In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak
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I became a commercial pilot and flight instructor and bought a few planes. I taught for about 10 years. Last year I moved to southern Virginia and it has been over a year now since I've flown. I might still get hooked back up. I have kept my instructor certificate and medical current.
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There was a recent Rand report which tried to look at the "strength" of a lock down versus the number of deaths and versus the economic impact.
Obvious, that the higher strength the lockdown, the less deaths, but more economic impact.
I believe that they were using a economic impact of one life = $10 MM USD.
The conclusion was that there was a pretty bad payback for decreasing teh strength of the lockdown. In other words, the decrease in economic impact was not greater than the increased loss of life.
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@Jeffrey said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
Yes. We now have three.
I think the third had been born before I last saw you, which I'm guessing was 2012, I want to say your middle boy came with you to my son's party at the science place on Atlantic ave.
Seems like a long time ago!
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What is your opinion on the reopen stuff? Overheard from a dr I know “Open for business means the ICU has room for you.” On the other hand, the current shutdown is not sustainable economically or psychologically for most people for much longer.
I have no specific answers to any question.
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What is your take on the open up stuff? I suspect actual mobility among the population is not that different. Under shelter in place some people push the edges, under open for business many stay home.
@Jeffrey said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
What is your take on the open up stuff? I suspect actual mobility among the population is not that different. Under shelter in place some people push the edges, under open for business many stay home.
It's an interesting question, untangling how much social distancing is voluntary and would happen without top down rules.
A few thoughts, that don't necessarily cohere:
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I think the zeitgeist is a big driver independently of rules. I posted google data showing a surprising amount of conformity in mobility reduction across states that rolled out their rules at slightly different times.
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I think that goes both ways, right now there seems to be a sense of relief even in NYC that the worst is behind us, and people are relaxing their behaviors more. Yet the rules haven't changed, as you know. (curious if you've personally seen this, I have second hand reports from friends about this weekend for example, and have read numerous reports on twitter).
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there's obviously a lot of variation across individuals. I don't know how this will play out in practice. You could imagine a best case scenario where near-universal mask usage more than makes up for our other social distancing sins, and we do ok.
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You can also imagine a 'worst of both worlds' scenario where the number of people who are not compliant with (non-coercive) measures is large enough to be epidemiologically significant but not large enough to be economically significant. IOW (pulling numbers out of my ass) say 1 in 5 people act like its 2019. That might be enough to jack the effective R up substantially but it still doesn't fill the restaurants or the airlines, etc. Possibly some light version of this is happening in Sweden??? Too early to tell.
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Hong Kong is interesting. High density, subways, near Wuhan. 5 fatalities. Near universal mask wearing. Maybe miracle technology is a mask. Just speculating.
@Jeffrey said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
Hong Kong is interesting. High density, subways, near Wuhan. 5 fatalities. Near universal mask wearing. Maybe miracle technology is a mask. Just speculating.
I could imagine universal masks making a huge difference. Still meaning to read what's been published about impact of individual social distancing measures in various environments.
Having said that, from what I've read Hong Kong has been locked up pretty tightly, has heavily restricted travel, and has a killer contact tracing system. They also have a lot of memory of the SARS experience.
But I really don't know that much about it.
