In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak
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@Loki said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
@jon-nyc said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
@Horace said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
Getting below 1 is a meaningless threshold when you employ temporary and unsustainable measures to get there.
Temporary is a feature and if you get substantially below 1 there's no need to sustain because new cases will be manageable through contact tracing.
Well that’s interesting. I want to know how contact tracing will work in the US. No way I predict an Apple/ google initiative will get anywhere near the opt in necessary to make viable. That’s like saying hydro chloroquine will work.
Yes it will be interesting to watch America do contact tracing in the next couple months.
@Horace said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
Yes it will be interesting to watch America do contact tracing in the next couple months.
I don't think it will. Too many Coppers and Candices here. We'll get the pandemic we deserve.
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@jon-nyc said in [In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak]> > > >
Temporary is a feature and if you get substantially below 1 there's no need to sustain because new cases will be manageable through contact tracing.
Wuhan supposedly got their R down to about 0.3. At that number you could go from 10k new cases a day down to under 100 in just 4 weeks. We've been locked down for about 6 weeks now.
@jon-nyc said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
@jon-nyc said in [In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak]> > > >
We've been locked down for about 6 weeks now.
Some of us have been locked down.
Most have just had a few snow days playing video games.
After that they went right back to costco, walmart and lowes.
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For those who are sincerely interested in the letter R here is an interesting link, although I certainly don’t understand the math.
https://mrc-ide.github.io/covid19-short-term-forecasts/#content
For those who are not interested in r, just move along to s,t, u v,w....etc.
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I must admit I have no idea what your prediction was. My frame was hospital utilization and deaths i.e the crisis in NYC. Obviously you are talking about something else.
The real key is if summer has impact. At one point Fauci expressed confidence it would die down with warmth and come back in the fall. I have no idea what the current thought on a pause due to weather is.
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@jon-nyc said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
My logic from above:
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our shutdown measures were insufficient to get the reproductive rate down below 1. That was based on data from Wuhan and Europe.
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a sharp drop in R but to a level greater than 1 will only lead to a temporary decline in cases/deaths, then they start rising inexorably from a new, lower base.
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the temporary decline will be interpreted as victory and will lead to a loosening of mitigation measures, which then increases the reproductive rate even more.
That was my logic above. Unfortunately it seems to be playing out.
Another specific prediction was:
When we look back from, say, the end of the year, we will not see April as the month with the most cases or the most deaths.
All this was stated in the second week of April.
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CDC expects 3k deaths per day in May.
https://www.nationalreview.com/news/internal-cdc-models-project-3000-daily-covid-deaths-by-june-1/
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CDC expects 3k deaths per day in May.
https://www.nationalreview.com/news/internal-cdc-models-project-3000-daily-covid-deaths-by-june-1/
