The Ukraine war thread

[Mik]

Shooting those who show fear?

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russian-soldiers-executed-for-showing-fear-captured-recruit-says/ar-AA15dZGS?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=9150581bc2df441387090870b8fa72a2

[Renauda]

@Mik

The Wagner group appears to be a cross between an armed Latin American militia and the Nazi Einsatzgruppen.

[Renauda]

Here is a 10 minute video report describing how Putin’s propaganda has shifted over the course of the past 9 months:

Putin’s Propaganda Machine Shifts its Tone on Ukraine

[George K]

@Renauda no surprise that the message has changed.

But this is a nice compilation.

[Mik]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/china-deals-hammer-blow-to-russia-s-war-effort/ar-AA15dTRa?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=4821ba7548c3414dbbacf664f736e79a

[George K]

[Renauda]

Russia planning new offensive in new year:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63995244

[George K]

@Renauda said in The Ukraine war thread:

Russia planning new offensive in new year:

I imagine they've learned a lot from their missteps last February.

OTOH, just how good are the mobiks? They've burned through a lot of materiel in 10 months (about 3K tanks, 200 aircraft). I imagine supplies are dwindling.

[Mik]

This is all well and good. I just wish we'd stop announcing it and giving the location.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/us-to-expand-combat-training-for-ukrainian-troops/ar-AA15kxQO?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=f60ce41f3f3e43d9ab5441a4c4184571

[Renauda]

@Mik

I see another side to announcing it. It is an open declaration of defiance to Putin’s intimidation tactics against NATO. It also counters Kremlin disinformation regarding covert NATO support to Ukraine. I trust that the Pentagon knows what it is doing.

[Mik]

Could be.

For all his nuclear saber rattling, I can't imagine Putin has too much confidence in his nuclear forces after the performance of his conventional ones.

[George K]

It's interesting (for lack of a better word) to see Putin's objection to the US delivery of Patriot missiles to Ukraine. This is 100% a defensive weapon.

[Copper]

Maybe the US troops aren't operating the equipment, but it sounds like they are standing there watching it operate. And they are training the guys operating it.

That is pretty close to fighting in the war.

[Mik]

Kissinger says we should not crush Russia but should negotiate. He thinks Ukraine should cede territory to Russia. I will consider what he says, but it is near impossible to think Russia should be rewarded for aggression.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-suffering-crippling-loss-in-ukraine-threatens-world-order-kissinger/ar-AA15mZZ1?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=312ff191994d47eca422f68f09b2ec94

[Copper]

@Mik said in The Ukraine war thread:

t is near impossible to think Russia should be rewarded for aggression.

The reward isn't for the aggression, it's for winning.

Or in the case of a negotiated settlement, the reward is negotiated. Stopping the aggression is worth something.

[George K]

[Renauda]

@Mik

At the this point, Russia is only prepared to dictate terms of surrender to Ukraine that amount to nothing less than the unconditional surrender of its territory and sovereignty.

So no, in the foreseeable future it is folly to even consider the Kremlin could sit down and negotiate in good faith a stop to its aggression against Ukraine and, by extension, NATO.

[Jolly]

Somebody has to run out of will, money or bodies at some point.

[Renauda]

@Jolly

Although it has an abundance of will to defend itself, Ukraine is out of money and running out of bodies.

Russia is flush with cash, has plenty of bodies in reserve and is sufficiently deluded to believe in its own infallibility to fight NATO indefinitely.

[George K]

@Renauda said in The Ukraine war thread:

Ukraine is out of money and running out of bodies.

Several sources claim > 90K Russian dead. If the ⅓ ratio holds, that adds up to 270K casualties.

I've not seen anything about Ukranian casualties. I imagine it's probably similar.