It’s starting
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wrote on 5 Nov 2024, 06:10 last edited by
https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model
Last and final update: 12:30 a.m., Tuesday, November 5. Happy Election Day! At exactly midnight on Tuesday, we ran our simulation model for the final time in this election cycle. Out of 80,000 simulations, Kamala Harris won in 40,012 (50.015%) cases.
That's Nate Silver's "pencils down" final answer for who his model predict will win the 2024 presidential election.
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wrote on 5 Nov 2024, 06:29 last edited by
Seth's final analysis:
Link to video
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wrote on 5 Nov 2024, 10:14 last edited by
@George-K said in It’s starting:
@Jolly said in It’s starting:
The last poll that showed Harris up in Iowa
Is that the Selzer poll?
I believe so. See my post #186
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The last poll that showed Harris up in Iowa, conflicted with Trump's internal polling. Trump said his internal polling showed him almost 10 up in Iowa.
wrote on 5 Nov 2024, 10:17 last edited by@Jolly said in It’s starting:
lTrump said his internal polling showed him almost 10 up in Iowa.
He also said polls show 92% of people thought he won the debate.
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@Jolly said in It’s starting:
lTrump said his internal polling showed him almost 10 up in Iowa.
He also said polls show 92% of people thought he won the debate.
wrote on 5 Nov 2024, 10:18 last edited by@jon-nyc said in It’s starting:
@Jolly said in It’s starting:
lTrump said his internal polling showed him almost 10 up in Iowa.
He also said polls show 92% of people thought he won the debate.
People who want to last working for PResident Trump learn to tell him what he wants to hear.
Otherwise, they will not be long working for him.
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wrote on 5 Nov 2024, 10:19 last edited by
Such a good quality in a leader.
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wrote on 5 Nov 2024, 11:26 last edited by
Well, today we'll see...
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wrote on 5 Nov 2024, 11:34 last edited by
Today? Damn you’re optimistic.
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wrote on 5 Nov 2024, 11:46 last edited by
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wrote on 5 Nov 2024, 11:49 last edited by
Interesting. From Nate.
The Univision poll I referenced earlier, exclusively of Latino voters in Pennsylvania, showed her with a 64-30 lead, much better than she’s polled for most of the year in crosstabs of Hispanic voters and also better than Biden in 2020. And for its climactic closing event at Madison Square Garden, the Trump campaign decided to feature a comedian who called Puerto Rico a “floating island of garbage”. The Hispanic population in Pennsylvania has an outsized number of Puerto Ricans.
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wrote on 5 Nov 2024, 11:53 last edited by
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wrote on 5 Nov 2024, 11:56 last edited by
My gut still says Trump unless there’s a surge of women voters due to Dobbs.
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Interesting. From Nate.
The Univision poll I referenced earlier, exclusively of Latino voters in Pennsylvania, showed her with a 64-30 lead, much better than she’s polled for most of the year in crosstabs of Hispanic voters and also better than Biden in 2020. And for its climactic closing event at Madison Square Garden, the Trump campaign decided to feature a comedian who called Puerto Rico a “floating island of garbage”. The Hispanic population in Pennsylvania has an outsized number of Puerto Ricans.
wrote on 5 Nov 2024, 12:17 last edited by Jolly 11 May 2024, 12:18@jon-nyc said in It’s starting:
Interesting. From Nate.
The Univision poll I referenced earlier, exclusively of Latino voters in Pennsylvania, showed her with a 64-30 lead, much better than she’s polled for most of the year in crosstabs of Hispanic voters and also better than Biden in 2020. And for its climactic closing event at Madison Square Garden, the Trump campaign decided to feature a comedian who called Puerto Rico a “floating island of garbage”. The Hispanic population in Pennsylvania has an outsized number of Puerto Ricans.
And that's how the media puts it's fingers on the scale. I doubt Trump vetted said comedian personally. The Trump Campaign issued a statement during the rally, disavowing that joke.
But instead of reporting on the crowd, the enthusiasm of the people in MSG or any points the different speakers made, most of the media focused on the Nazi rally of years past or the PR joke.
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wrote on 5 Nov 2024, 12:58 last edited by
@jon-nyc said in It’s starting:
My gut still says Trump unless there’s a surge of unmarried women voters due to Dobbs.
FIFYNNTTM
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wrote on 5 Nov 2024, 13:54 last edited by
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@jon-nyc said in It’s starting:
Interesting. From Nate.
The Univision poll I referenced earlier, exclusively of Latino voters in Pennsylvania, showed her with a 64-30 lead, much better than she’s polled for most of the year in crosstabs of Hispanic voters and also better than Biden in 2020. And for its climactic closing event at Madison Square Garden, the Trump campaign decided to feature a comedian who called Puerto Rico a “floating island of garbage”. The Hispanic population in Pennsylvania has an outsized number of Puerto Ricans.
And that's how the media puts it's fingers on the scale. I doubt Trump vetted said comedian personally. The Trump Campaign issued a statement during the rally, disavowing that joke.
But instead of reporting on the crowd, the enthusiasm of the people in MSG or any points the different speakers made, most of the media focused on the Nazi rally of years past or the PR joke.
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My understanding is the comment was all anyone talked about on Spanish language radio the next day. You would have trouble finding a Latino that didn’t hear about it.
wrote on 5 Nov 2024, 16:04 last edited by@jon-nyc said in It’s starting:
My understanding is the comment was all anyone talked about on Spanish language radio the next day. You would have trouble finding a Latino that didn’t hear about it.
We shall see. I know there’s a lot more “garbage” in PA than there are Puerto Ricans.
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wrote on 5 Nov 2024, 18:34 last edited by
So here’s Nate’s final numbers and it’s a little confusing. They ran the model 80K times and Kamala won 40,012 of them. He points out that means nothing. He could have run it another 80K times and Trump would have winning… no statistical difference between 40,012 and 39,988…
But the weird thing is that looking at state by state modeling, it has Trump winning PA and the Sunbelt. Game over..
https://www.natesilver.net/p/a-random-number-generator-determined
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wrote on 5 Nov 2024, 20:56 last edited by
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wrote on 5 Nov 2024, 22:59 last edited by
And they all came back positive.
