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The New Coffee Room

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  3. In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak

In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak

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  • jon-nycJ Online
    jon-nycJ Online
    jon-nyc
    wrote on last edited by
    #111

    What particular logic. Tell me the thought you attribute to me that you would like me to defend.

    Only non-witches get due process.

    • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
    L 1 Reply Last reply
    • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

      What particular logic. Tell me the thought you attribute to me that you would like me to defend.

      L Offline
      L Offline
      Loki
      wrote on last edited by
      #112

      @jon-nyc said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:

      What particular logic. Tell me the thought you attribute to me that you would like me to defend.

      You keep showing growing case counts. I keep asking you what does it mean? I tried to ask you what growth in testing and declining deaths mean as a way of asking what your growing case count means.

      1 Reply Last reply
      • jon-nycJ Online
        jon-nycJ Online
        jon-nyc
        wrote on last edited by jon-nyc
        #113

        I can repeat my logic from above, but yesterday I was just sharing data.

        My logic from above:

        • our shutdown measures were insufficient to get the reproductive rate down below 1. That was based on data from Wuhan and Europe.

        • a sharp drop in R but to a level greater than 1 will only lead to a temporary decline in cases/deaths, then they start rising inexorably from a new, lower base.

        • the temporary decline will be interpreted as victory and will lead to a loosening of mitigation measures, which then increases the reproductive rate even more.

        That was my logic above. Unfortunately it seems to be playing out.

        Only non-witches get due process.

        • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
        L HoraceH 2 Replies Last reply
        • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

          I can repeat my logic from above, but yesterday I was just sharing data.

          My logic from above:

          • our shutdown measures were insufficient to get the reproductive rate down below 1. That was based on data from Wuhan and Europe.

          • a sharp drop in R but to a level greater than 1 will only lead to a temporary decline in cases/deaths, then they start rising inexorably from a new, lower base.

          • the temporary decline will be interpreted as victory and will lead to a loosening of mitigation measures, which then increases the reproductive rate even more.

          That was my logic above. Unfortunately it seems to be playing out.

          L Offline
          L Offline
          Loki
          wrote on last edited by
          #114

          @jon-nyc said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:

          I can repeat my logic from above, but yesterday I was just sharing data.

          My logic from above:

          • our shutdown measures were insufficient to get the reproductive rate down below 1. That was based on data from Wuhan and Europe.

          • a sharp drop in R but to a level greater than 1 will only lead to a temporary decline in cases/deaths, then they start rising inexorably from a new, lower base.

          • the temporary decline will be interpreted as victory and will lead to a loosening of mitigation measures, which then increases the reproductive rate even more.

          That was my logic above. Unfortunately it seems to be playing out.

          Got it. Yes when we open up R will increase. I have yet to see R versus economic impact (broad definition of economic impact). Keeping us in lockdown makes sense if waiting helps but waiting for how long and for what? Let’s make some assumptions about what might come along and put it in that model to see what is the optimal strategy for opening vs lockdown. Lockdown is certain death if it doesn’t end.

          Aqua LetiferA 1 Reply Last reply
          • L Loki

            @jon-nyc said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:

            I can repeat my logic from above, but yesterday I was just sharing data.

            My logic from above:

            • our shutdown measures were insufficient to get the reproductive rate down below 1. That was based on data from Wuhan and Europe.

            • a sharp drop in R but to a level greater than 1 will only lead to a temporary decline in cases/deaths, then they start rising inexorably from a new, lower base.

            • the temporary decline will be interpreted as victory and will lead to a loosening of mitigation measures, which then increases the reproductive rate even more.

            That was my logic above. Unfortunately it seems to be playing out.

            Got it. Yes when we open up R will increase. I have yet to see R versus economic impact (broad definition of economic impact). Keeping us in lockdown makes sense if waiting helps but waiting for how long and for what? Let’s make some assumptions about what might come along and put it in that model to see what is the optimal strategy for opening vs lockdown. Lockdown is certain death if it doesn’t end.

            Aqua LetiferA Offline
            Aqua LetiferA Offline
            Aqua Letifer
            wrote on last edited by
            #115

            @Loki said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:

            Keeping us in lockdown makes sense if waiting helps but waiting for how long and for what? Let’s make some assumptions about what might come along and put it in that model to see what is the optimal strategy for opening vs lockdown. Lockdown is certain death if it doesn’t end.

            Our state has a very clear plan for this—we have been told many times since about 10 days ago exactly how and when the lockdown is going to be phased out. Most states that are in the midst of rising cases either have a similar plan, or are actively developing one in conjunction with the NGA. "There's no plan to reopen, we can't keep doing this forever" is a very weak argument at this point.

            Please love yourself.

            L 1 Reply Last reply
            • Aqua LetiferA Aqua Letifer

              @Loki said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:

              Keeping us in lockdown makes sense if waiting helps but waiting for how long and for what? Let’s make some assumptions about what might come along and put it in that model to see what is the optimal strategy for opening vs lockdown. Lockdown is certain death if it doesn’t end.

              Our state has a very clear plan for this—we have been told many times since about 10 days ago exactly how and when the lockdown is going to be phased out. Most states that are in the midst of rising cases either have a similar plan, or are actively developing one in conjunction with the NGA. "There's no plan to reopen, we can't keep doing this forever" is a very weak argument at this point.

              L Offline
              L Offline
              Loki
              wrote on last edited by Loki
              #116

              @Aqua-Letifer said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:

              @Loki said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:

              Keeping us in lockdown makes sense if waiting helps but waiting for how long and for what? Let’s make some assumptions about what might come along and put it in that model to see what is the optimal strategy for opening vs lockdown. Lockdown is certain death if it doesn’t end.

              Our state has a very clear plan for this—we have been told many times since about 10 days ago exactly how and when the lockdown is going to be phased out. Most states that are in the midst of rising cases either have a similar plan, or are actively developing one in conjunction with the NGA. "There's no plan to reopen, we can't keep doing this forever" is a very weak argument at this point.

              Okay so we start back up spreading from a lower base of active cases, what does twhat really get us- longer ramp up to catastrophe again? Or do you think having less cases means it won’t spread?

              And the latest news is the anti viral is not so effective and Covid spreads even by merely talking and summer makes no diff...

              Aqua LetiferA 1 Reply Last reply
              • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

                I can repeat my logic from above, but yesterday I was just sharing data.

                My logic from above:

                • our shutdown measures were insufficient to get the reproductive rate down below 1. That was based on data from Wuhan and Europe.

                • a sharp drop in R but to a level greater than 1 will only lead to a temporary decline in cases/deaths, then they start rising inexorably from a new, lower base.

                • the temporary decline will be interpreted as victory and will lead to a loosening of mitigation measures, which then increases the reproductive rate even more.

                That was my logic above. Unfortunately it seems to be playing out.

                HoraceH Offline
                HoraceH Offline
                Horace
                wrote on last edited by
                #117

                @jon-nyc said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:

                I can repeat my logic from above, but yesterday I was just sharing data.

                My logic from above:

                • our shutdown measures were insufficient to get the reproductive rate down below 1. That was based on data from Wuhan and Europe.

                • a sharp drop in R but to a level greater than 1 will only lead to a temporary decline in cases/deaths, then they start rising inexorably from a new, lower base.

                • the temporary decline will be interpreted as victory and will lead to a loosening of mitigation measures, which then increases the reproductive rate even more.

                That was my logic above. Unfortunately it seems to be playing out.

                Getting below 1 is a meaningless threshold when you employ temporary and unsustainable measures to get there.

                Education is extremely important.

                KlausK jon-nycJ 2 Replies Last reply
                • L Loki

                  @Aqua-Letifer said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:

                  @Loki said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:

                  Keeping us in lockdown makes sense if waiting helps but waiting for how long and for what? Let’s make some assumptions about what might come along and put it in that model to see what is the optimal strategy for opening vs lockdown. Lockdown is certain death if it doesn’t end.

                  Our state has a very clear plan for this—we have been told many times since about 10 days ago exactly how and when the lockdown is going to be phased out. Most states that are in the midst of rising cases either have a similar plan, or are actively developing one in conjunction with the NGA. "There's no plan to reopen, we can't keep doing this forever" is a very weak argument at this point.

                  Okay so we start back up spreading from a lower base of active cases, what does twhat really get us- longer ramp up to catastrophe again? Or do you think having less cases means it won’t spread?

                  And the latest news is the anti viral is not so effective and Covid spreads even by merely talking and summer makes no diff...

                  Aqua LetiferA Offline
                  Aqua LetiferA Offline
                  Aqua Letifer
                  wrote on last edited by
                  #118

                  @Loki said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:

                  @Aqua-Letifer said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:

                  @Loki said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:

                  Keeping us in lockdown makes sense if waiting helps but waiting for how long and for what? Let’s make some assumptions about what might come along and put it in that model to see what is the optimal strategy for opening vs lockdown. Lockdown is certain death if it doesn’t end.

                  Our state has a very clear plan for this—we have been told many times since about 10 days ago exactly how and when the lockdown is going to be phased out. Most states that are in the midst of rising cases either have a similar plan, or are actively developing one in conjunction with the NGA. "There's no plan to reopen, we can't keep doing this forever" is a very weak argument at this point.

                  Okay so we start back up spreading from a lower base of active cases, what does twhat really get us- longer ramp up to catastrophe again? Or do you think having less cases means it won’t spread?

                  And the latest news is the anti viral is not so effective and Covid spreads even by merely talking and summer makes no diff...

                  Adequate hospital capacity drastically reduces the mortality rate. That's why the entire reopening plan in this state centers on waiting until the inevitable influx of cases doesn't overwhelm hospitals, and getting serious safety measures in place so that the acceleration of cases doesn't screw us. Once hospitals hit capacity again, they're going to tighten back up.

                  No that's not a perfect solution but this is a state plan to combat a global pandemic, with an emphasis on saving lives. If you think the plan is crap, write to the governor's office. I'm sure after hearing so they'll turn the ship right around.

                  Please love yourself.

                  L 1 Reply Last reply
                  • HoraceH Horace

                    @jon-nyc said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:

                    I can repeat my logic from above, but yesterday I was just sharing data.

                    My logic from above:

                    • our shutdown measures were insufficient to get the reproductive rate down below 1. That was based on data from Wuhan and Europe.

                    • a sharp drop in R but to a level greater than 1 will only lead to a temporary decline in cases/deaths, then they start rising inexorably from a new, lower base.

                    • the temporary decline will be interpreted as victory and will lead to a loosening of mitigation measures, which then increases the reproductive rate even more.

                    That was my logic above. Unfortunately it seems to be playing out.

                    Getting below 1 is a meaningless threshold when you employ temporary and unsustainable measures to get there.

                    KlausK Online
                    KlausK Online
                    Klaus
                    wrote on last edited by Klaus
                    #119

                    @Horace said

                    Getting below 1 is a meaningless threshold when you employ temporary and unsustainable measures to get there.

                    Indeed.

                    It's time to cut the BS.

                    This virus isn't going away soon. It's rather unlikely that there'll be a vaccine soon. It doesn't matter much whether the "R value" is 1.5 or 0.5. That shouldn't even be a target of the policy. The policy should be "What is the best we can do with measures we can sustain for years without everyone ending up in the psych ward and the economy in the stone age?". Every measure that isn't sustainable but is only effective if it would be sustained indefinitely is hurting, not helping.

                    Over here, everything's on the path to being re-opened. I predict that infections will rise again, but the lockdown will still not be re-instantiated, regardless of what the politicians say now. Reality will kick in.

                    Aqua LetiferA 1 Reply Last reply
                    • HoraceH Horace

                      @jon-nyc said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:

                      I can repeat my logic from above, but yesterday I was just sharing data.

                      My logic from above:

                      • our shutdown measures were insufficient to get the reproductive rate down below 1. That was based on data from Wuhan and Europe.

                      • a sharp drop in R but to a level greater than 1 will only lead to a temporary decline in cases/deaths, then they start rising inexorably from a new, lower base.

                      • the temporary decline will be interpreted as victory and will lead to a loosening of mitigation measures, which then increases the reproductive rate even more.

                      That was my logic above. Unfortunately it seems to be playing out.

                      Getting below 1 is a meaningless threshold when you employ temporary and unsustainable measures to get there.

                      jon-nycJ Online
                      jon-nycJ Online
                      jon-nyc
                      wrote on last edited by
                      #120

                      @Horace said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:

                      Getting below 1 is a meaningless threshold when you employ temporary and unsustainable measures to get there.

                      Temporary is a feature and if you get substantially below 1 there's no need to sustain because new cases will be manageable through contact tracing.

                      Only non-witches get due process.

                      • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
                      jon-nycJ L 2 Replies Last reply
                      • KlausK Klaus

                        @Horace said

                        Getting below 1 is a meaningless threshold when you employ temporary and unsustainable measures to get there.

                        Indeed.

                        It's time to cut the BS.

                        This virus isn't going away soon. It's rather unlikely that there'll be a vaccine soon. It doesn't matter much whether the "R value" is 1.5 or 0.5. That shouldn't even be a target of the policy. The policy should be "What is the best we can do with measures we can sustain for years without everyone ending up in the psych ward and the economy in the stone age?". Every measure that isn't sustainable but is only effective if it would be sustained indefinitely is hurting, not helping.

                        Over here, everything's on the path to being re-opened. I predict that infections will rise again, but the lockdown will still not be re-instantiated, regardless of what the politicians say now. Reality will kick in.

                        Aqua LetiferA Offline
                        Aqua LetiferA Offline
                        Aqua Letifer
                        wrote on last edited by
                        #121

                        @Klaus said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:

                        @Horace said

                        Getting below 1 is a meaningless threshold when you employ temporary and unsustainable measures to get there.

                        Indeed.

                        It's time to cut the BS.

                        This virus isn't going away soon. It's rather unlikely that there'll be a vaccine soon. It doesn't matter much whether the "R value" is 1.5 or 0.5. That shouldn't even be a target of the policy. The policy should be "What is the best we can do with measures we can sustain for years without everyone ending up in the psych ward and the economy in the stone age?". Every measure that isn't sustainable but is only effective if it would be sustained indefinitely is hurting, not helping.

                        Over here, everything's on the path to being re-opened. I predict that infections will rise again, but the lockdown will still not be re-instantiated, regardless of what the politicians say now. Reality will kick in.

                        So you're in favor of basically nothing, then?

                        Please love yourself.

                        KlausK 1 Reply Last reply
                        • Aqua LetiferA Aqua Letifer

                          @Klaus said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:

                          @Horace said

                          Getting below 1 is a meaningless threshold when you employ temporary and unsustainable measures to get there.

                          Indeed.

                          It's time to cut the BS.

                          This virus isn't going away soon. It's rather unlikely that there'll be a vaccine soon. It doesn't matter much whether the "R value" is 1.5 or 0.5. That shouldn't even be a target of the policy. The policy should be "What is the best we can do with measures we can sustain for years without everyone ending up in the psych ward and the economy in the stone age?". Every measure that isn't sustainable but is only effective if it would be sustained indefinitely is hurting, not helping.

                          Over here, everything's on the path to being re-opened. I predict that infections will rise again, but the lockdown will still not be re-instantiated, regardless of what the politicians say now. Reality will kick in.

                          So you're in favor of basically nothing, then?

                          KlausK Online
                          KlausK Online
                          Klaus
                          wrote on last edited by
                          #122

                          @Aqua-Letifer said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:

                          @Klaus said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:

                          @Horace said

                          Getting below 1 is a meaningless threshold when you employ temporary and unsustainable measures to get there.

                          Indeed.

                          It's time to cut the BS.

                          This virus isn't going away soon. It's rather unlikely that there'll be a vaccine soon. It doesn't matter much whether the "R value" is 1.5 or 0.5. That shouldn't even be a target of the policy. The policy should be "What is the best we can do with measures we can sustain for years without everyone ending up in the psych ward and the economy in the stone age?". Every measure that isn't sustainable but is only effective if it would be sustained indefinitely is hurting, not helping.

                          Over here, everything's on the path to being re-opened. I predict that infections will rise again, but the lockdown will still not be re-instantiated, regardless of what the politicians say now. Reality will kick in.

                          So you're in favor of basically nothing, then?

                          No. I'm in favor of "What is the best we can do with measures we can sustain for years without everyone ending up in the psych ward and the economy in the stone age?". I said that pretty unambigously a few lines above, hence I have no idea why you choose to misrepresent what I said.

                          1 Reply Last reply
                          • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

                            @Horace said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:

                            Getting below 1 is a meaningless threshold when you employ temporary and unsustainable measures to get there.

                            Temporary is a feature and if you get substantially below 1 there's no need to sustain because new cases will be manageable through contact tracing.

                            jon-nycJ Online
                            jon-nycJ Online
                            jon-nyc
                            wrote on last edited by jon-nyc
                            #123

                            @jon-nyc said in [In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak]> > > >

                            Temporary is a feature and if you get substantially below 1 there's no need to sustain because new cases will be manageable through contact tracing.

                            Wuhan supposedly got their R down to about 0.3. At that number you could go from 10k new cases a day down to under 100 in just 4 weeks. We've been locked down for about 6 weeks now.

                            Only non-witches get due process.

                            • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
                            CopperC 1 Reply Last reply
                            • Aqua LetiferA Offline
                              Aqua LetiferA Offline
                              Aqua Letifer
                              wrote on last edited by
                              #124

                              Because of your "time to cut the BS," "let reality back in" side comments. Sounds like you're pissed over the current response, which involves following a comprehensive reopening plan in the interest of public health. So if you think that's BS, I'm only left to conclude you think public health preservation is ridiculous.

                              Please love yourself.

                              KlausK 1 Reply Last reply
                              • Aqua LetiferA Aqua Letifer

                                Because of your "time to cut the BS," "let reality back in" side comments. Sounds like you're pissed over the current response, which involves following a comprehensive reopening plan in the interest of public health. So if you think that's BS, I'm only left to conclude you think public health preservation is ridiculous.

                                KlausK Online
                                KlausK Online
                                Klaus
                                wrote on last edited by
                                #125

                                @Aqua-Letifer said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:

                                So if you think that's BS, I'm only left to conclude you think public health preservation is ridiculous.

                                No, the BS part is to pretend that the lockdown stuff can be continued indefinitely until some number targets have been reached. The part about pretending that we can somehow wipe out a virus by social distancing. The part about anyone trying to find a balance between the different forces, values and costs of different strategies being evil.

                                1 Reply Last reply
                                • Aqua LetiferA Offline
                                  Aqua LetiferA Offline
                                  Aqua Letifer
                                  wrote on last edited by
                                  #126

                                  Fair enough but really, I think a lot of it's going to fade away on its own.

                                  Please love yourself.

                                  1 Reply Last reply
                                  • Aqua LetiferA Aqua Letifer

                                    @Loki said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:

                                    @Aqua-Letifer said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:

                                    @Loki said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:

                                    Keeping us in lockdown makes sense if waiting helps but waiting for how long and for what? Let’s make some assumptions about what might come along and put it in that model to see what is the optimal strategy for opening vs lockdown. Lockdown is certain death if it doesn’t end.

                                    Our state has a very clear plan for this—we have been told many times since about 10 days ago exactly how and when the lockdown is going to be phased out. Most states that are in the midst of rising cases either have a similar plan, or are actively developing one in conjunction with the NGA. "There's no plan to reopen, we can't keep doing this forever" is a very weak argument at this point.

                                    Okay so we start back up spreading from a lower base of active cases, what does twhat really get us- longer ramp up to catastrophe again? Or do you think having less cases means it won’t spread?

                                    And the latest news is the anti viral is not so effective and Covid spreads even by merely talking and summer makes no diff...

                                    Adequate hospital capacity drastically reduces the mortality rate. That's why the entire reopening plan in this state centers on waiting until the inevitable influx of cases doesn't overwhelm hospitals, and getting serious safety measures in place so that the acceleration of cases doesn't screw us. Once hospitals hit capacity again, they're going to tighten back up.

                                    No that's not a perfect solution but this is a state plan to combat a global pandemic, with an emphasis on saving lives. If you think the plan is crap, write to the governor's office. I'm sure after hearing so they'll turn the ship right around.

                                    L Offline
                                    L Offline
                                    Loki
                                    wrote on last edited by
                                    #127

                                    @Aqua-Letifer said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:

                                    @Loki said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:

                                    @Aqua-Letifer said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:

                                    @Loki said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:

                                    Keeping us in lockdown makes sense if waiting helps but waiting for how long and for what? Let’s make some assumptions about what might come along and put it in that model to see what is the optimal strategy for opening vs lockdown. Lockdown is certain death if it doesn’t end.

                                    Our state has a very clear plan for this—we have been told many times since about 10 days ago exactly how and when the lockdown is going to be phased out. Most states that are in the midst of rising cases either have a similar plan, or are actively developing one in conjunction with the NGA. "There's no plan to reopen, we can't keep doing this forever" is a very weak argument at this point.

                                    Okay so we start back up spreading from a lower base of active cases, what does twhat really get us- longer ramp up to catastrophe again? Or do you think having less cases means it won’t spread?

                                    And the latest news is the anti viral is not so effective and Covid spreads even by merely talking and summer makes no diff...

                                    Adequate hospital capacity drastically reduces the mortality rate. That's why the entire reopening plan in this state centers on waiting until the inevitable influx of cases doesn't overwhelm hospitals, and getting serious safety measures in place so that the acceleration of cases doesn't screw us. Once hospitals hit capacity again, they're going to tighten back up.

                                    No that's not a perfect solution but this is a state plan to combat a global pandemic, with an emphasis on saving lives. If you think the plan is crap, write to the governor's office. I'm sure after hearing so they'll turn the ship right around.

                                    We have ALWAYS had enough hospital capacity. Sure it was a crisis but I want to see where deaths were attributed to this. Of course we were right at a breaking point, but super curious where it was suggested that more died that could have been avoided.

                                    Aqua LetiferA 1 Reply Last reply
                                    • jon-nycJ Online
                                      jon-nycJ Online
                                      jon-nyc
                                      wrote on last edited by jon-nyc
                                      #128

                                      We didn’t always have it in NY but we built it in time. So far anyway.

                                      Only non-witches get due process.

                                      • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
                                      1 Reply Last reply
                                      • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

                                        @Horace said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:

                                        Getting below 1 is a meaningless threshold when you employ temporary and unsustainable measures to get there.

                                        Temporary is a feature and if you get substantially below 1 there's no need to sustain because new cases will be manageable through contact tracing.

                                        L Offline
                                        L Offline
                                        Loki
                                        wrote on last edited by
                                        #129

                                        @jon-nyc said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:

                                        @Horace said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:

                                        Getting below 1 is a meaningless threshold when you employ temporary and unsustainable measures to get there.

                                        Temporary is a feature and if you get substantially below 1 there's no need to sustain because new cases will be manageable through contact tracing.

                                        Well that’s interesting. I want to know how contact tracing will work in the US. No way I predict an Apple/ google initiative will get anywhere near the opt in necessary to make viable. That’s like saying hydro chloroquine will work.

                                        HoraceH jon-nycJ 2 Replies Last reply
                                        • L Loki

                                          @Aqua-Letifer said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:

                                          @Loki said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:

                                          @Aqua-Letifer said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:

                                          @Loki said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:

                                          Keeping us in lockdown makes sense if waiting helps but waiting for how long and for what? Let’s make some assumptions about what might come along and put it in that model to see what is the optimal strategy for opening vs lockdown. Lockdown is certain death if it doesn’t end.

                                          Our state has a very clear plan for this—we have been told many times since about 10 days ago exactly how and when the lockdown is going to be phased out. Most states that are in the midst of rising cases either have a similar plan, or are actively developing one in conjunction with the NGA. "There's no plan to reopen, we can't keep doing this forever" is a very weak argument at this point.

                                          Okay so we start back up spreading from a lower base of active cases, what does twhat really get us- longer ramp up to catastrophe again? Or do you think having less cases means it won’t spread?

                                          And the latest news is the anti viral is not so effective and Covid spreads even by merely talking and summer makes no diff...

                                          Adequate hospital capacity drastically reduces the mortality rate. That's why the entire reopening plan in this state centers on waiting until the inevitable influx of cases doesn't overwhelm hospitals, and getting serious safety measures in place so that the acceleration of cases doesn't screw us. Once hospitals hit capacity again, they're going to tighten back up.

                                          No that's not a perfect solution but this is a state plan to combat a global pandemic, with an emphasis on saving lives. If you think the plan is crap, write to the governor's office. I'm sure after hearing so they'll turn the ship right around.

                                          We have ALWAYS had enough hospital capacity. Sure it was a crisis but I want to see where deaths were attributed to this. Of course we were right at a breaking point, but super curious where it was suggested that more died that could have been avoided.

                                          Aqua LetiferA Offline
                                          Aqua LetiferA Offline
                                          Aqua Letifer
                                          wrote on last edited by
                                          #130

                                          @Loki said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:

                                          @Aqua-Letifer said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:

                                          @Loki said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:

                                          @Aqua-Letifer said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:

                                          @Loki said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:

                                          Keeping us in lockdown makes sense if waiting helps but waiting for how long and for what? Let’s make some assumptions about what might come along and put it in that model to see what is the optimal strategy for opening vs lockdown. Lockdown is certain death if it doesn’t end.

                                          Our state has a very clear plan for this—we have been told many times since about 10 days ago exactly how and when the lockdown is going to be phased out. Most states that are in the midst of rising cases either have a similar plan, or are actively developing one in conjunction with the NGA. "There's no plan to reopen, we can't keep doing this forever" is a very weak argument at this point.

                                          Okay so we start back up spreading from a lower base of active cases, what does twhat really get us- longer ramp up to catastrophe again? Or do you think having less cases means it won’t spread?

                                          And the latest news is the anti viral is not so effective and Covid spreads even by merely talking and summer makes no diff...

                                          Adequate hospital capacity drastically reduces the mortality rate. That's why the entire reopening plan in this state centers on waiting until the inevitable influx of cases doesn't overwhelm hospitals, and getting serious safety measures in place so that the acceleration of cases doesn't screw us. Once hospitals hit capacity again, they're going to tighten back up.

                                          No that's not a perfect solution but this is a state plan to combat a global pandemic, with an emphasis on saving lives. If you think the plan is crap, write to the governor's office. I'm sure after hearing so they'll turn the ship right around.

                                          We have ALWAYS had enough hospital capacity. Sure it was a crisis but I want to see where deaths were attributed to this. Of course we were right at a breaking point, but super curious where it was suggested that more died that could have been avoided.

                                          The whole point is that we should be smart enough not to have to let a tragedy happen so that we can understand that it's possible.

                                          Please love yourself.

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