In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak
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@jon-nyc said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
I can repeat my logic from above, but yesterday I was just sharing data.
My logic from above:
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our shutdown measures were insufficient to get the reproductive rate down below 1. That was based on data from Wuhan and Europe.
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a sharp drop in R but to a level greater than 1 will only lead to a temporary decline in cases/deaths, then they start rising inexorably from a new, lower base.
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the temporary decline will be interpreted as victory and will lead to a loosening of mitigation measures, which then increases the reproductive rate even more.
That was my logic above. Unfortunately it seems to be playing out.
Getting below 1 is a meaningless threshold when you employ temporary and unsustainable measures to get there.
@Horace said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
Getting below 1 is a meaningless threshold when you employ temporary and unsustainable measures to get there.
Temporary is a feature and if you get substantially below 1 there's no need to sustain because new cases will be manageable through contact tracing.
Only non-witches get due process.
- Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
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@Horace said
Getting below 1 is a meaningless threshold when you employ temporary and unsustainable measures to get there.
Indeed.
It's time to cut the BS.
This virus isn't going away soon. It's rather unlikely that there'll be a vaccine soon. It doesn't matter much whether the "R value" is 1.5 or 0.5. That shouldn't even be a target of the policy. The policy should be "What is the best we can do with measures we can sustain for years without everyone ending up in the psych ward and the economy in the stone age?". Every measure that isn't sustainable but is only effective if it would be sustained indefinitely is hurting, not helping.
Over here, everything's on the path to being re-opened. I predict that infections will rise again, but the lockdown will still not be re-instantiated, regardless of what the politicians say now. Reality will kick in.
@Klaus said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
@Horace said
Getting below 1 is a meaningless threshold when you employ temporary and unsustainable measures to get there.
Indeed.
It's time to cut the BS.
This virus isn't going away soon. It's rather unlikely that there'll be a vaccine soon. It doesn't matter much whether the "R value" is 1.5 or 0.5. That shouldn't even be a target of the policy. The policy should be "What is the best we can do with measures we can sustain for years without everyone ending up in the psych ward and the economy in the stone age?". Every measure that isn't sustainable but is only effective if it would be sustained indefinitely is hurting, not helping.
Over here, everything's on the path to being re-opened. I predict that infections will rise again, but the lockdown will still not be re-instantiated, regardless of what the politicians say now. Reality will kick in.
So you're in favor of basically nothing, then?
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@Klaus said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
@Horace said
Getting below 1 is a meaningless threshold when you employ temporary and unsustainable measures to get there.
Indeed.
It's time to cut the BS.
This virus isn't going away soon. It's rather unlikely that there'll be a vaccine soon. It doesn't matter much whether the "R value" is 1.5 or 0.5. That shouldn't even be a target of the policy. The policy should be "What is the best we can do with measures we can sustain for years without everyone ending up in the psych ward and the economy in the stone age?". Every measure that isn't sustainable but is only effective if it would be sustained indefinitely is hurting, not helping.
Over here, everything's on the path to being re-opened. I predict that infections will rise again, but the lockdown will still not be re-instantiated, regardless of what the politicians say now. Reality will kick in.
So you're in favor of basically nothing, then?
@Aqua-Letifer said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
@Klaus said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
@Horace said
Getting below 1 is a meaningless threshold when you employ temporary and unsustainable measures to get there.
Indeed.
It's time to cut the BS.
This virus isn't going away soon. It's rather unlikely that there'll be a vaccine soon. It doesn't matter much whether the "R value" is 1.5 or 0.5. That shouldn't even be a target of the policy. The policy should be "What is the best we can do with measures we can sustain for years without everyone ending up in the psych ward and the economy in the stone age?". Every measure that isn't sustainable but is only effective if it would be sustained indefinitely is hurting, not helping.
Over here, everything's on the path to being re-opened. I predict that infections will rise again, but the lockdown will still not be re-instantiated, regardless of what the politicians say now. Reality will kick in.
So you're in favor of basically nothing, then?
No. I'm in favor of "What is the best we can do with measures we can sustain for years without everyone ending up in the psych ward and the economy in the stone age?". I said that pretty unambigously a few lines above, hence I have no idea why you choose to misrepresent what I said.
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@Horace said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
Getting below 1 is a meaningless threshold when you employ temporary and unsustainable measures to get there.
Temporary is a feature and if you get substantially below 1 there's no need to sustain because new cases will be manageable through contact tracing.
@jon-nyc said in [In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak]> > > >
Temporary is a feature and if you get substantially below 1 there's no need to sustain because new cases will be manageable through contact tracing.
Wuhan supposedly got their R down to about 0.3. At that number you could go from 10k new cases a day down to under 100 in just 4 weeks. We've been locked down for about 6 weeks now.
Only non-witches get due process.
- Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
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Because of your "time to cut the BS," "let reality back in" side comments. Sounds like you're pissed over the current response, which involves following a comprehensive reopening plan in the interest of public health. So if you think that's BS, I'm only left to conclude you think public health preservation is ridiculous.
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Because of your "time to cut the BS," "let reality back in" side comments. Sounds like you're pissed over the current response, which involves following a comprehensive reopening plan in the interest of public health. So if you think that's BS, I'm only left to conclude you think public health preservation is ridiculous.
@Aqua-Letifer said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
So if you think that's BS, I'm only left to conclude you think public health preservation is ridiculous.
No, the BS part is to pretend that the lockdown stuff can be continued indefinitely until some number targets have been reached. The part about pretending that we can somehow wipe out a virus by social distancing. The part about anyone trying to find a balance between the different forces, values and costs of different strategies being evil.
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Fair enough but really, I think a lot of it's going to fade away on its own.
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@Loki said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
@Aqua-Letifer said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
@Loki said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
Keeping us in lockdown makes sense if waiting helps but waiting for how long and for what? Let’s make some assumptions about what might come along and put it in that model to see what is the optimal strategy for opening vs lockdown. Lockdown is certain death if it doesn’t end.
Our state has a very clear plan for this—we have been told many times since about 10 days ago exactly how and when the lockdown is going to be phased out. Most states that are in the midst of rising cases either have a similar plan, or are actively developing one in conjunction with the NGA. "There's no plan to reopen, we can't keep doing this forever" is a very weak argument at this point.
Okay so we start back up spreading from a lower base of active cases, what does twhat really get us- longer ramp up to catastrophe again? Or do you think having less cases means it won’t spread?
And the latest news is the anti viral is not so effective and Covid spreads even by merely talking and summer makes no diff...
Adequate hospital capacity drastically reduces the mortality rate. That's why the entire reopening plan in this state centers on waiting until the inevitable influx of cases doesn't overwhelm hospitals, and getting serious safety measures in place so that the acceleration of cases doesn't screw us. Once hospitals hit capacity again, they're going to tighten back up.
No that's not a perfect solution but this is a state plan to combat a global pandemic, with an emphasis on saving lives. If you think the plan is crap, write to the governor's office. I'm sure after hearing so they'll turn the ship right around.
@Aqua-Letifer said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
@Loki said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
@Aqua-Letifer said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
@Loki said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
Keeping us in lockdown makes sense if waiting helps but waiting for how long and for what? Let’s make some assumptions about what might come along and put it in that model to see what is the optimal strategy for opening vs lockdown. Lockdown is certain death if it doesn’t end.
Our state has a very clear plan for this—we have been told many times since about 10 days ago exactly how and when the lockdown is going to be phased out. Most states that are in the midst of rising cases either have a similar plan, or are actively developing one in conjunction with the NGA. "There's no plan to reopen, we can't keep doing this forever" is a very weak argument at this point.
Okay so we start back up spreading from a lower base of active cases, what does twhat really get us- longer ramp up to catastrophe again? Or do you think having less cases means it won’t spread?
And the latest news is the anti viral is not so effective and Covid spreads even by merely talking and summer makes no diff...
Adequate hospital capacity drastically reduces the mortality rate. That's why the entire reopening plan in this state centers on waiting until the inevitable influx of cases doesn't overwhelm hospitals, and getting serious safety measures in place so that the acceleration of cases doesn't screw us. Once hospitals hit capacity again, they're going to tighten back up.
No that's not a perfect solution but this is a state plan to combat a global pandemic, with an emphasis on saving lives. If you think the plan is crap, write to the governor's office. I'm sure after hearing so they'll turn the ship right around.
We have ALWAYS had enough hospital capacity. Sure it was a crisis but I want to see where deaths were attributed to this. Of course we were right at a breaking point, but super curious where it was suggested that more died that could have been avoided.
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@Horace said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
Getting below 1 is a meaningless threshold when you employ temporary and unsustainable measures to get there.
Temporary is a feature and if you get substantially below 1 there's no need to sustain because new cases will be manageable through contact tracing.
@jon-nyc said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
@Horace said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
Getting below 1 is a meaningless threshold when you employ temporary and unsustainable measures to get there.
Temporary is a feature and if you get substantially below 1 there's no need to sustain because new cases will be manageable through contact tracing.
Well that’s interesting. I want to know how contact tracing will work in the US. No way I predict an Apple/ google initiative will get anywhere near the opt in necessary to make viable. That’s like saying hydro chloroquine will work.
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@Aqua-Letifer said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
@Loki said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
@Aqua-Letifer said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
@Loki said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
Keeping us in lockdown makes sense if waiting helps but waiting for how long and for what? Let’s make some assumptions about what might come along and put it in that model to see what is the optimal strategy for opening vs lockdown. Lockdown is certain death if it doesn’t end.
Our state has a very clear plan for this—we have been told many times since about 10 days ago exactly how and when the lockdown is going to be phased out. Most states that are in the midst of rising cases either have a similar plan, or are actively developing one in conjunction with the NGA. "There's no plan to reopen, we can't keep doing this forever" is a very weak argument at this point.
Okay so we start back up spreading from a lower base of active cases, what does twhat really get us- longer ramp up to catastrophe again? Or do you think having less cases means it won’t spread?
And the latest news is the anti viral is not so effective and Covid spreads even by merely talking and summer makes no diff...
Adequate hospital capacity drastically reduces the mortality rate. That's why the entire reopening plan in this state centers on waiting until the inevitable influx of cases doesn't overwhelm hospitals, and getting serious safety measures in place so that the acceleration of cases doesn't screw us. Once hospitals hit capacity again, they're going to tighten back up.
No that's not a perfect solution but this is a state plan to combat a global pandemic, with an emphasis on saving lives. If you think the plan is crap, write to the governor's office. I'm sure after hearing so they'll turn the ship right around.
We have ALWAYS had enough hospital capacity. Sure it was a crisis but I want to see where deaths were attributed to this. Of course we were right at a breaking point, but super curious where it was suggested that more died that could have been avoided.
@Loki said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
@Aqua-Letifer said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
@Loki said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
@Aqua-Letifer said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
@Loki said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
Keeping us in lockdown makes sense if waiting helps but waiting for how long and for what? Let’s make some assumptions about what might come along and put it in that model to see what is the optimal strategy for opening vs lockdown. Lockdown is certain death if it doesn’t end.
Our state has a very clear plan for this—we have been told many times since about 10 days ago exactly how and when the lockdown is going to be phased out. Most states that are in the midst of rising cases either have a similar plan, or are actively developing one in conjunction with the NGA. "There's no plan to reopen, we can't keep doing this forever" is a very weak argument at this point.
Okay so we start back up spreading from a lower base of active cases, what does twhat really get us- longer ramp up to catastrophe again? Or do you think having less cases means it won’t spread?
And the latest news is the anti viral is not so effective and Covid spreads even by merely talking and summer makes no diff...
Adequate hospital capacity drastically reduces the mortality rate. That's why the entire reopening plan in this state centers on waiting until the inevitable influx of cases doesn't overwhelm hospitals, and getting serious safety measures in place so that the acceleration of cases doesn't screw us. Once hospitals hit capacity again, they're going to tighten back up.
No that's not a perfect solution but this is a state plan to combat a global pandemic, with an emphasis on saving lives. If you think the plan is crap, write to the governor's office. I'm sure after hearing so they'll turn the ship right around.
We have ALWAYS had enough hospital capacity. Sure it was a crisis but I want to see where deaths were attributed to this. Of course we were right at a breaking point, but super curious where it was suggested that more died that could have been avoided.
The whole point is that we should be smart enough not to have to let a tragedy happen so that we can understand that it's possible.
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@jon-nyc said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
@Horace said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
Getting below 1 is a meaningless threshold when you employ temporary and unsustainable measures to get there.
Temporary is a feature and if you get substantially below 1 there's no need to sustain because new cases will be manageable through contact tracing.
Well that’s interesting. I want to know how contact tracing will work in the US. No way I predict an Apple/ google initiative will get anywhere near the opt in necessary to make viable. That’s like saying hydro chloroquine will work.
@Loki said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
@jon-nyc said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
@Horace said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
Getting below 1 is a meaningless threshold when you employ temporary and unsustainable measures to get there.
Temporary is a feature and if you get substantially below 1 there's no need to sustain because new cases will be manageable through contact tracing.
Well that’s interesting. I want to know how contact tracing will work in the US. No way I predict an Apple/ google initiative will get anywhere near the opt in necessary to make viable. That’s like saying hydro chloroquine will work.
Yes it will be interesting to watch America do contact tracing in the next couple months.
Education is extremely important.
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@jon-nyc said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
@Horace said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
Getting below 1 is a meaningless threshold when you employ temporary and unsustainable measures to get there.
Temporary is a feature and if you get substantially below 1 there's no need to sustain because new cases will be manageable through contact tracing.
Well that’s interesting. I want to know how contact tracing will work in the US. No way I predict an Apple/ google initiative will get anywhere near the opt in necessary to make viable. That’s like saying hydro chloroquine will work.
@Loki said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
Well that’s interesting. I want to know how contact tracing will work in the US. No way I predict an Apple/ google initiative will get anywhere near the opt in necessary to make viable. That’s like saying hydro chloroquine will work.
Bad analogy, hydrochloroquine's wasn't a political failure.
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@Loki said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
@jon-nyc said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
@Horace said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
Getting below 1 is a meaningless threshold when you employ temporary and unsustainable measures to get there.
Temporary is a feature and if you get substantially below 1 there's no need to sustain because new cases will be manageable through contact tracing.
Well that’s interesting. I want to know how contact tracing will work in the US. No way I predict an Apple/ google initiative will get anywhere near the opt in necessary to make viable. That’s like saying hydro chloroquine will work.
Yes it will be interesting to watch America do contact tracing in the next couple months.
@Horace said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
Yes it will be interesting to watch America do contact tracing in the next couple months.
I don't think it will. Too many Coppers and Candices here. We'll get the pandemic we deserve.
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@jon-nyc said in [In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak]> > > >
Temporary is a feature and if you get substantially below 1 there's no need to sustain because new cases will be manageable through contact tracing.
Wuhan supposedly got their R down to about 0.3. At that number you could go from 10k new cases a day down to under 100 in just 4 weeks. We've been locked down for about 6 weeks now.
@jon-nyc said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
@jon-nyc said in [In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak]> > > >
We've been locked down for about 6 weeks now.
Some of us have been locked down.
Most have just had a few snow days playing video games.
After that they went right back to costco, walmart and lowes.
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For those who are sincerely interested in the letter R here is an interesting link, although I certainly don’t understand the math.
https://mrc-ide.github.io/covid19-short-term-forecasts/#content
For those who are not interested in r, just move along to s,t, u v,w....etc.
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I must admit I have no idea what your prediction was. My frame was hospital utilization and deaths i.e the crisis in NYC. Obviously you are talking about something else.
The real key is if summer has impact. At one point Fauci expressed confidence it would die down with warmth and come back in the fall. I have no idea what the current thought on a pause due to weather is.
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@jon-nyc said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
My logic from above:
-
our shutdown measures were insufficient to get the reproductive rate down below 1. That was based on data from Wuhan and Europe.
-
a sharp drop in R but to a level greater than 1 will only lead to a temporary decline in cases/deaths, then they start rising inexorably from a new, lower base.
-
the temporary decline will be interpreted as victory and will lead to a loosening of mitigation measures, which then increases the reproductive rate even more.
That was my logic above. Unfortunately it seems to be playing out.
Another specific prediction was:
When we look back from, say, the end of the year, we will not see April as the month with the most cases or the most deaths.
All this was stated in the second week of April.
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