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The New Coffee Room

  1. TNCR
  2. General Discussion
  3. The Ukraine war thread

The Ukraine war thread

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  • MikM Offline
    MikM Offline
    Mik
    wrote on last edited by Mik
    #2385

    That's the rub in a nation where you need to conceal any ideas contrary to the current regime. Who knows if someone waiting in the wings has in mind a peaceful, prosperous Russia.

    “I am fond of pigs. Dogs look up to us. Cats look down on us. Pigs treat us as equals.” ~Winston S. Churchill

    1 Reply Last reply
    • HoraceH Horace

      "But we must start by recognising that returning to Ukraine's pre-2014 borders is an unrealistic objective.

      "Chasing this illusionary goal will only prolong the war and cause more suffering."

      That is what I hear from everybody who seems serious on the subject.

      jon-nycJ Online
      jon-nycJ Online
      jon-nyc
      wrote on last edited by jon-nyc
      #2386

      @Horace said in The Ukraine war thread:

      "But we must start by recognising that returning to Ukraine's pre-2014 borders is an unrealistic objective.

      "Chasing this illusionary goal will only prolong the war and cause more suffering."

      That is what I hear from everybody who seems serious on the subject.

      Smarter negotiators wouldn’t preemptively take options off the table before negotiations even start, such as this or NATO membership. He basically announced that negotiations will be over how much territory does Ukraine concede. For now.

      Only non-witches get due process.

      • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
      HoraceH 1 Reply Last reply
      • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

        @Horace said in The Ukraine war thread:

        "But we must start by recognising that returning to Ukraine's pre-2014 borders is an unrealistic objective.

        "Chasing this illusionary goal will only prolong the war and cause more suffering."

        That is what I hear from everybody who seems serious on the subject.

        Smarter negotiators wouldn’t preemptively take options off the table before negotiations even start, such as this or NATO membership. He basically announced that negotiations will be over how much territory does Ukraine concede. For now.

        HoraceH Offline
        HoraceH Offline
        Horace
        wrote on last edited by
        #2387

        @jon-nyc Non-serious options are of limited negotiating value.

        Education is extremely important.

        1 Reply Last reply
        • jon-nycJ Online
          jon-nycJ Online
          jon-nyc
          wrote on last edited by jon-nyc
          #2388

          NATO membership, or its future possibility, would be a realistic leverage point.

          Only non-witches get due process.

          • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
          JollyJ 2 Replies Last reply
          • RenaudaR Offline
            RenaudaR Offline
            Renauda
            wrote on last edited by
            #2389

            NATO membership sometime down the road must remain a possible option for Ukraine. Part of the security guarantee package for Ukraine ought to be ongoing assistance to Ukraine so that it may bring its armed forces into compliance with NATO standards. This process has already begun and the US must not let Russia put restrictions upon Ukraine in achieving this objective. The Kremlin will do everything possible in the coming negotiations to render Ukraine effectively defenceless and wholly subordinate to Moscow.

            The Kremlin will demand much and offer little or nothing in return.

            Elbows up!

            1 Reply Last reply
            • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

              NATO membership, or its future possibility, would be a realistic leverage point.

              JollyJ Offline
              JollyJ Offline
              Jolly
              wrote on last edited by
              #2390

              @jon-nyc said in The Ukraine war thread:

              NATO membership, or its future possibility, would be a realistic leverage point.

              Yep, would leverage us right into a full European war.

              RenaudaR 1 Reply Last reply
              • jon-nycJ Online
                jon-nycJ Online
                jon-nyc
                wrote on last edited by
                #2391

                The idea would be to give it up for something, not nothing. You know, art of the deal?

                Only non-witches get due process.

                • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
                1 Reply Last reply
                • JollyJ Jolly

                  @jon-nyc said in The Ukraine war thread:

                  NATO membership, or its future possibility, would be a realistic leverage point.

                  Yep, would leverage us right into a full European war.

                  RenaudaR Offline
                  RenaudaR Offline
                  Renauda
                  wrote on last edited by Renauda
                  #2392

                  @Jolly said in The Ukraine war thread:

                  @jon-nyc said in The Ukraine war thread:

                  NATO membership, or its future possibility, would be a realistic leverage point.

                  Yep, would leverage us right into a full European war.

                  Indeed, Putin would have you think that.

                  Putin also knows that as it stands, NATO is Russia’s best guarantee that its western borderlands are not only secure but safe from attack. It must have come as a relief to Putin when Finland joined NATO as it enabled him immediately to begin a withdrawal of a large contingent of ground forces stationed along the Karelian frontier.

                  But you probably either missed that fact altogether or chose not to take it into consideration as it does not fit your narrative. I suspect the latter.

                  Elbows up!

                  1 Reply Last reply
                  • jon-nycJ Online
                    jon-nycJ Online
                    jon-nyc
                    wrote on last edited by
                    #2393

                    Only non-witches get due process.

                    • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
                    1 Reply Last reply
                    • RenaudaR Offline
                      RenaudaR Offline
                      Renauda
                      wrote on last edited by Renauda
                      #2394

                      Putin Won’t Settle for Less than a Betrayal of Ukraine

                      But there would have to be an agreement on ending the war in Ukraine, or else the summit would fail. What would such an agreement look like? Putin’s demands are clear, and they would require significant concessions from the United States — concessions that, if granted, would leave Ukraine adrift and at Russia’s mercy.

                      The first item on Putin’s wish list would be the recognition (including by Ukraine) of Russia’s territorial gains. He would insist on keeping all the territories Russia currently occupies, as well as those he has formally annexed but not yet fully controls. This is a prospect Zelensky has repeatedly rejected. It goes without saying that Ukraine would be asked to withdraw from Kursk, which it invaded, to dubious benefit, some months ago.

                      Equally important would be Ukraine’s formal, permanent neutrality. This was a major sticking point during the Istanbul negotiations in the spring of 2022. At the time, Ukraine sought real security guarantees to prevent future Russian aggression. Russia, however, insisted on a mechanism that would allow it to be consulted — and potentially veto — any Ukrainian request for external assistance.

                      Putin would likely agree only to meaningless guarantees — ones that could not be effectively invoked if Russia were to launch another attack. As in Istanbul, he would want to leave Russia and its potential partners (like China and Belarus) in a position to veto any Ukrainian request for external assistance. For that reason, it is very doubtful that Putin would ever agree to a European peacekeeping contingent to enforce the agreement.

                      Would Trump agree to such a framework? If he did, it would amount to a betrayal of Ukraine and would leave the country defenseless against future aggression.

                      https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/02/13/putin-wont-settle-for-less-than-a-us-betrayal-of-ukraine-a87994

                      Elbows up!

                      jon-nycJ 1 Reply Last reply
                      • MikM Offline
                        MikM Offline
                        Mik
                        wrote on last edited by
                        #2395

                        Which is all he really wants - time to strengthen the economy and restore the military.

                        “I am fond of pigs. Dogs look up to us. Cats look down on us. Pigs treat us as equals.” ~Winston S. Churchill

                        1 Reply Last reply
                        • RenaudaR Renauda

                          Putin Won’t Settle for Less than a Betrayal of Ukraine

                          But there would have to be an agreement on ending the war in Ukraine, or else the summit would fail. What would such an agreement look like? Putin’s demands are clear, and they would require significant concessions from the United States — concessions that, if granted, would leave Ukraine adrift and at Russia’s mercy.

                          The first item on Putin’s wish list would be the recognition (including by Ukraine) of Russia’s territorial gains. He would insist on keeping all the territories Russia currently occupies, as well as those he has formally annexed but not yet fully controls. This is a prospect Zelensky has repeatedly rejected. It goes without saying that Ukraine would be asked to withdraw from Kursk, which it invaded, to dubious benefit, some months ago.

                          Equally important would be Ukraine’s formal, permanent neutrality. This was a major sticking point during the Istanbul negotiations in the spring of 2022. At the time, Ukraine sought real security guarantees to prevent future Russian aggression. Russia, however, insisted on a mechanism that would allow it to be consulted — and potentially veto — any Ukrainian request for external assistance.

                          Putin would likely agree only to meaningless guarantees — ones that could not be effectively invoked if Russia were to launch another attack. As in Istanbul, he would want to leave Russia and its potential partners (like China and Belarus) in a position to veto any Ukrainian request for external assistance. For that reason, it is very doubtful that Putin would ever agree to a European peacekeeping contingent to enforce the agreement.

                          Would Trump agree to such a framework? If he did, it would amount to a betrayal of Ukraine and would leave the country defenseless against future aggression.

                          https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/02/13/putin-wont-settle-for-less-than-a-us-betrayal-of-ukraine-a87994

                          jon-nycJ Online
                          jon-nycJ Online
                          jon-nyc
                          wrote on last edited by
                          #2396

                          @Renauda said in The Ukraine war thread:

                          Putin Won’t Settle for Less than a Betrayal of Ukraine

                          Seems like he got that this week.

                          Only non-witches get due process.

                          • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
                          1 Reply Last reply
                          • RenaudaR Offline
                            RenaudaR Offline
                            Renauda
                            wrote on last edited by Renauda
                            #2397

                            @jon-nyc

                            Am sure there are more goodies and rewards in the basket for Putin.

                            Apparently Russia is the aggrieved victim in this war because Ukraine had the audacity to defend itself when attacked.

                            Elbows up!

                            1 Reply Last reply
                            • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

                              NATO membership, or its future possibility, would be a realistic leverage point.

                              JollyJ Offline
                              JollyJ Offline
                              Jolly
                              wrote on last edited by
                              #2398
                              This post is deleted!
                              1 Reply Last reply
                              • W Do not disturb
                                W Do not disturb
                                Wim
                                wrote on last edited by
                                #2399

                                I don't know Wicker, but he's spot on:

                                https://www.politico.eu/article/senate-armed-services-chair-roger-wicker-pete-hegseth-war-in-ukraine-russia/

                                1 Reply Last reply
                                • RenaudaR Offline
                                  RenaudaR Offline
                                  Renauda
                                  wrote on last edited by Renauda
                                  #2400

                                  Russian picks its negotiating team:

                                  https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/02/14/putin-taps-spy-chief-veteran-diplomat-and-us-sanctioned-financier-for-ukraine-peace-talks-bloomberg-a88019

                                  Naryshkin was the FSB hood who received a public bollocking from Putin three years ago when it became painfully obvious the Ukrainians were not greeting the invading Russian troops with bread and salt offerings.

                                  Elbows up!

                                  1 Reply Last reply
                                  • MikM Offline
                                    MikM Offline
                                    Mik
                                    wrote on last edited by
                                    #2401

                                    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukraine-rare-earth-deal-trump-s-bold-proposal-hits-a-snag/ar-AA1z6X7S

                                    “I am fond of pigs. Dogs look up to us. Cats look down on us. Pigs treat us as equals.” ~Winston S. Churchill

                                    1 Reply Last reply
                                    • RenaudaR Offline
                                      RenaudaR Offline
                                      Renauda
                                      wrote on last edited by Renauda
                                      #2402

                                      The rare earths are primarily concentrated in the Donbas region under Russian control. However there are also deposits in the annexed but as yet unoccupied regions of Zaporizhie. Yeah, it’s a snag alright.

                                      Map:

                                      https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/aF3c3/2/

                                      More information on topic:

                                      https://www.politico.eu/article/us-donald-trump-asks-zelenskyy-half-ukraine-rare-minerals-military-support/

                                      Elbows up!

                                      1 Reply Last reply
                                      • MikM Offline
                                        MikM Offline
                                        Mik
                                        wrote on last edited by
                                        #2403

                                        So the question facing Zelensky seems to be do you want to be a vassal state of Russia, the US or both? Ugly.

                                        “I am fond of pigs. Dogs look up to us. Cats look down on us. Pigs treat us as equals.” ~Winston S. Churchill

                                        1 Reply Last reply
                                        • RenaudaR Offline
                                          RenaudaR Offline
                                          Renauda
                                          wrote on last edited by
                                          #2404

                                          I doubt the deal, if it were to go through, would make it a vassal state of the US. Rather, how would such an arrangement affect Ukraine’s aspirations to join the EU down the road. The devil is in details of the US proposal. At this stage it is not clear what the US wants or how it will get Putin out of the occupied regions where the rare earths are located.

                                          Elbows up!

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