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The New Coffee Room

  1. TNCR
  2. General Discussion
  3. The Ukraine war thread

The Ukraine war thread

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  • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

    NATO membership, or its future possibility, would be a realistic leverage point.

    JollyJ Offline
    JollyJ Offline
    Jolly
    wrote on last edited by
    #2390

    @jon-nyc said in The Ukraine war thread:

    NATO membership, or its future possibility, would be a realistic leverage point.

    Yep, would leverage us right into a full European war.

    RenaudaR 1 Reply Last reply
    • jon-nycJ Offline
      jon-nycJ Offline
      jon-nyc
      wrote on last edited by
      #2391

      The idea would be to give it up for something, not nothing. You know, art of the deal?

      You were warned.

      1 Reply Last reply
      • JollyJ Jolly

        @jon-nyc said in The Ukraine war thread:

        NATO membership, or its future possibility, would be a realistic leverage point.

        Yep, would leverage us right into a full European war.

        RenaudaR Offline
        RenaudaR Offline
        Renauda
        wrote on last edited by Renauda
        #2392

        @Jolly said in The Ukraine war thread:

        @jon-nyc said in The Ukraine war thread:

        NATO membership, or its future possibility, would be a realistic leverage point.

        Yep, would leverage us right into a full European war.

        Indeed, Putin would have you think that.

        Putin also knows that as it stands, NATO is Russia’s best guarantee that its western borderlands are not only secure but safe from attack. It must have come as a relief to Putin when Finland joined NATO as it enabled him immediately to begin a withdrawal of a large contingent of ground forces stationed along the Karelian frontier.

        But you probably either missed that fact altogether or chose not to take it into consideration as it does not fit your narrative. I suspect the latter.

        Elbows up!

        1 Reply Last reply
        • jon-nycJ Offline
          jon-nycJ Offline
          jon-nyc
          wrote on last edited by
          #2393

          You were warned.

          1 Reply Last reply
          • RenaudaR Offline
            RenaudaR Offline
            Renauda
            wrote on last edited by Renauda
            #2394

            Putin Won’t Settle for Less than a Betrayal of Ukraine

            But there would have to be an agreement on ending the war in Ukraine, or else the summit would fail. What would such an agreement look like? Putin’s demands are clear, and they would require significant concessions from the United States — concessions that, if granted, would leave Ukraine adrift and at Russia’s mercy.

            The first item on Putin’s wish list would be the recognition (including by Ukraine) of Russia’s territorial gains. He would insist on keeping all the territories Russia currently occupies, as well as those he has formally annexed but not yet fully controls. This is a prospect Zelensky has repeatedly rejected. It goes without saying that Ukraine would be asked to withdraw from Kursk, which it invaded, to dubious benefit, some months ago.

            Equally important would be Ukraine’s formal, permanent neutrality. This was a major sticking point during the Istanbul negotiations in the spring of 2022. At the time, Ukraine sought real security guarantees to prevent future Russian aggression. Russia, however, insisted on a mechanism that would allow it to be consulted — and potentially veto — any Ukrainian request for external assistance.

            Putin would likely agree only to meaningless guarantees — ones that could not be effectively invoked if Russia were to launch another attack. As in Istanbul, he would want to leave Russia and its potential partners (like China and Belarus) in a position to veto any Ukrainian request for external assistance. For that reason, it is very doubtful that Putin would ever agree to a European peacekeeping contingent to enforce the agreement.

            Would Trump agree to such a framework? If he did, it would amount to a betrayal of Ukraine and would leave the country defenseless against future aggression.

            https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/02/13/putin-wont-settle-for-less-than-a-us-betrayal-of-ukraine-a87994

            Elbows up!

            jon-nycJ 1 Reply Last reply
            • MikM Offline
              MikM Offline
              Mik
              wrote on last edited by
              #2395

              Which is all he really wants - time to strengthen the economy and restore the military.

              “I am fond of pigs. Dogs look up to us. Cats look down on us. Pigs treat us as equals.” ~Winston S. Churchill

              1 Reply Last reply
              • RenaudaR Renauda

                Putin Won’t Settle for Less than a Betrayal of Ukraine

                But there would have to be an agreement on ending the war in Ukraine, or else the summit would fail. What would such an agreement look like? Putin’s demands are clear, and they would require significant concessions from the United States — concessions that, if granted, would leave Ukraine adrift and at Russia’s mercy.

                The first item on Putin’s wish list would be the recognition (including by Ukraine) of Russia’s territorial gains. He would insist on keeping all the territories Russia currently occupies, as well as those he has formally annexed but not yet fully controls. This is a prospect Zelensky has repeatedly rejected. It goes without saying that Ukraine would be asked to withdraw from Kursk, which it invaded, to dubious benefit, some months ago.

                Equally important would be Ukraine’s formal, permanent neutrality. This was a major sticking point during the Istanbul negotiations in the spring of 2022. At the time, Ukraine sought real security guarantees to prevent future Russian aggression. Russia, however, insisted on a mechanism that would allow it to be consulted — and potentially veto — any Ukrainian request for external assistance.

                Putin would likely agree only to meaningless guarantees — ones that could not be effectively invoked if Russia were to launch another attack. As in Istanbul, he would want to leave Russia and its potential partners (like China and Belarus) in a position to veto any Ukrainian request for external assistance. For that reason, it is very doubtful that Putin would ever agree to a European peacekeeping contingent to enforce the agreement.

                Would Trump agree to such a framework? If he did, it would amount to a betrayal of Ukraine and would leave the country defenseless against future aggression.

                https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/02/13/putin-wont-settle-for-less-than-a-us-betrayal-of-ukraine-a87994

                jon-nycJ Offline
                jon-nycJ Offline
                jon-nyc
                wrote on last edited by
                #2396

                @Renauda said in The Ukraine war thread:

                Putin Won’t Settle for Less than a Betrayal of Ukraine

                Seems like he got that this week.

                You were warned.

                1 Reply Last reply
                • RenaudaR Offline
                  RenaudaR Offline
                  Renauda
                  wrote on last edited by Renauda
                  #2397

                  @jon-nyc

                  Am sure there are more goodies and rewards in the basket for Putin.

                  Apparently Russia is the aggrieved victim in this war because Ukraine had the audacity to defend itself when attacked.

                  Elbows up!

                  1 Reply Last reply
                  • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

                    NATO membership, or its future possibility, would be a realistic leverage point.

                    JollyJ Offline
                    JollyJ Offline
                    Jolly
                    wrote on last edited by
                    #2398
                    This post is deleted!
                    1 Reply Last reply
                    • W Offline
                      W Offline
                      Wim
                      wrote on last edited by
                      #2399

                      I don't know Wicker, but he's spot on:

                      https://www.politico.eu/article/senate-armed-services-chair-roger-wicker-pete-hegseth-war-in-ukraine-russia/

                      1 Reply Last reply
                      • RenaudaR Offline
                        RenaudaR Offline
                        Renauda
                        wrote on last edited by Renauda
                        #2400

                        Russian picks its negotiating team:

                        https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/02/14/putin-taps-spy-chief-veteran-diplomat-and-us-sanctioned-financier-for-ukraine-peace-talks-bloomberg-a88019

                        Naryshkin was the FSB hood who received a public bollocking from Putin three years ago when it became painfully obvious the Ukrainians were not greeting the invading Russian troops with bread and salt offerings.

                        Elbows up!

                        1 Reply Last reply
                        • MikM Offline
                          MikM Offline
                          Mik
                          wrote on last edited by
                          #2401

                          https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukraine-rare-earth-deal-trump-s-bold-proposal-hits-a-snag/ar-AA1z6X7S

                          “I am fond of pigs. Dogs look up to us. Cats look down on us. Pigs treat us as equals.” ~Winston S. Churchill

                          1 Reply Last reply
                          • RenaudaR Offline
                            RenaudaR Offline
                            Renauda
                            wrote on last edited by Renauda
                            #2402

                            The rare earths are primarily concentrated in the Donbas region under Russian control. However there are also deposits in the annexed but as yet unoccupied regions of Zaporizhie. Yeah, it’s a snag alright.

                            Map:

                            https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/aF3c3/2/

                            More information on topic:

                            https://www.politico.eu/article/us-donald-trump-asks-zelenskyy-half-ukraine-rare-minerals-military-support/

                            Elbows up!

                            1 Reply Last reply
                            • MikM Offline
                              MikM Offline
                              Mik
                              wrote on last edited by
                              #2403

                              So the question facing Zelensky seems to be do you want to be a vassal state of Russia, the US or both? Ugly.

                              “I am fond of pigs. Dogs look up to us. Cats look down on us. Pigs treat us as equals.” ~Winston S. Churchill

                              1 Reply Last reply
                              • RenaudaR Offline
                                RenaudaR Offline
                                Renauda
                                wrote on last edited by
                                #2404

                                I doubt the deal, if it were to go through, would make it a vassal state of the US. Rather, how would such an arrangement affect Ukraine’s aspirations to join the EU down the road. The devil is in details of the US proposal. At this stage it is not clear what the US wants or how it will get Putin out of the occupied regions where the rare earths are located.

                                Elbows up!

                                1 Reply Last reply
                                • jon-nycJ Offline
                                  jon-nycJ Offline
                                  jon-nyc
                                  wrote on last edited by jon-nyc
                                  #2405

                                  It doesn’t even offer anything in return. It’s ’you’re desperate, give us half your stuff’. Embarrassing to be an American these days.

                                  You were warned.

                                  1 Reply Last reply
                                  • MikM Offline
                                    MikM Offline
                                    Mik
                                    wrote on last edited by
                                    #2406

                                    US troops on Ukrainian soil is not nothing. It's very chastening of Russian reinvasion ideas.

                                    “I am fond of pigs. Dogs look up to us. Cats look down on us. Pigs treat us as equals.” ~Winston S. Churchill

                                    RenaudaR 1 Reply Last reply
                                    • MikM Mik

                                      US troops on Ukrainian soil is not nothing. It's very chastening of Russian reinvasion ideas.

                                      RenaudaR Offline
                                      RenaudaR Offline
                                      Renauda
                                      wrote on last edited by Renauda
                                      #2407

                                      @Mik

                                      True enough however if their mission is only to safeguard the mining operations how credible a deterrent to any future Russian aggression is that?

                                      Until the details of any proposal are made public, it is all pure speculation. My suspicion at this point is that the US proposal presented would essentially assign the US unfettered sovereignty over the land, subsurface mineral rights and all infrastructure within the boundaries of any concessions. There could be as well provisions for free transportation corridors through Ukrainian territory to ports and border crossings. Effectively, a conglomerate of Cold War era American sector West Berlins but outside the scope of the NATO treaty.

                                      Elbows up!

                                      1 Reply Last reply
                                      • JollyJ Offline
                                        JollyJ Offline
                                        Jolly
                                        wrote on last edited by
                                        #2408

                                        Jon,

                                        When will your son be ready to go to a service academy?

                                        1 Reply Last reply
                                        • jon-nycJ Offline
                                          jon-nycJ Offline
                                          jon-nyc
                                          wrote on last edited by
                                          #2409

                                          Kasparov:

                                          What is Trump asking from Putin? So far he has a list of gifts for Russia and a list of demands for Ukraine.

                                          You were warned.

                                          1 Reply Last reply
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