Trends

[LuFins Dad]

45...
81 for the House.

There's something odd, though. The models still have the Dems maintaining control of the Senate 55 out of 100 times, but they also show the Republicans winning control of both houses to be more likely than Dems winning the Senate and Republicans winning the House.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/

WHO WILL CONTROL CONGRESS?
Republicans win both chambers
45 in 100
Republicans win the Senate
Democrats win the House
<1 in 100
Democrats win the Senate
Republicans win the House
36 in 100
Democrats win both chambers
19 in 100

[Jolly]

Undecideds are breaking towards GOP, I suppose.

[LuFins Dad]

@Jolly said in Trends:

Undecideds are breaking towards GOP, I suppose.

And some of the decided. The poll numbers among registered Democrats are going down…

[Jolly]

If you're putting up money, 62% as of right now...

https://electionbettingodds.com/

[LuFins Dad]

I’m chuckling because there seems to be an editorial difference of opinion at FiveThirtyEight. The number is still at 45-55 as there aren’t any polls coming through today, but the headline has changed three times from “Democrats are *Slightly * favored to win the Senate” to “It’s a Dead Heat for the Senate, then back to “Democrats are Slightly…” and now back to “Dead Heat”…

My guess is that somebody wants to keep giving the moral support to their side and Silver keeps overriding them and reminding them that the numbers are the numbers…

[LuFins Dad]

LOL

[LuFins Dad]

Aaaaaand it’s back to a Dead Heat

[LuFins Dad]

46, if anybody is still interested.

[George K]

@LuFins-Dad said in Trends:

46, if anybody is still interested.

Well the title of the thread is “Trends.” Let’s see how that shakes out in 14 days.

[Copper]

Pelosi: I ‘cannot believe anybody would vote for’ GOP in midterms

I know how she feels, in the other direction

https://nypost.com/2022/10/25/pelosi-says-she-cannot-believe-anyone-would-vote-republican/

[Horace]

Such a sad admission, to not be able to understand other human beings. One would expect the party of compassion to be able to do so easily, as their core competency. But as always, when someone proudly claims to not be able to understand other people, it’s not because they’re stupid or unsympathetic. It’s because they have an excess of virtue.

[LuFins Dad]

@George-K said in Trends:

@LuFins-Dad said in Trends:

46, if anybody is still interested.

Well the title of the thread is “Trends.” Let’s see how that shakes out in 14 days.

It’s still trending… 48.

[LuFins Dad]

New Hampshire is now in toss-up territory. 54 is a legitimate number for the Rs…

[George K]

@LuFins-Dad said in Trends:

New Hampshire is now in toss-up territory.

[Horace]

why are they italicizing those words? meant to remove doubt as to whether they're editorialized? Maybe the italics is meant to convey that they are defined labels for certain probability ranges.

[LuFins Dad]

@George-K said in Trends:

@LuFins-Dad said in Trends:

New Hampshire is now in toss-up territory.

Trends…

https://www.axios.com/2022/10/25/new-hampshire-senate-republicans-bolduc

Look at the last 4 polls for NH- https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

[taiwan_girl]

This post is deleted!

[George K]

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/elections-map-rcp-projection.html

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/?cid=rrpromo

[LuFins Dad]

You can play with the model here by picking the winners of some of the more contested states. If Budd wins in NC (where he is strongly favored), tge model favors Republicans 59-41. If Budd and Vance both win, it jumps to 67-33. These are races that Rams are projected to win…https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-flip-senate-house/

[taiwan_girl]

Well, at least 2016 taught us how accurate polls are. LOL