The Ukraine war thread

[Horace]

A generation or two of peace would be an unqualified good thing.

[Mik]

Depends on what happens upon Putin's demise. I see no indication things are likely to get much better.

[jon-nyc]

There was a cease fire in place October 6th February 23rd.

[Renauda]

@Mik

Nor do I. However….it is Russia. Nothing is ever what it seems.

[Mik]

That's the rub in a nation where you need to conceal any ideas contrary to the current regime. Who knows if someone waiting in the wings has in mind a peaceful, prosperous Russia.

[jon-nyc]

@Horace said in The Ukraine war thread:

"But we must start by recognising that returning to Ukraine's pre-2014 borders is an unrealistic objective.

"Chasing this illusionary goal will only prolong the war and cause more suffering."

That is what I hear from everybody who seems serious on the subject.

Smarter negotiators wouldn’t preemptively take options off the table before negotiations even start, such as this or NATO membership. He basically announced that negotiations will be over how much territory does Ukraine concede. For now.

[Horace]

@jon-nyc Non-serious options are of limited negotiating value.

[jon-nyc]

NATO membership, or its future possibility, would be a realistic leverage point.

[Renauda]

NATO membership sometime down the road must remain a possible option for Ukraine. Part of the security guarantee package for Ukraine ought to be ongoing assistance to Ukraine so that it may bring its armed forces into compliance with NATO standards. This process has already begun and the US must not let Russia put restrictions upon Ukraine in achieving this objective. The Kremlin will do everything possible in the coming negotiations to render Ukraine effectively defenceless and wholly subordinate to Moscow.

The Kremlin will demand much and offer little or nothing in return.

[Jolly]

@jon-nyc said in The Ukraine war thread:

NATO membership, or its future possibility, would be a realistic leverage point.

Yep, would leverage us right into a full European war.

[jon-nyc]

The idea would be to give it up for something, not nothing. You know, art of the deal?

[Renauda]

@Jolly said in The Ukraine war thread:

@jon-nyc said in The Ukraine war thread:

NATO membership, or its future possibility, would be a realistic leverage point.

Yep, would leverage us right into a full European war.

Indeed, Putin would have you think that.

Putin also knows that as it stands, NATO is Russia’s best guarantee that its western borderlands are not only secure but safe from attack. It must have come as a relief to Putin when Finland joined NATO as it enabled him immediately to begin a withdrawal of large contingent of ground forces stationed along the Karelian frontier.

But you probably either missed that fact altogether or chose not to take it into consideration as it does not fit your narrative. I suspect the latter.