It’s starting
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wrote on 4 Nov 2024, 19:39 last edited by
Who benefits from polls with false information?
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wrote on 4 Nov 2024, 21:34 last edited by
Kamala-lama-ding-dong.
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wrote on 4 Nov 2024, 22:39 last edited by LuFins Dad 11 Apr 2024, 22:40
Internals are typically weighted towards the boss and can be far worse in accuracy than the published polls, but I can’t help but wonder what the internals are looking like to influence their decisions. Kamala has completely shifted again the last two days and hasn’t even mentioned Trump’s name once.
Now that could be the strategy from the beginning. Start with joy, then paint Trump as Hitler, then close positive… But it feels more like switching tactics since the last one didn’t work.
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wrote on 4 Nov 2024, 23:40 last edited by
The last poll that showed Harris up in Iowa, conflicted with Trump's internal polling. Trump said his internal polling showed him almost 10 up in Iowa.
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The last poll that showed Harris up in Iowa, conflicted with Trump's internal polling. Trump said his internal polling showed him almost 10 up in Iowa.
wrote on 5 Nov 2024, 00:27 last edited by -
wrote on 5 Nov 2024, 02:09 last edited by
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wrote on 5 Nov 2024, 02:18 last edited by
@Mik said in It’s starting:
LOL. I told Mrs. George the same thing about 2 hours ago.
I didn't, however, sing.
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wrote on 5 Nov 2024, 02:52 last edited by
Yer not a redhead either.
A man’s got to know his limitations.
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wrote on 5 Nov 2024, 06:10 last edited by
https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model
Last and final update: 12:30 a.m., Tuesday, November 5. Happy Election Day! At exactly midnight on Tuesday, we ran our simulation model for the final time in this election cycle. Out of 80,000 simulations, Kamala Harris won in 40,012 (50.015%) cases.
That's Nate Silver's "pencils down" final answer for who his model predict will win the 2024 presidential election.
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wrote on 5 Nov 2024, 06:29 last edited by
Seth's final analysis:
Link to video
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wrote on 5 Nov 2024, 10:14 last edited by
@George-K said in It’s starting:
@Jolly said in It’s starting:
The last poll that showed Harris up in Iowa
Is that the Selzer poll?
I believe so. See my post #186
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The last poll that showed Harris up in Iowa, conflicted with Trump's internal polling. Trump said his internal polling showed him almost 10 up in Iowa.
wrote on 5 Nov 2024, 10:17 last edited by@Jolly said in It’s starting:
lTrump said his internal polling showed him almost 10 up in Iowa.
He also said polls show 92% of people thought he won the debate.
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@Jolly said in It’s starting:
lTrump said his internal polling showed him almost 10 up in Iowa.
He also said polls show 92% of people thought he won the debate.
wrote on 5 Nov 2024, 10:18 last edited by@jon-nyc said in It’s starting:
@Jolly said in It’s starting:
lTrump said his internal polling showed him almost 10 up in Iowa.
He also said polls show 92% of people thought he won the debate.
People who want to last working for PResident Trump learn to tell him what he wants to hear.
Otherwise, they will not be long working for him.
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wrote on 5 Nov 2024, 10:19 last edited by
Such a good quality in a leader.
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wrote on 5 Nov 2024, 11:26 last edited by
Well, today we'll see...
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wrote on 5 Nov 2024, 11:34 last edited by
Today? Damn you’re optimistic.
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wrote on 5 Nov 2024, 11:46 last edited by
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wrote on 5 Nov 2024, 11:49 last edited by
Interesting. From Nate.
The Univision poll I referenced earlier, exclusively of Latino voters in Pennsylvania, showed her with a 64-30 lead, much better than she’s polled for most of the year in crosstabs of Hispanic voters and also better than Biden in 2020. And for its climactic closing event at Madison Square Garden, the Trump campaign decided to feature a comedian who called Puerto Rico a “floating island of garbage”. The Hispanic population in Pennsylvania has an outsized number of Puerto Ricans.
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wrote on 5 Nov 2024, 11:53 last edited by
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wrote on 5 Nov 2024, 11:56 last edited by
My gut still says Trump unless there’s a surge of women voters due to Dobbs.