The Iran War (was Nuclear Program) thread

[jon-nyc]

This is being reported as the 10 point plan forming the basis of the ceasefire. Looks like a big L for the US.

[Renauda]

@jon-nyc said:

This is being reported as the 10 point plan forming the basis of the ceasefire. Looks like a big L for the US.

I think Trump’s friend Putin and his Foreign Minister, Lavrov wrote those points for the Iranians.

[Mik]

Well, it may be better than targeting infrastructure that serves the population.

[jon-nyc]

120-140 ships a day traverse the strait per day in peacetime. If Iran gets to charge each of them $2MM, that’s a billion dollars every four days.

Makes Obama’s palates of cash look like chump change.

[kluurs]

@jon-nyc said:

120-140 ships a day traverse the strait per day in peacetime. If Iran gets to charge each of them $2MM, that’s a billion dollars every four days.

Makes Obama’s palates of cash look like chump change.

Both Russia and Iran are making more money from the sale of oil thanks to the great leader’s efforts.

[jon-nyc]

I suppose there’s still the possibility that the deal improves but it’s hard to imagine Iran making major concessions post ceasefire that it wasn’t willing to make with bombs raining down.

[Mik]

An interesting review of a book on imperial overreach.

https://claremontreviewofbooks.com/the-lamps-are-going-out/?utm_content=375012188&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook&hss_channel=fbp-164771506031

[Renauda]

@Mik

Westad’s book on the Cold War is one of the best I have ever read - and I have read at least a dozen or more on the subject over the years.

This latest one on imperial overreach is now added to my running list of must reads.

[Mik]

It's fascinating to see how events in history are linked and caused by prior events, and to examine the similarities.

[blondie]

I’m trying to wrap my head around this $2M per ship thing.

[Renauda]

@blondie said:

I’m trying to wrap my head around this $2M per ship thing.

You’re not alone. It is an international waterway open for all commercial traffic. No one state along its shoreline can claim control or exact a toll. Iran’s present claim is groundless and contrary to maritime law. It alone could bring this ceasefire to an abrupt and violent end at the blink of an eye.

[89th]

What an odd situation. Hard to imagine Iran will just stop fighting. They had another country bomb the crap out of them and kill many of their leaders. But maybe they’ll just be fine with making extra money off of maritime traffic.

Would be the first time Trump has ever lost. Aside from every business and political venture he’s been apart of.

[Mik]

Wasn't that Iran's proposal? Can't imagine that will stand. They don't own international waters.

[Renauda]

Exactly. And if they were to try to enforce it, that alone would amount to a justifiable casus belli.

[Mik]

Maybe Europe is encouraging that for an excuse to appease Trump and get involved.

[jon-nyc]

Trump floats the idea of the US and Iran forming a ‘joint venture’ to collect the tolls together.

“We’re thinking of doing it as a joint venture,” the president told Karl, who shared Trump’s response on the social platform X. “It’s a way of securing it — also securing it from lots of other people. It’s a beautiful thing.”

https://thehill.com/policy/international/5821343-trump-us-iran-ceasefire-deal-joint-venture-strait-of-hormuz/

[Mik]

There’s just no idea too inappropriate.

[Renauda]

Inappropriate and detached from all reality.

[AndyD]

Fuck tolls.
These are international shipping waters.
I'd rather have a huge area of Iranian land cleared to the east of the waters and made uninhabitable.

And keep bombing the Iranian officials and army wherever they pop up.

I feel the same as the day after the Trading Towers fell or the Gazan terrorists invaded Israel.
Fuck them being in control of world shipping.

Trump's started this war, he'd better have the guts to finish it.
Not that the UK or USA actually need much oil from the area, but I feel very strongly about this defence of the free seas.

[jon-nyc]

@AndyD said:

Trump's started this war, he'd better have the guts to finish it.

I think that’s ultimately the problem. Bibi, for his own reasons, convinced Trump it would be easy and quick. Trump signed up for easy and quick and the pentagons plans for reopening the straight are probably complicated and long.

Not that the UK or USA actually need much oil from the area, but I feel very strongly about this defence of the free seas.

“Energy independence” is something of a myth (except in a blockade scenario). It’s not like we get to live in a world of $40 oil when the strait is closed. And the fact that a few American oil companies are raking it in is small consolation to your average Joe paying $5 at the gas pump.