US has a shitload of cases
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It's been three days since I updated this.
"53268. 24% increase deaths 696, up 20%
64,767. 22% increase. Deaths 919, up 32%
82,404. 27% increase. Deaths 1178, up 28%
100,717. 22% increase. Deaths 1544, up 31%
121,117. 20% increase. Deaths 2010, up 30%
137,294. 13% increase. Deaths 2414, up 20%.
159,184 16% increase. Deaths 2953 up 22%.
184,183 16% increase. Deaths 3721 up 26%
209,071 14% increase. Deaths 4633 up 25%
238,820, 14% increase. Deaths 5758, up 24%."331,234, 11.5% daily* increase. Deaths 9458, 18% daily* increase.
(calculated a compound daily average growth rate)
wrote on 6 Apr 2020, 22:41 last edited by@jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:
"53268. 24% increase deaths 696, up 20%
64,767. 22% increase. Deaths 919, up 32%
82,404. 27% increase. Deaths 1178, up 28%
100,717. 22% increase. Deaths 1544, up 31%
121,117. 20% increase. Deaths 2010, up 30%
137,294. 13% increase. Deaths 2414, up 20%.
159,184 16% increase. Deaths 2953 up 22%.
184,183 16% increase. Deaths 3721 up 26%
209,071 14% increase. Deaths 4633 up 25%
238,820, 14% increase. Deaths 5758, up 24%."
331,234, 11.5% daily* increase. Deaths 9458, 18% daily* increase.364,723, 10% increase. Deaths 10,689, 13% increase.
Good trend on both fronts. At least 2nd deriv
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wrote on 6 Apr 2020, 22:55 last edited by
Politicans should just keep their fucking mouths shut about this stuff. Let the data and experts speak.
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@jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:
"53268. 24% increase deaths 696, up 20%
64,767. 22% increase. Deaths 919, up 32%
82,404. 27% increase. Deaths 1178, up 28%
100,717. 22% increase. Deaths 1544, up 31%
121,117. 20% increase. Deaths 2010, up 30%
137,294. 13% increase. Deaths 2414, up 20%.
159,184 16% increase. Deaths 2953 up 22%.
184,183 16% increase. Deaths 3721 up 26%
209,071 14% increase. Deaths 4633 up 25%
238,820, 14% increase. Deaths 5758, up 24%."
331,234, 11.5% daily* increase. Deaths 9458, 18% daily* increase.364,723, 10% increase. Deaths 10,689, 13% increase.
Good trend on both fronts. At least 2nd deriv
wrote on 7 Apr 2020, 22:18 last edited by@jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:
82,404. 27% increase. Deaths 1178, up 28%
100,717. 22% increase. Deaths 1544, up 31%
121,117. 20% increase. Deaths 2010, up 30%
137,294. 13% increase. Deaths 2414, up 20%.
159,184 16% increase. Deaths 2953 up 22%.
184,183 16% increase. Deaths 3721 up 26%
209,071 14% increase. Deaths 4633 up 25%
238,820, 14% increase. Deaths 5758, up 24%."
331,234, 11.5% daily* increase. Deaths 9458, 18% daily* increase.
364,723, 10% increase. Deaths 10,689, 13% increase.386,817, 6% increase. Deaths 12,285 15% increase.
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wrote on 7 Apr 2020, 23:28 last edited by
7 day doubling
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@jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:
82,404. 27% increase. Deaths 1178, up 28%
100,717. 22% increase. Deaths 1544, up 31%
121,117. 20% increase. Deaths 2010, up 30%
137,294. 13% increase. Deaths 2414, up 20%.
159,184 16% increase. Deaths 2953 up 22%.
184,183 16% increase. Deaths 3721 up 26%
209,071 14% increase. Deaths 4633 up 25%
238,820, 14% increase. Deaths 5758, up 24%."
331,234, 11.5% daily* increase. Deaths 9458, 18% daily* increase.
364,723, 10% increase. Deaths 10,689, 13% increase.386,817, 6% increase. Deaths 12,285 15% increase.
wrote on 8 Apr 2020, 22:12 last edited by@jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:
100,717. 22% increase. Deaths 1544, up 31%
121,117. 20% increase. Deaths 2010, up 30%
137,294. 13% increase. Deaths 2414, up 20%.
159,184 16% increase. Deaths 2953 up 22%.
184,183 16% increase. Deaths 3721 up 26%
209,071 14% increase. Deaths 4633 up 25%
238,820, 14% increase. Deaths 5758, up 24%."
331,234, 11.5% daily* increase. Deaths 9458, 18% daily* increase.
364,723, 10% increase. Deaths 10,689, 13% increase.
386,817, 6% increase. Deaths 12,285 15% increase.423,135 9% increase. Deaths 14,390 17% increase.
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@jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:
100,717. 22% increase. Deaths 1544, up 31%
121,117. 20% increase. Deaths 2010, up 30%
137,294. 13% increase. Deaths 2414, up 20%.
159,184 16% increase. Deaths 2953 up 22%.
184,183 16% increase. Deaths 3721 up 26%
209,071 14% increase. Deaths 4633 up 25%
238,820, 14% increase. Deaths 5758, up 24%."
331,234, 11.5% daily* increase. Deaths 9458, 18% daily* increase.
364,723, 10% increase. Deaths 10,689, 13% increase.
386,817, 6% increase. Deaths 12,285 15% increase.423,135 9% increase. Deaths 14,390 17% increase.
wrote on 9 Apr 2020, 22:03 last edited by@jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:
137,294. 13% increase. Deaths 2414, up 20%.
159,184 16% increase. Deaths 2953 up 22%.
184,183 16% increase. Deaths 3721 up 26%
209,071 14% increase. Deaths 4633 up 25%
238,820, 14% increase. Deaths 5758, up 24%."
331,234, 11.5% daily* increase. Deaths 9458, 18% daily* increase.
364,723, 10% increase. Deaths 10,689, 13% increase.
386,817, 6% increase. Deaths 12,285 15% increase.
423,135 9% increase. Deaths 14,390 17% increase.454,305 7.3% increase. Deaths 16,267 13% increase.
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@jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:
137,294. 13% increase. Deaths 2414, up 20%.
159,184 16% increase. Deaths 2953 up 22%.
184,183 16% increase. Deaths 3721 up 26%
209,071 14% increase. Deaths 4633 up 25%
238,820, 14% increase. Deaths 5758, up 24%."
331,234, 11.5% daily* increase. Deaths 9458, 18% daily* increase.
364,723, 10% increase. Deaths 10,689, 13% increase.
386,817, 6% increase. Deaths 12,285 15% increase.
423,135 9% increase. Deaths 14,390 17% increase.454,305 7.3% increase. Deaths 16,267 13% increase.
wrote on 12 Apr 2020, 22:38 last edited by@jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:
159,184 16% increase. Deaths 2953 up 22%.
184,183 16% increase. Deaths 3721 up 26%
209,071 14% increase. Deaths 4633 up 25%
238,820, 14% increase. Deaths 5758, up 24%."
331,234, 11.5% daily* increase. Deaths 9458, 18% daily* increase.
364,723, 10% increase. Deaths 10,689, 13% increase.
386,817, 6% increase. Deaths 12,285 15% increase.
423,135 9% increase. Deaths 14,390 17% increase.
454,305 7.3% increase. Deaths 16,267 13% increase.Again three days since I've updated this so I'm computing daily average gains.
550,016 6.6% daily increase. Deaths 21,994 10.6% daily increase.
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wrote on 12 Apr 2020, 22:47 last edited by
Second derivatives going down?
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wrote on 12 Apr 2020, 22:50 last edited by
Yes, for sure. If bumpy along the way.
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@jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:
159,184 16% increase. Deaths 2953 up 22%.
184,183 16% increase. Deaths 3721 up 26%
209,071 14% increase. Deaths 4633 up 25%
238,820, 14% increase. Deaths 5758, up 24%."
331,234, 11.5% daily* increase. Deaths 9458, 18% daily* increase.
364,723, 10% increase. Deaths 10,689, 13% increase.
386,817, 6% increase. Deaths 12,285 15% increase.
423,135 9% increase. Deaths 14,390 17% increase.
454,305 7.3% increase. Deaths 16,267 13% increase.Again three days since I've updated this so I'm computing daily average gains.
550,016 6.6% daily increase. Deaths 21,994 10.6% daily increase.
wrote on 13 Apr 2020, 21:58 last edited by@jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:
209,071 14% increase. Deaths 4633 up 25%
238,820, 14% increase. Deaths 5758, up 24%."
331,234, 11.5% daily* increase. Deaths 9458, 18% daily* increase.
364,723, 10% increase. Deaths 10,689, 13% increase.
386,817, 6% increase. Deaths 12,285 15% increase.
423,135 9% increase. Deaths 14,390 17% increase.
454,305 7.3% increase. Deaths 16,267 13% increase.
550,016 6.6% daily increase. Deaths 21,994 10.6% daily increase.577,307 5% increase. Deaths 23,219 up 5.6%
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@jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:
209,071 14% increase. Deaths 4633 up 25%
238,820, 14% increase. Deaths 5758, up 24%."
331,234, 11.5% daily* increase. Deaths 9458, 18% daily* increase.
364,723, 10% increase. Deaths 10,689, 13% increase.
386,817, 6% increase. Deaths 12,285 15% increase.
423,135 9% increase. Deaths 14,390 17% increase.
454,305 7.3% increase. Deaths 16,267 13% increase.
550,016 6.6% daily increase. Deaths 21,994 10.6% daily increase.577,307 5% increase. Deaths 23,219 up 5.6%
wrote on 15 Apr 2020, 21:52 last edited by@jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:
209,071 14% increase. Deaths 4633 up 25%
238,820, 14% increase. Deaths 5758, up 24%."
331,234, 11.5% daily* increase. Deaths 9458, 18% daily* increase.
364,723, 10% increase. Deaths 10,689, 13% increase.
386,817, 6% increase. Deaths 12,285 15% increase.
423,135 9% increase. Deaths 14,390 17% increase.
454,305 7.3% increase. Deaths 16,267 13% increase.
550,016 6.6% daily increase. Deaths 21,994 10.6% daily increase.
577,307 5% increase. Deaths 23,219 up 5.6%2 days since update.
632,878 4.7% daily increase. Deaths 27,850 9.5% daily increase.
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wrote on 16 Apr 2020, 02:24 last edited by
Right, here’s what scares me, a good long stretch at 5% increases.
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Right, here’s what scares me, a good long stretch at 5% increases.
wrote on 16 Apr 2020, 15:58 last edited by@LuFins-Dad said in US has a shitload of cases:
Right, here’s what scares me, a good long stretch at 5% increases.
Exactly. We haven't hit <1.0 yet.
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wrote on 16 Apr 2020, 17:27 last edited by
Is there a good place to find that growth factor? I know (think) we are getting close to <1.0
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@jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:
209,071 14% increase. Deaths 4633 up 25%
238,820, 14% increase. Deaths 5758, up 24%."
331,234, 11.5% daily* increase. Deaths 9458, 18% daily* increase.
364,723, 10% increase. Deaths 10,689, 13% increase.
386,817, 6% increase. Deaths 12,285 15% increase.
423,135 9% increase. Deaths 14,390 17% increase.
454,305 7.3% increase. Deaths 16,267 13% increase.
550,016 6.6% daily increase. Deaths 21,994 10.6% daily increase.
577,307 5% increase. Deaths 23,219 up 5.6%2 days since update.
632,878 4.7% daily increase. Deaths 27,850 9.5% daily increase.
wrote on 16 Apr 2020, 21:59 last edited by@jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:
209,071 14% increase. Deaths 4633 up 25%
238,820, 14% increase. Deaths 5758, up 24%."
331,234, 11.5% daily* increase. Deaths 9458, 18% daily* increase.
364,723, 10% increase. Deaths 10,689, 13% increase.
386,817, 6% increase. Deaths 12,285 15% increase.
423,135 9% increase. Deaths 14,390 17% increase.
454,305 7.3% increase. Deaths 16,267 13% increase.
550,016 6.6% daily increase. Deaths 21,994 10.6% daily increase.
577,307 5% increase. Deaths 23,219 up 5.6%
632,878 4.7% daily increase. Deaths 27,850 9.5% daily increase.658,263 4% increase. Deaths 32,186 up 15.6%
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Is there a good place to find that growth factor? I know (think) we are getting close to <1.0
wrote on 16 Apr 2020, 22:03 last edited by@89th said in US has a shitload of cases:
Is there a good place to find that growth factor? I know (think) we are getting close to <1.0
We are but like jon, I don't think we're ever going to get there.
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wrote on 16 Apr 2020, 22:12 last edited by
I would love for the Tibco estimates to be true.
I keep meaning to look into the calculations with more detail.
The reason I'm skeptical is the study from Wuhan and the study form Imperial College re Europe. Those were deep dives (which I've yet to fully dive into myself) into estimating R0 in countries that are ahead of us and/or did a stiricter lockdown. And they we not likely there.
I worry the tibco calculations are less rigorous, something arithmetically generated with each new day's data. But I don't know enough yet.
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wrote on 16 Apr 2020, 22:14 last edited by
But to answer your question 89, look here and scroll down. The site is pretty nonfunctional on mobile devices.
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wrote on 17 Apr 2020, 01:14 last edited by
Great site. Got better as I dug into each section, thanks!
@Aqua-Letifer What do you mean we're ever going to get there. I'd imagine very soon (in the next 2-3 weeks) we'll have fewer cases "today" than there were "yesterday" on a consistent basis.
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Great site. Got better as I dug into each section, thanks!
@Aqua-Letifer What do you mean we're ever going to get there. I'd imagine very soon (in the next 2-3 weeks) we'll have fewer cases "today" than there were "yesterday" on a consistent basis.
wrote on 17 Apr 2020, 01:19 last edited by@89th I think slightly more people will continue to get infected per day than we have recoveries per day. Would be great to be wrong about that.