The Ukraine war thread
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Just watched it. Rational and clear eyed.
The question in my mind is how badly does Putin want out of his own tar baby. That more than anything will drive how all this turns out.
The other factor is the Ukrainian population’s ability to continue mustering personnel. That I have no feel for.
@Mik said in The Ukraine war thread:
Just watched it. Rational and clear eyed.
The question in my mind is how badly does Putin want out of his own tar baby. That more than anything will drive how all this turns out.
The other factor is the Ukrainian population’s ability to continue mustering personnel. That I have no feel for.
Ukraine is staggering. They lowered their draft age from 27 to 25 about a year ago and stepped up recruitment efforts in the 18-24 range. They had around 8.7M draft age men when Russia invaded, now they have less than 5M ( due both to combat injuries and males who have fled the country). Ukraine has around 65K women volunteers in their armed services.
Russia has a larger population from which to draw. In the last twelve months, some sources state they've drafted about 280,000 men. They are also recruiting soldiers in occupied Ukraine. Ukraine claims Russia has lost 833,000 soldiers in the war.
Currently, it's February and conditions are not good for big offensive maneuvers, but when it dries up in the spring, I'm predicting a sizeable Russian push.
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Confidently rolling toward Ukrainian lines in western Russia’s Kursk Oblast in up-armored vehicles brazenly flying the flag of the defunct Soviet Union, an assault group from the Russian 155th Naval Infantry Brigade paraded right into a minefield laid by the Ukrainian 47th Mechanized Brigade.
Mines blew up some of the Russian vehicles. Drones struck others and also hounded the dismounted infantry.One shell-shocked Russian crewman bailed out of his damaged vehicle, trudged a few steps through the snow, fell flat onto his back—and then exploded as a drone slammed into him.
***NSFW content***
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Right now am listening to Trump talk about Ukraine in a Q & A presser from his Florida palace.
Trump is laying the bulk of the blame on Kyiv for this war, among other exaggerations, deflections and distortions. I feel very sorry for Rubio, his boss’s inability to show any statesmanship or hold his tongue is making a very difficult task into a near to impossible task.
Normally I would ask for someone to pass the barf bag. But this time I think need the whole porcelain bowl.
Edit (2 hours later):
What Trump said:
"I'm very disappointed, I hear that they're upset about not having a seat," Trump told reporters when asked what he would say to Ukrainians who feel "betrayed."
"Today I heard, oh, well, we weren't invited. Well, you've been there for three years...You should have never started it. You could have made a deal," he said.
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Right now am listening to Trump talk about Ukraine in a Q & A presser from his Florida palace.
Trump is laying the bulk of the blame on Kyiv for this war, among other exaggerations, deflections and distortions. I feel very sorry for Rubio, his boss’s inability to show any statesmanship or hold his tongue is making a very difficult task into a near to impossible task.
Normally I would ask for someone to pass the barf bag. But this time I think need the whole porcelain bowl.
Edit (2 hours later):
What Trump said:
"I'm very disappointed, I hear that they're upset about not having a seat," Trump told reporters when asked what he would say to Ukrainians who feel "betrayed."
"Today I heard, oh, well, we weren't invited. Well, you've been there for three years...You should have never started it. You could have made a deal," he said.
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I may not have heard what Renauda heard, but I heard a lot of blaming of Biden rather than Ukraine.
The blame Biden crap, I file under deflections and squelch. Just like Beauregard’s coffee and doughnut shop gossip around here.
You didn’t hear what Trumpigula said about Ukraine because you either weren’t listening or you didn’t want to hear it. To be honest I didn’t want to hear it either but I did and so did everyone else who was paying attention.
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Word on the street is that Zelensky wouldn't even win an election in Ukraine right now.
https://news.gallup.com/poll/653495/half-ukrainians-quick-negotiated-end-war.aspx
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I normally don’t look to CNN (or for that matter, any US news outlet) but the following clip is too good to pass up. At least two Republican senators haven’t drunk the Putin Kool-Aide:
https://www.cnn.com/2025/02/18/politics/video/roger-wicker-john-kennedy-trump-putin-digvid
Word on the street is that Zelensky wouldn't even win an election in Ukraine right now.
https://news.gallup.com/poll/653495/half-ukrainians-quick-negotiated-end-war.aspx
Surprised you would even give credence to a “street” poll under the conditions a country like Ukraine is currently facing. Must be for the sake of convenience or you actually believe Trump’s bald faced lies on the matter. On the other hand, you might get more favourable results if the poll were taken in Moscow.
Anyways, let’s just wait a few more weeks to see how brutally Trump continues to rubbish and belittle the Ukrainian nation and their President. Then, by all means, let Gallup do another poll. This one you posted is nothing more than old hat from last autumn.
Ukraine’s dilemma at this moment is not too far removed from Poland in August 1939:
“With the Germans, we risk losing our freedom,” said Polish commander-in-chief Edward Rydz-Smigly, “with the Russians our soul.”
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The idea that Zelensky is the problem here seems completely bogus.
WTF are the Republicans thinking?
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I remain skeptical of the Western attitude of fierce principled support of Ukraine continuing to fight a war it cannot win, and which it is increasingly sick of fighting. I see no clear list of attainable goals for Ukraine that Trump is thwarting with his negotiations. We'll see where the negotiations go, but I am hard pressed to consider them a loss for Ukraine as of now. Sometimes both parties in a fight are happy when they are pulled apart. I think it is interesting that Zelensky's support in Ukraine is waning, along with support for the war in general.
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Nothing wrong with healthy dose of scepticism so long as it is accurately informed and not the result of blind ignorance out of personal choice.
I am sceptical about the motives of tyrants and demogogues and the sloppy thinkers who continually cheerlead and apologize for their repugnant and threatening behaviour on the world stage.
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Nothing wrong with healthy dose of scepticism so long as it is accurately informed and not the result of blind ignorance out of personal choice.
I am sceptical about the motives of tyrants and demogogues and the sloppy thinkers who continually cheerlead and apologize for their repugnant and threatening behaviour on the world stage.
@Renauda said in The Ukraine war thread:
Nothing wrong with healthy dose of scepticism so long as it is accurately informed and not the result of blind ignorance out of personal choice.
I don't feel at all ignorant about my skepticism of armchair westerners and their tribalized support for the war, and opposition to Trump's methods of trying to end it.
I may be ignorant about the level of support the war currently enjoys from the Ukrainians bearing the brunt of it, and if so I'm happy to be proven wrong. That proof will not take the form of hand waves about principles of freedom.
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Then tell “your man in the White House”
to stop his hand waving and Kremlin inspired bullshit talk about holding presidential elections in Ukraine:Responding to Trump’s demand that Ukraine hold elections before any peace deal could be reached with Russia, Zelensky refuted Trump’s claim that his approval rate among Ukrainians stood at just 4% and pointed to a recent survey that revealed some 57% of Ukrainians approved of his leadership.
“If somebody wants to replace me right now, it won’t work,” Zelensky told reporters, adding that the 4% approval rate was just another example of Russian disinformation, something Ukrainians already knew all about. Just 1% of the Ukrainian population was in favour of making concessions to Moscow, Zelensky continued, adding that “nobody in Ukraine believes Putin”.
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Does anyone need reminding that the Russian President is a murderer who ought to be serving a life sentence or facing execution for his numerous deadly crimes both national and international.
Of course now he's invaded a foreign country and killed hundreds of thousands he may assume the grand title of conqueror.
Over the last two decades he has shown himself to be a bully, tyrant, liar, and never to be trusted.
Someone needs to tell Trump a bit of factual history and then explain why Russia is our immediate threat, along with N. Korea and Iran.
China of course is our long term threat. -
