The Ukraine war thread

[Jolly]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/feb/07/russia-withdraws-north-korea-troops-kursk-deaths-ukraine-war

[Renauda]

According to Kyiv, the Norks are back again for more punishment:

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Friday that North Korean troops were back on the front line in Russia's Kursk region, after reports Moscow had withdrawn them due to heavy losses.

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/02/07/zelensky-says-north-korean-troops-back-on-russian-front-line-a87915

[Mik]

Less mouths for Kim to feed. Not that he feeds them...

[Renauda]

Hegseth begins laying out US position to bring about an armistice:

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cy0pz3er37jo

[Horace]

"But we must start by recognising that returning to Ukraine's pre-2014 borders is an unrealistic objective.

"Chasing this illusionary goal will only prolong the war and cause more suffering."

That is what I hear from everybody who seems serious on the subject.

[Renauda]

@Horace

You are correct. The past year and a half or so of attrition has erased any illusions of a return to 2014 borders. Likewise NATO membership in the foreseeable future.

The challenge in the armistice negotiations will be limiting Putin to what he already has occupied militarily and not a yard more. Likewise, the question of what Russia will demand as reparations from Ukraine and the West.

Then the security guarantees for Ukraine. There can be no illusions on the part of the US that Russia will negotiate or agree to anything in good faith.

[Mik]

I'm afraid the best we can do is stop the fighting. But that only kicks the can down the road.

[Horace]

A generation or two of peace would be an unqualified good thing.

[Mik]

Depends on what happens upon Putin's demise. I see no indication things are likely to get much better.

[jon-nyc]

There was a cease fire in place October 6th February 23rd.

[Renauda]

@Mik

Nor do I. However….it is Russia. Nothing is ever what it seems.

[Mik]

That's the rub in a nation where you need to conceal any ideas contrary to the current regime. Who knows if someone waiting in the wings has in mind a peaceful, prosperous Russia.

[jon-nyc]

@Horace said in The Ukraine war thread:

"But we must start by recognising that returning to Ukraine's pre-2014 borders is an unrealistic objective.

"Chasing this illusionary goal will only prolong the war and cause more suffering."

That is what I hear from everybody who seems serious on the subject.

Smarter negotiators wouldn’t preemptively take options off the table before negotiations even start, such as this or NATO membership. He basically announced that negotiations will be over how much territory does Ukraine concede. For now.

[Horace]

@jon-nyc Non-serious options are of limited negotiating value.

[jon-nyc]

NATO membership, or its future possibility, would be a realistic leverage point.

[Renauda]

NATO membership sometime down the road must remain a possible option for Ukraine. Part of the security guarantee package for Ukraine ought to be ongoing assistance to Ukraine so that it may bring its armed forces into compliance with NATO standards. This process has already begun and the US must not let Russia put restrictions upon Ukraine in achieving this objective. The Kremlin will do everything possible in the coming negotiations to render Ukraine effectively defenceless and wholly subordinate to Moscow.

The Kremlin will demand much and offer little or nothing in return.

[Jolly]

@jon-nyc said in The Ukraine war thread:

NATO membership, or its future possibility, would be a realistic leverage point.

Yep, would leverage us right into a full European war.