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The New Coffee Room

  1. TNCR
  2. General Discussion
  3. The Ukraine war thread

The Ukraine war thread

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  • J Online
    J Online
    jon-nyc
    wrote on 12 Feb 2025, 15:38 last edited by
    #2383

    There was a cease fire in place October 6th February 23rd.

    "You never know what worse luck your bad luck has saved you from."
    -Cormac McCarthy

    1 Reply Last reply
    • M Mik
      12 Feb 2025, 15:34

      Depends on what happens upon Putin's demise. I see no indication things are likely to get much better.

      R Offline
      R Offline
      Renauda
      wrote on 12 Feb 2025, 15:41 last edited by
      #2384

      @Mik

      Nor do I. However….it is Russia. Nothing is ever what it seems.

      Elbows up!

      1 Reply Last reply
      • M Away
        M Away
        Mik
        wrote on 12 Feb 2025, 15:55 last edited by Mik 2 Dec 2025, 15:55
        #2385

        That's the rub in a nation where you need to conceal any ideas contrary to the current regime. Who knows if someone waiting in the wings has in mind a peaceful, prosperous Russia.

        “I am fond of pigs. Dogs look up to us. Cats look down on us. Pigs treat us as equals.” ~Winston S. Churchill

        1 Reply Last reply
        • H Horace
          12 Feb 2025, 15:06

          "But we must start by recognising that returning to Ukraine's pre-2014 borders is an unrealistic objective.

          "Chasing this illusionary goal will only prolong the war and cause more suffering."

          That is what I hear from everybody who seems serious on the subject.

          J Online
          J Online
          jon-nyc
          wrote on 12 Feb 2025, 16:28 last edited by jon-nyc 2 Dec 2025, 16:28
          #2386

          @Horace said in The Ukraine war thread:

          "But we must start by recognising that returning to Ukraine's pre-2014 borders is an unrealistic objective.

          "Chasing this illusionary goal will only prolong the war and cause more suffering."

          That is what I hear from everybody who seems serious on the subject.

          Smarter negotiators wouldn’t preemptively take options off the table before negotiations even start, such as this or NATO membership. He basically announced that negotiations will be over how much territory does Ukraine concede. For now.

          "You never know what worse luck your bad luck has saved you from."
          -Cormac McCarthy

          H 1 Reply Last reply 12 Feb 2025, 16:31
          • J jon-nyc
            12 Feb 2025, 16:28

            @Horace said in The Ukraine war thread:

            "But we must start by recognising that returning to Ukraine's pre-2014 borders is an unrealistic objective.

            "Chasing this illusionary goal will only prolong the war and cause more suffering."

            That is what I hear from everybody who seems serious on the subject.

            Smarter negotiators wouldn’t preemptively take options off the table before negotiations even start, such as this or NATO membership. He basically announced that negotiations will be over how much territory does Ukraine concede. For now.

            H Offline
            H Offline
            Horace
            wrote on 12 Feb 2025, 16:31 last edited by
            #2387

            @jon-nyc Non-serious options are of limited negotiating value.

            Education is extremely important.

            1 Reply Last reply
            • J Online
              J Online
              jon-nyc
              wrote on 12 Feb 2025, 16:32 last edited by jon-nyc 2 Dec 2025, 16:33
              #2388

              NATO membership, or its future possibility, would be a realistic leverage point.

              "You never know what worse luck your bad luck has saved you from."
              -Cormac McCarthy

              J 2 Replies Last reply 12 Feb 2025, 18:00
              • R Offline
                R Offline
                Renauda
                wrote on 12 Feb 2025, 16:50 last edited by
                #2389

                NATO membership sometime down the road must remain a possible option for Ukraine. Part of the security guarantee package for Ukraine ought to be ongoing assistance to Ukraine so that it may bring its armed forces into compliance with NATO standards. This process has already begun and the US must not let Russia put restrictions upon Ukraine in achieving this objective. The Kremlin will do everything possible in the coming negotiations to render Ukraine effectively defenceless and wholly subordinate to Moscow.

                The Kremlin will demand much and offer little or nothing in return.

                Elbows up!

                1 Reply Last reply
                • J jon-nyc
                  12 Feb 2025, 16:32

                  NATO membership, or its future possibility, would be a realistic leverage point.

                  J Offline
                  J Offline
                  Jolly
                  wrote on 12 Feb 2025, 18:00 last edited by
                  #2390

                  @jon-nyc said in The Ukraine war thread:

                  NATO membership, or its future possibility, would be a realistic leverage point.

                  Yep, would leverage us right into a full European war.

                  R 1 Reply Last reply 12 Feb 2025, 18:31
                  • J Online
                    J Online
                    jon-nyc
                    wrote on 12 Feb 2025, 18:05 last edited by
                    #2391

                    The idea would be to give it up for something, not nothing. You know, art of the deal?

                    "You never know what worse luck your bad luck has saved you from."
                    -Cormac McCarthy

                    1 Reply Last reply
                    • J Jolly
                      12 Feb 2025, 18:00

                      @jon-nyc said in The Ukraine war thread:

                      NATO membership, or its future possibility, would be a realistic leverage point.

                      Yep, would leverage us right into a full European war.

                      R Offline
                      R Offline
                      Renauda
                      wrote on 12 Feb 2025, 18:31 last edited by Renauda
                      #2392

                      @Jolly said in The Ukraine war thread:

                      @jon-nyc said in The Ukraine war thread:

                      NATO membership, or its future possibility, would be a realistic leverage point.

                      Yep, would leverage us right into a full European war.

                      Indeed, Putin would have you think that.

                      Putin also knows that as it stands, NATO is Russia’s best guarantee that its western borderlands are not only secure but safe from attack. It must have come as a relief to Putin when Finland joined NATO as it enabled him immediately to begin a withdrawal of a large contingent of ground forces stationed along the Karelian frontier.

                      But you probably either missed that fact altogether or chose not to take it into consideration as it does not fit your narrative. I suspect the latter.

                      Elbows up!

                      1 Reply Last reply
                      • J Online
                        J Online
                        jon-nyc
                        wrote on 13 Feb 2025, 03:02 last edited by
                        #2393

                        "You never know what worse luck your bad luck has saved you from."
                        -Cormac McCarthy

                        1 Reply Last reply
                        • R Offline
                          R Offline
                          Renauda
                          wrote on 13 Feb 2025, 18:42 last edited by Renauda
                          #2394

                          Putin Won’t Settle for Less than a Betrayal of Ukraine

                          But there would have to be an agreement on ending the war in Ukraine, or else the summit would fail. What would such an agreement look like? Putin’s demands are clear, and they would require significant concessions from the United States — concessions that, if granted, would leave Ukraine adrift and at Russia’s mercy.

                          The first item on Putin’s wish list would be the recognition (including by Ukraine) of Russia’s territorial gains. He would insist on keeping all the territories Russia currently occupies, as well as those he has formally annexed but not yet fully controls. This is a prospect Zelensky has repeatedly rejected. It goes without saying that Ukraine would be asked to withdraw from Kursk, which it invaded, to dubious benefit, some months ago.

                          Equally important would be Ukraine’s formal, permanent neutrality. This was a major sticking point during the Istanbul negotiations in the spring of 2022. At the time, Ukraine sought real security guarantees to prevent future Russian aggression. Russia, however, insisted on a mechanism that would allow it to be consulted — and potentially veto — any Ukrainian request for external assistance.

                          Putin would likely agree only to meaningless guarantees — ones that could not be effectively invoked if Russia were to launch another attack. As in Istanbul, he would want to leave Russia and its potential partners (like China and Belarus) in a position to veto any Ukrainian request for external assistance. For that reason, it is very doubtful that Putin would ever agree to a European peacekeeping contingent to enforce the agreement.

                          Would Trump agree to such a framework? If he did, it would amount to a betrayal of Ukraine and would leave the country defenseless against future aggression.

                          https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/02/13/putin-wont-settle-for-less-than-a-us-betrayal-of-ukraine-a87994

                          Elbows up!

                          J 1 Reply Last reply 13 Feb 2025, 19:09
                          • M Away
                            M Away
                            Mik
                            wrote on 13 Feb 2025, 18:48 last edited by
                            #2395

                            Which is all he really wants - time to strengthen the economy and restore the military.

                            “I am fond of pigs. Dogs look up to us. Cats look down on us. Pigs treat us as equals.” ~Winston S. Churchill

                            1 Reply Last reply
                            • R Renauda
                              13 Feb 2025, 18:42

                              Putin Won’t Settle for Less than a Betrayal of Ukraine

                              But there would have to be an agreement on ending the war in Ukraine, or else the summit would fail. What would such an agreement look like? Putin’s demands are clear, and they would require significant concessions from the United States — concessions that, if granted, would leave Ukraine adrift and at Russia’s mercy.

                              The first item on Putin’s wish list would be the recognition (including by Ukraine) of Russia’s territorial gains. He would insist on keeping all the territories Russia currently occupies, as well as those he has formally annexed but not yet fully controls. This is a prospect Zelensky has repeatedly rejected. It goes without saying that Ukraine would be asked to withdraw from Kursk, which it invaded, to dubious benefit, some months ago.

                              Equally important would be Ukraine’s formal, permanent neutrality. This was a major sticking point during the Istanbul negotiations in the spring of 2022. At the time, Ukraine sought real security guarantees to prevent future Russian aggression. Russia, however, insisted on a mechanism that would allow it to be consulted — and potentially veto — any Ukrainian request for external assistance.

                              Putin would likely agree only to meaningless guarantees — ones that could not be effectively invoked if Russia were to launch another attack. As in Istanbul, he would want to leave Russia and its potential partners (like China and Belarus) in a position to veto any Ukrainian request for external assistance. For that reason, it is very doubtful that Putin would ever agree to a European peacekeeping contingent to enforce the agreement.

                              Would Trump agree to such a framework? If he did, it would amount to a betrayal of Ukraine and would leave the country defenseless against future aggression.

                              https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/02/13/putin-wont-settle-for-less-than-a-us-betrayal-of-ukraine-a87994

                              J Online
                              J Online
                              jon-nyc
                              wrote on 13 Feb 2025, 19:09 last edited by
                              #2396

                              @Renauda said in The Ukraine war thread:

                              Putin Won’t Settle for Less than a Betrayal of Ukraine

                              Seems like he got that this week.

                              "You never know what worse luck your bad luck has saved you from."
                              -Cormac McCarthy

                              1 Reply Last reply
                              • R Offline
                                R Offline
                                Renauda
                                wrote on 13 Feb 2025, 19:14 last edited by Renauda
                                #2397

                                @jon-nyc

                                Am sure there are more goodies and rewards in the basket for Putin.

                                Apparently Russia is the aggrieved victim in this war because Ukraine had the audacity to defend itself when attacked.

                                Elbows up!

                                1 Reply Last reply
                                • J jon-nyc
                                  12 Feb 2025, 16:32

                                  NATO membership, or its future possibility, would be a realistic leverage point.

                                  J Offline
                                  J Offline
                                  Jolly
                                  wrote on 14 Feb 2025, 01:26 last edited by
                                  #2398
                                  This post is deleted!
                                  1 Reply Last reply
                                  • W Do not disturb
                                    W Do not disturb
                                    Wim
                                    wrote on 14 Feb 2025, 14:42 last edited by
                                    #2399

                                    I don't know Wicker, but he's spot on:

                                    https://www.politico.eu/article/senate-armed-services-chair-roger-wicker-pete-hegseth-war-in-ukraine-russia/

                                    1 Reply Last reply
                                    • R Offline
                                      R Offline
                                      Renauda
                                      wrote on 14 Feb 2025, 19:53 last edited by Renauda
                                      #2400

                                      Russian picks its negotiating team:

                                      https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/02/14/putin-taps-spy-chief-veteran-diplomat-and-us-sanctioned-financier-for-ukraine-peace-talks-bloomberg-a88019

                                      Naryshkin was the FSB hood who received a public bollocking from Putin three years ago when it became painfully obvious the Ukrainians were not greeting the invading Russian troops with bread and salt offerings.

                                      Elbows up!

                                      1 Reply Last reply
                                      • M Away
                                        M Away
                                        Mik
                                        wrote on 15 Feb 2025, 14:28 last edited by
                                        #2401

                                        https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukraine-rare-earth-deal-trump-s-bold-proposal-hits-a-snag/ar-AA1z6X7S

                                        “I am fond of pigs. Dogs look up to us. Cats look down on us. Pigs treat us as equals.” ~Winston S. Churchill

                                        1 Reply Last reply
                                        • R Offline
                                          R Offline
                                          Renauda
                                          wrote on 15 Feb 2025, 15:42 last edited by Renauda
                                          #2402

                                          The rare earths are primarily concentrated in the Donbas region under Russian control. However there are also deposits in the annexed but as yet unoccupied regions of Zaporizhie. Yeah, it’s a snag alright.

                                          Map:

                                          https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/aF3c3/2/

                                          More information on topic:

                                          https://www.politico.eu/article/us-donald-trump-asks-zelenskyy-half-ukraine-rare-minerals-military-support/

                                          Elbows up!

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