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The New Coffee Room

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  3. Trumpenomics

Trumpenomics

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  • JollyJ Offline
    JollyJ Offline
    Jolly
    wrote last edited by
    #638

    Ol' Gretchen wasn't in the Oval Office this week, just to suck Trump's dick.

    “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

    Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

    1 Reply Last reply
    • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

      @LuFins-Dad said in Trumpenomics:

      This is starting to feel a lot like the 2008 panic and the 2020 COVID panic. I kinda think there is more than a bit of overreaction to this.

      What I don’t get is how this is consistent with your comment from 2 weeks ago or so about OMB and CBO underestimating the negative effects of tax increases. This is still the largest tax increase of your lifetime or mine.

      LuFins DadL Offline
      LuFins DadL Offline
      LuFins Dad
      wrote last edited by
      #639

      @jon-nyc said in Trumpenomics:

      @LuFins-Dad said in Trumpenomics:

      This is starting to feel a lot like the 2008 panic and the 2020 COVID panic. I kinda think there is more than a bit of overreaction to this.

      What I don’t get is how this is consistent with your comment from 2 weeks ago or so about OMB and CBO underestimating the negative effects of tax increases. This is still the largest tax increase of your lifetime or mine.

      1. My comments aimed at the CBO are specific about the validity on their long term projections. I specifically stated that their 10 year projections are crap and always have been. Please explain to me how that’s changed?

      2. I’ve been pretty outspoken regarding the tariffs and being firmly against them. I’ve also always been very vocal about protectionism. I am absolutely dead set against it.But i also am not into panicking , especially when I don’t honestly believe DJT actually intends to use them beyond leverage. It’s Nixon’s madman theory applied to economics. He has to make EVERYBODY believe he’s willing to burn down the house. This is all a big show… The market’s going to be chaos for a few weeks and months but this shit he’s pulling is straight out of that hod awful book. He’s playing everybody that’s getting panicked.

      The Brad

      1 Reply Last reply
      • LuFins DadL Offline
        LuFins DadL Offline
        LuFins Dad
        wrote last edited by
        #640

        Now I don’t expect it to work…

        The Brad

        1 Reply Last reply
        • HoraceH Offline
          HoraceH Offline
          Horace
          wrote last edited by
          #641

          The issue is that America has to trust that Trump will respond if his economic decisions are hurting us, by numbers such as joblessness and inflation. America has to trust that he'll change course even if his ego is tied up in a battle with Xi. I'm not sure that reasonable Trump whisperers would trust that.

          Education is extremely important.

          1 Reply Last reply
          • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

            Do we have any Tata cars in the US? And who’s Geely?

            taiwan_girlT Offline
            taiwan_girlT Offline
            taiwan_girl
            wrote last edited by
            #642

            @jon-nyc said in Trumpenomics:

            Do we have any Tata cars in the US? And who’s Geely?

            Tata is out of India. A huge "chaebol". Started out in cotton (I think). Kind of like FPC group in Taiwan and Mr. Hwang (though he started out in rice), which grew from selling one product and expanded a lot.

            Geely is a big China car maker. I believe that they own Volvo now.

            KlausK 1 Reply Last reply
            • 89th8 89th

              An odd situation. The Chinese economy is under stress (real estate, demographics, etc), and they are highly reliant on exports. Then again, there are other customers to export to than the USA. On our side, the USA is highly reliant on Chinese exports both for end products but also supply chain for so many companies. Really it seems to be more about two power egos fighting it out than realistic long-term international trade objectives. Not sure how it plays out but it will be interesting to see in a year or so how it compares to December 2024 numbers.

              taiwan_girlT Offline
              taiwan_girlT Offline
              taiwan_girl
              wrote last edited by
              #643

              @89th said in Trumpenomics:

              The Chinese economy is under stress (real estate, demographics, etc), and they are highly reliant on exports. Then again, there are other customers to export to than the USA.

              This. I know some people in the oil/petrochemical business and the word is that the Chinese are dropping the price of petrochemicals as there is lessening internal demand in China and possible loss of any US market (for plastics for example which come from p-xylene). So, they are ramping up exports to countries that they normally do not export to.

              Im sure that other products will follow this.

              1 Reply Last reply
              • taiwan_girlT taiwan_girl

                @jon-nyc said in Trumpenomics:

                Do we have any Tata cars in the US? And who’s Geely?

                Tata is out of India. A huge "chaebol". Started out in cotton (I think). Kind of like FPC group in Taiwan and Mr. Hwang (though he started out in rice), which grew from selling one product and expanded a lot.

                Geely is a big China car maker. I believe that they own Volvo now.

                KlausK Offline
                KlausK Offline
                Klaus
                wrote last edited by
                #644

                @taiwan_girl said in Trumpenomics:

                @jon-nyc said in Trumpenomics:

                Do we have any Tata cars in the US? And who’s Geely?

                Tata is out of India. A huge "chaebol". Started out in cotton (I think). Kind of like FPC group in Taiwan and Mr. Hwang (though he started out in rice), which grew from selling one product and expanded a lot.

                Geely is a big China car maker. I believe that they own Volvo now.

                Tata makes pretty cool off-road trucks.

                36b8157c-bc7d-4e76-b820-f4f2171b8ae1-image.png

                1 Reply Last reply
                • AxtremusA Away
                  AxtremusA Away
                  Axtremus
                  wrote last edited by
                  #645

                  IMG_7457.jpeg

                  Source: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/activity-7316152556559261696-ZT-P

                  1 Reply Last reply
                  • jon-nycJ Online
                    jon-nycJ Online
                    jon-nyc
                    wrote last edited by
                    #646

                    Im happy to see this obviously but what a way to undermine their own arguments.

                    This is the largest category of imports we have with them.

                    Only non-witches get due process.

                    • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
                    1 Reply Last reply
                    • jon-nycJ Online
                      jon-nycJ Online
                      jon-nyc
                      wrote last edited by jon-nyc
                      #647

                      Though maybe he’s only exempting them from the more recent punitive measures and not the original 25 or 35 or whatever it was.

                      Only non-witches get due process.

                      • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
                      1 Reply Last reply
                      • AxtremusA Away
                        AxtremusA Away
                        Axtremus
                        wrote last edited by
                        #648

                        @Jolly , tell me what you believe Trump is thinking by exempting smartphones, computers, and other electronics from tariffs. Thanks.

                        1 Reply Last reply
                        • A Online
                          A Online
                          AndyD
                          wrote last edited by
                          #649

                          In a week when I've heard of pretty ordinary folk losing £10-20k in shares & savings, this tariff rollercoaster has certainly had a mindset effect on me; and I'm guessing the same effect on millions of other ordinary folk in the US and China etc...

                          In my case I bought a medium sized 5-shotgun cabinet for use as a small safe.
                          Made in England.

                          1 Reply Last reply
                          • JollyJ Offline
                            JollyJ Offline
                            Jolly
                            wrote last edited by
                            #650

                            It's all imaginary money until you access it.

                            In 2008, I lost over a third of my market investments. Took it a tad over three years to recoup the losses.

                            The market goes up and it goes down. Never have all your investments in the stock market.

                            “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

                            Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

                            HoraceH 1 Reply Last reply
                            • JollyJ Jolly

                              It's all imaginary money until you access it.

                              In 2008, I lost over a third of my market investments. Took it a tad over three years to recoup the losses.

                              The market goes up and it goes down. Never have all your investments in the stock market.

                              HoraceH Offline
                              HoraceH Offline
                              Horace
                              wrote last edited by
                              #651

                              @Jolly said in Trumpenomics:

                              Never have all your investments in the stock market.

                              Buffet's advice to his wife after he passes, is to have 90% of their assets in an S&P index fund, and 10% in government bonds. So, not all in the market, but substantially all.

                              Education is extremely important.

                              1 Reply Last reply
                              • jon-nycJ Online
                                jon-nycJ Online
                                jon-nyc
                                wrote last edited by
                                #652

                                Right but Buffet’s wife’s standard of living won’t change if she takes a 30% hit in her equities.

                                When you’ve made just enough, you need to be more conservative as you age so you don’t get clobbered by a downturn that you don’t have time to recover from. When you’ve made far more than you’d ever need, you can invest for future generations (ie the long term) even if you’re 85.

                                Only non-witches get due process.

                                • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
                                1 Reply Last reply
                                • jon-nycJ Online
                                  jon-nycJ Online
                                  jon-nyc
                                  wrote last edited by
                                  #653

                                  The Wall Street editor of The Economist magazine had this to say about the exemption for Chinese made electronics:

                                  If you were running a secret strategy to undermine American manufacturing, exempting popular finished consumer goods from tariffs and keeping them in place for intermediate goods, capital goods and raw materials would be a good way to go about it.

                                  Only non-witches get due process.

                                  • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
                                  1 Reply Last reply
                                  • HoraceH Offline
                                    HoraceH Offline
                                    Horace
                                    wrote last edited by
                                    #654

                                    I guess he has those people in the bag politically anyway. The people with 401ks and a nest egg to protect, on the other hand, were probably easy swing voters.

                                    Education is extremely important.

                                    1 Reply Last reply
                                    • jon-nycJ Online
                                      jon-nycJ Online
                                      jon-nyc
                                      wrote last edited by
                                      #655

                                      Only non-witches get due process.

                                      • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
                                      jon-nycJ 1 Reply Last reply
                                      • jon-nycJ Online
                                        jon-nycJ Online
                                        jon-nyc
                                        wrote last edited by
                                        #656

                                        Another take on the asininity of the current situation

                                        Only non-witches get due process.

                                        • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
                                        1 Reply Last reply
                                        • AxtremusA Away
                                          AxtremusA Away
                                          Axtremus
                                          wrote last edited by
                                          #657

                                          Maybe we just don't understand what Trump is getting at.
                                          @Jolly, tell us what you believe Trump is thinking by exempting smartphones, computers, and other electronics from tariffs. Thanks.

                                          1 Reply Last reply
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