The Ukraine war thread
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Just watched it. Rational and clear eyed.
The question in my mind is how badly does Putin want out of his own tar baby. That more than anything will drive how all this turns out.
The other factor is the Ukrainian population’s ability to continue mustering personnel. That I have no feel for.
“I am fond of pigs. Dogs look up to us. Cats look down on us. Pigs treat us as equals.” ~Winston S. Churchill
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As long as Ukraine is in a state of martial law there will no presidential election. That much is written into Ukraine’s constitution. Any talk of it by either Moscow or Washington is unwarranted grandstanding at this time.
All today’s meeting accomplished was an agreement to reestablish diplomatic channels to facilitate the negotiation process. Along with the standard Kremlin line of bald face lies and distortions, I really didn’t get much out of Lavrov’s presser other than Russia’s demands of all parties remain unmitigated and every bit as harsh and punitive as they were three years ago. Perhaps even harsher. Russia continues to insist that it is the sole victim in this war.
Rubio is right, this is going to be a long and hard negotiation. It could break down at any point.
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I dont understand why at least Ukraine would not be involved in the initial negotiations. Maybe not face to face with Russia at the start, but they should be there.
Also think that Europe should be also. From a money standpoint, I believe that they have contributed both more money and materials to Ukraine.
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I dont understand why at least Ukraine would not be involved in the initial negotiations. Maybe not face to face with Russia at the start, but they should be there.
Also think that Europe should be also. From a money standpoint, I believe that they have contributed both more money and materials to Ukraine.
At this point neither the US or Russia have ambassadors or a full working compliment in their respective embassies. Normal diplomatic channels between the two have been pretty much severed for the last three years. The US and Russia are therefore just trying to set up a diplomatic framework then to proceed towards a negotiation process. Once that process has been determined then I should think Ukraine will become a party to the negotiations.
Russia remains determined to receive Ukraine’s total capitulation. It stop at nothing to get Washington to agree to Russia’s absolute terms throughout the process.
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Just watched it. Rational and clear eyed.
The question in my mind is how badly does Putin want out of his own tar baby. That more than anything will drive how all this turns out.
The other factor is the Ukrainian population’s ability to continue mustering personnel. That I have no feel for.
@Mik said in The Ukraine war thread:
Just watched it. Rational and clear eyed.
The question in my mind is how badly does Putin want out of his own tar baby. That more than anything will drive how all this turns out.
The other factor is the Ukrainian population’s ability to continue mustering personnel. That I have no feel for.
Ukraine is staggering. They lowered their draft age from 27 to 25 about a year ago and stepped up recruitment efforts in the 18-24 range. They had around 8.7M draft age men when Russia invaded, now they have less than 5M ( due both to combat injuries and males who have fled the country). Ukraine has around 65K women volunteers in their armed services.
Russia has a larger population from which to draw. In the last twelve months, some sources state they've drafted about 280,000 men. They are also recruiting soldiers in occupied Ukraine. Ukraine claims Russia has lost 833,000 soldiers in the war.
Currently, it's February and conditions are not good for big offensive maneuvers, but when it dries up in the spring, I'm predicting a sizeable Russian push.
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Confidently rolling toward Ukrainian lines in western Russia’s Kursk Oblast in up-armored vehicles brazenly flying the flag of the defunct Soviet Union, an assault group from the Russian 155th Naval Infantry Brigade paraded right into a minefield laid by the Ukrainian 47th Mechanized Brigade.
Mines blew up some of the Russian vehicles. Drones struck others and also hounded the dismounted infantry.One shell-shocked Russian crewman bailed out of his damaged vehicle, trudged a few steps through the snow, fell flat onto his back—and then exploded as a drone slammed into him.
***NSFW content***
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Right now am listening to Trump talk about Ukraine in a Q & A presser from his Florida palace.
Trump is laying the bulk of the blame on Kyiv for this war, among other exaggerations, deflections and distortions. I feel very sorry for Rubio, his boss’s inability to show any statesmanship or hold his tongue is making a very difficult task into a near to impossible task.
Normally I would ask for someone to pass the barf bag. But this time I think need the whole porcelain bowl.
Edit (2 hours later):
What Trump said:
"I'm very disappointed, I hear that they're upset about not having a seat," Trump told reporters when asked what he would say to Ukrainians who feel "betrayed."
"Today I heard, oh, well, we weren't invited. Well, you've been there for three years...You should have never started it. You could have made a deal," he said.
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Right now am listening to Trump talk about Ukraine in a Q & A presser from his Florida palace.
Trump is laying the bulk of the blame on Kyiv for this war, among other exaggerations, deflections and distortions. I feel very sorry for Rubio, his boss’s inability to show any statesmanship or hold his tongue is making a very difficult task into a near to impossible task.
Normally I would ask for someone to pass the barf bag. But this time I think need the whole porcelain bowl.
Edit (2 hours later):
What Trump said:
"I'm very disappointed, I hear that they're upset about not having a seat," Trump told reporters when asked what he would say to Ukrainians who feel "betrayed."
"Today I heard, oh, well, we weren't invited. Well, you've been there for three years...You should have never started it. You could have made a deal," he said.
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I may not have heard what Renauda heard, but I heard a lot of blaming of Biden rather than Ukraine.
The blame Biden crap, I file under deflections and squelch. Just like Beauregard’s coffee and doughnut shop gossip around here.
You didn’t hear what Trumpigula said about Ukraine because you either weren’t listening or you didn’t want to hear it. To be honest I didn’t want to hear it either but I did and so did everyone else who was paying attention.
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Word on the street is that Zelensky wouldn't even win an election in Ukraine right now.
https://news.gallup.com/poll/653495/half-ukrainians-quick-negotiated-end-war.aspx
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I normally don’t look to CNN (or for that matter, any US news outlet) but the following clip is too good to pass up. At least two Republican senators haven’t drunk the Putin Kool-Aide:
https://www.cnn.com/2025/02/18/politics/video/roger-wicker-john-kennedy-trump-putin-digvid
Word on the street is that Zelensky wouldn't even win an election in Ukraine right now.
https://news.gallup.com/poll/653495/half-ukrainians-quick-negotiated-end-war.aspx
Surprised you would even give credence to a “street” poll under the conditions a country like Ukraine is currently facing. Must be for the sake of convenience or you actually believe Trump’s bald faced lies on the matter. On the other hand, you might get more favourable results if the poll were taken in Moscow.
Anyways, let’s just wait a few more weeks to see how brutally Trump continues to rubbish and belittle the Ukrainian nation and their President. Then, by all means, let Gallup do another poll. This one you posted is nothing more than old hat from last autumn.
Ukraine’s dilemma at this moment is not too far removed from Poland in August 1939:
“With the Germans, we risk losing our freedom,” said Polish commander-in-chief Edward Rydz-Smigly, “with the Russians our soul.”
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The idea that Zelensky is the problem here seems completely bogus.
WTF are the Republicans thinking?
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I remain skeptical of the Western attitude of fierce principled support of Ukraine continuing to fight a war it cannot win, and which it is increasingly sick of fighting. I see no clear list of attainable goals for Ukraine that Trump is thwarting with his negotiations. We'll see where the negotiations go, but I am hard pressed to consider them a loss for Ukraine as of now. Sometimes both parties in a fight are happy when they are pulled apart. I think it is interesting that Zelensky's support in Ukraine is waning, along with support for the war in general.
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Nothing wrong with healthy dose of scepticism so long as it is accurately informed and not the result of blind ignorance out of personal choice.
I am sceptical about the motives of tyrants and demogogues and the sloppy thinkers who continually cheerlead and apologize for their repugnant and threatening behaviour on the world stage.
