debate.

            People who want to last working for PResident Trump learn to tell him what he wants to hear.

            Otherwise, they will not be long working for him.

            1 Reply Last reply
            • J Online
              J Online
              jon-nyc
              wrote on 5 Nov 2024, 10:19 last edited by
              #205

              Such a good quality in a leader.

              "You never know what worse luck your bad luck has saved you from."
              -Cormac McCarthy

              1 Reply Last reply
              • J Offline
                J Offline
                Jolly
                wrote on 5 Nov 2024, 11:26 last edited by
                #206

                Well, today we'll see...

                “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

                Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

                1 Reply Last reply
                • J Online
                  J Online
                  jon-nyc
                  wrote on 5 Nov 2024, 11:34 last edited by
                  #207

                  Today? Damn you’re optimistic.

                  "You never know what worse luck your bad luck has saved you from."
                  -Cormac McCarthy

                  1 Reply Last reply
                  • J Online
                    J Online
                    jon-nyc
                    wrote on 5 Nov 2024, 11:46 last edited by
                    #208

                    "You never know what worse luck your bad luck has saved you from."
                    -Cormac McCarthy

                    1 Reply Last reply
                    • J Online
                      J Online
                      jon-nyc
                      wrote on 5 Nov 2024, 11:49 last edited by
                      #209

                      Interesting. From Nate.

                      The Univision poll I referenced earlier, exclusively of Latino voters in Pennsylvania, showed her with a 64-30 lead, much better than she’s polled for most of the year in crosstabs of Hispanic voters and also better than Biden in 2020. And for its climactic closing event at Madison Square Garden, the Trump campaign decided to feature a comedian who called Puerto Rico a “floating island of garbage”. The Hispanic population in Pennsylvania has an outsized number of Puerto Ricans.

                      "You never know what worse luck your bad luck has saved you from."
                      -Cormac McCarthy

                      J L 2 Replies Last reply 5 Nov 2024, 12:17
                      • J Online
                        J Online
                        jon-nyc
                        wrote on 5 Nov 2024, 11:53 last edited by
                        #210

                        "You never know what worse luck your bad luck has saved you from."
                        -Cormac McCarthy

                        G 1 Reply Last reply 5 Nov 2024, 13:54
                        • J Online
                          J Online
                          jon-nyc
                          wrote on 5 Nov 2024, 11:56 last edited by
                          #211

                          My gut still says Trump unless there’s a surge of women voters due to Dobbs.

                          "You never know what worse luck your bad luck has saved you from."
                          -Cormac McCarthy

                          L 1 Reply Last reply 5 Nov 2024, 12:58
                          • J jon-nyc
                            5 Nov 2024, 11:49

                            Interesting. From Nate.

                            The Univision poll I referenced earlier, exclusively of Latino voters in Pennsylvania, showed her with a 64-30 lead, much better than she’s polled for most of the year in crosstabs of Hispanic voters and also better than Biden in 2020. And for its climactic closing event at Madison Square Garden, the Trump campaign decided to feature a comedian who called Puerto Rico a “floating island of garbage”. The Hispanic population in Pennsylvania has an outsized number of Puerto Ricans.

                            J Offline
                            J Offline
                            Jolly
                            wrote on 5 Nov 2024, 12:17 last edited by Jolly 11 May 2024, 12:18
                            #212

                            @jon-nyc said in It’s starting:

                            Interesting. From Nate.

                            The Univision poll I referenced earlier, exclusively of Latino voters in Pennsylvania, showed her with a 64-30 lead, much better than she’s polled for most of the year in crosstabs of Hispanic voters and also better than Biden in 2020. And for its climactic closing event at Madison Square Garden, the Trump campaign decided to feature a comedian who called Puerto Rico a “floating island of garbage”. The Hispanic population in Pennsylvania has an outsized number of Puerto Ricans.

                            And that's how the media puts it's fingers on the scale. I doubt Trump vetted said comedian personally. The Trump Campaign issued a statement during the rally, disavowing that joke.

                            But instead of reporting on the crowd, the enthusiasm of the people in MSG or any points the different speakers made, most of the media focused on the Nazi rally of years past or the PR joke.

                            “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

                            Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

                            J 1 Reply Last reply 5 Nov 2024, 14:50
                            • J jon-nyc
                              5 Nov 2024, 11:56

                              My gut still says Trump unless there’s a surge of women voters due to Dobbs.

                              L Offline
                              L Offline
                              LuFins Dad
                              wrote on 5 Nov 2024, 12:58 last edited by
                              #213

                              @jon-nyc said in It’s starting:

                              My gut still says Trump unless there’s a surge of unmarried women voters due to Dobbs.

                              FIFYNNTTM

                              The Brad

                              1 Reply Last reply
                              • J jon-nyc
                                5 Nov 2024, 11:53

                                G Offline
                                G Offline
                                George K
                                wrote on 5 Nov 2024, 13:54 last edited by
                                #214

                                @jon-nyc said in It’s starting:

                                Biden won it 5-0 in 2020.

                                "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

                                The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

                                1 Reply Last reply
                                • J Jolly
                                  5 Nov 2024, 12:17

                                  @jon-nyc said in It’s starting:

                                  Interesting. From Nate.

                                  The Univision poll I referenced earlier, exclusively of Latino voters in Pennsylvania, showed her with a 64-30 lead, much better than she’s polled for most of the year in crosstabs of Hispanic voters and also better than Biden in 2020. And for its climactic closing event at Madison Square Garden, the Trump campaign decided to feature a comedian who called Puerto Rico a “floating island of garbage”. The Hispanic population in Pennsylvania has an outsized number of Puerto Ricans.

                                  And that's how the media puts it's fingers on the scale. I doubt Trump vetted said comedian personally. The Trump Campaign issued a statement during the rally, disavowing that joke.

                                  But instead of reporting on the crowd, the enthusiasm of the people in MSG or any points the different speakers made, most of the media focused on the Nazi rally of years past or the PR joke.

                                  J Online
                                  J Online
                                  jon-nyc
                                  wrote on 5 Nov 2024, 14:50 last edited by
                                  #215

                                  @Jolly

                                  My understanding is the comment was all anyone talked about on Spanish language radio the next day. You would have trouble finding a Latino that didn’t hear about it.

                                  "You never know what worse luck your bad luck has saved you from."
                                  -Cormac McCarthy

                                  L 1 Reply Last reply 5 Nov 2024, 16:04
                                  • J jon-nyc
                                    5 Nov 2024, 14:50

                                    @Jolly

                                    My understanding is the comment was all anyone talked about on Spanish language radio the next day. You would have trouble finding a Latino that didn’t hear about it.

                                    L Offline
                                    L Offline
                                    LuFins Dad
                                    wrote on 5 Nov 2024, 16:04 last edited by
                                    #216

                                    @jon-nyc said in It’s starting:

                                    @Jolly

                                    My understanding is the comment was all anyone talked about on Spanish language radio the next day. You would have trouble finding a Latino that didn’t hear about it.

                                    We shall see. I know there’s a lot more “garbage” in PA than there are Puerto Ricans.

                                    The Brad

                                    1 Reply Last reply
                                    • L Offline
                                      L Offline
                                      LuFins Dad
                                      wrote on 5 Nov 2024, 18:34 last edited by
                                      #217

                                      So here’s Nate’s final numbers and it’s a little confusing. They ran the model 80K times and Kamala won 40,012 of them. He points out that means nothing. He could have run it another 80K times and Trump would have winning… no statistical difference between 40,012 and 39,988…

                                      But the weird thing is that looking at state by state modeling, it has Trump winning PA and the Sunbelt. Game over..

                                      https://www.natesilver.net/p/a-random-number-generator-determined

                                      The Brad

                                      1 Reply Last reply
                                      • M Away
                                        M Away
                                        Mik
                                        wrote on 5 Nov 2024, 20:56 last edited by
                                        #218

                                        465911114_10233961754806482_1644089502855717443_n.jpg

                                        “I am fond of pigs. Dogs look up to us. Cats look down on us. Pigs treat us as equals.” ~Winston S. Churchill

                                        1 Reply Last reply
                                        😀
                                        • C Offline
                                          C Offline
                                          Copper
                                          wrote on 5 Nov 2024, 22:59 last edited by
                                          #219

                                          And they all came back positive.

                                          1 Reply Last reply
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