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The New Coffee Room

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  2. General Discussion
  3. Trumpenomics

Trumpenomics

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  • jon-nycJ Online
    jon-nycJ Online
    jon-nyc
    wrote last edited by
    #632

    Only non-witches get due process.

    • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
    1 Reply Last reply
    • 89th8 Online
      89th8 Online
      89th
      wrote last edited by
      #633

      An odd situation. The Chinese economy is under stress (real estate, demographics, etc), and they are highly reliant on exports. Then again, there are other customers to export to than the USA. On our side, the USA is highly reliant on Chinese exports both for end products but also supply chain for so many companies. Really it seems to be more about two power egos fighting it out than realistic long-term international trade objectives. Not sure how it plays out but it will be interesting to see in a year or so how it compares to December 2024 numbers.

      taiwan_girlT 1 Reply Last reply
      • jon-nycJ Online
        jon-nycJ Online
        jon-nyc
        wrote last edited by
        #634

        This is definitely a bad time for China to have a trade war. The question is how much pain is he willing to subject his peasantry to in order to save face for China and himself.

        Only non-witches get due process.

        • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
        1 Reply Last reply
        • LuFins DadL LuFins Dad

          This is starting to feel a lot like the 2008 panic and the 2020 COVID panic. I kinda think there is more than a bit of overreaction to this.

          I think I’ve been blunt, I despise American Labor Unions. I think that they served a needed and valuable function 80 years ago, but are no longer needed, and have actually harmed American manufacturing extensively over the past 50 years. I also despise protectionist policies that go hand-in-hand with Union goals.

          That being said, the response seems over the top. A little too much overreaction. Personally, I’ll tighten the belt a little (very glad the last tuition check has been cashed for Lucas) and will invest a little more aggressively over the next few weeks…

          jon-nycJ Online
          jon-nycJ Online
          jon-nyc
          wrote last edited by
          #635

          @LuFins-Dad said in Trumpenomics:

          This is starting to feel a lot like the 2008 panic and the 2020 COVID panic. I kinda think there is more than a bit of overreaction to this.

          What I don’t get is how this is consistent with your comment from 2 weeks ago or so about OMB and CBO underestimating the negative effects of tax increases. This is still the largest tax increase of your lifetime or mine.

          Only non-witches get due process.

          • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
          LuFins DadL 1 Reply Last reply
          • JollyJ Offline
            JollyJ Offline
            Jolly
            wrote last edited by
            #636

            If we do not consider Hong Kong a separate entity from China, the U.S. accounts for between 15-20% of Chinese exports.

            “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

            Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

            Doctor PhibesD 1 Reply Last reply
            • JollyJ Jolly

              If we do not consider Hong Kong a separate entity from China, the U.S. accounts for between 15-20% of Chinese exports.

              Doctor PhibesD Offline
              Doctor PhibesD Offline
              Doctor Phibes
              wrote last edited by
              #637

              @Jolly said in Trumpenomics:

              If we do not consider Hong Kong a separate entity from China, the U.S. accounts for between 15-20% of Chinese exports.

              It's clearly extremely important for China. The question is how much pain the populace is willing to put up with in fighting a trade war compared to the American electorate.

              I was only joking

              1 Reply Last reply
              • JollyJ Offline
                JollyJ Offline
                Jolly
                wrote last edited by
                #638

                Ol' Gretchen wasn't in the Oval Office this week, just to suck Trump's dick.

                “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

                Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

                1 Reply Last reply
                • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

                  @LuFins-Dad said in Trumpenomics:

                  This is starting to feel a lot like the 2008 panic and the 2020 COVID panic. I kinda think there is more than a bit of overreaction to this.

                  What I don’t get is how this is consistent with your comment from 2 weeks ago or so about OMB and CBO underestimating the negative effects of tax increases. This is still the largest tax increase of your lifetime or mine.

                  LuFins DadL Offline
                  LuFins DadL Offline
                  LuFins Dad
                  wrote last edited by
                  #639

                  @jon-nyc said in Trumpenomics:

                  @LuFins-Dad said in Trumpenomics:

                  This is starting to feel a lot like the 2008 panic and the 2020 COVID panic. I kinda think there is more than a bit of overreaction to this.

                  What I don’t get is how this is consistent with your comment from 2 weeks ago or so about OMB and CBO underestimating the negative effects of tax increases. This is still the largest tax increase of your lifetime or mine.

                  1. My comments aimed at the CBO are specific about the validity on their long term projections. I specifically stated that their 10 year projections are crap and always have been. Please explain to me how that’s changed?

                  2. I’ve been pretty outspoken regarding the tariffs and being firmly against them. I’ve also always been very vocal about protectionism. I am absolutely dead set against it.But i also am not into panicking , especially when I don’t honestly believe DJT actually intends to use them beyond leverage. It’s Nixon’s madman theory applied to economics. He has to make EVERYBODY believe he’s willing to burn down the house. This is all a big show… The market’s going to be chaos for a few weeks and months but this shit he’s pulling is straight out of that hod awful book. He’s playing everybody that’s getting panicked.

                  The Brad

                  1 Reply Last reply
                  • LuFins DadL Offline
                    LuFins DadL Offline
                    LuFins Dad
                    wrote last edited by
                    #640

                    Now I don’t expect it to work…

                    The Brad

                    1 Reply Last reply
                    • HoraceH Offline
                      HoraceH Offline
                      Horace
                      wrote last edited by
                      #641

                      The issue is that America has to trust that Trump will respond if his economic decisions are hurting us, by numbers such as joblessness and inflation. America has to trust that he'll change course even if his ego is tied up in a battle with Xi. I'm not sure that reasonable Trump whisperers would trust that.

                      Education is extremely important.

                      1 Reply Last reply
                      • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

                        Do we have any Tata cars in the US? And who’s Geely?

                        taiwan_girlT Offline
                        taiwan_girlT Offline
                        taiwan_girl
                        wrote last edited by
                        #642

                        @jon-nyc said in Trumpenomics:

                        Do we have any Tata cars in the US? And who’s Geely?

                        Tata is out of India. A huge "chaebol". Started out in cotton (I think). Kind of like FPC group in Taiwan and Mr. Hwang (though he started out in rice), which grew from selling one product and expanded a lot.

                        Geely is a big China car maker. I believe that they own Volvo now.

                        KlausK 1 Reply Last reply
                        • 89th8 89th

                          An odd situation. The Chinese economy is under stress (real estate, demographics, etc), and they are highly reliant on exports. Then again, there are other customers to export to than the USA. On our side, the USA is highly reliant on Chinese exports both for end products but also supply chain for so many companies. Really it seems to be more about two power egos fighting it out than realistic long-term international trade objectives. Not sure how it plays out but it will be interesting to see in a year or so how it compares to December 2024 numbers.

                          taiwan_girlT Offline
                          taiwan_girlT Offline
                          taiwan_girl
                          wrote last edited by
                          #643

                          @89th said in Trumpenomics:

                          The Chinese economy is under stress (real estate, demographics, etc), and they are highly reliant on exports. Then again, there are other customers to export to than the USA.

                          This. I know some people in the oil/petrochemical business and the word is that the Chinese are dropping the price of petrochemicals as there is lessening internal demand in China and possible loss of any US market (for plastics for example which come from p-xylene). So, they are ramping up exports to countries that they normally do not export to.

                          Im sure that other products will follow this.

                          1 Reply Last reply
                          • taiwan_girlT taiwan_girl

                            @jon-nyc said in Trumpenomics:

                            Do we have any Tata cars in the US? And who’s Geely?

                            Tata is out of India. A huge "chaebol". Started out in cotton (I think). Kind of like FPC group in Taiwan and Mr. Hwang (though he started out in rice), which grew from selling one product and expanded a lot.

                            Geely is a big China car maker. I believe that they own Volvo now.

                            KlausK Offline
                            KlausK Offline
                            Klaus
                            wrote last edited by
                            #644

                            @taiwan_girl said in Trumpenomics:

                            @jon-nyc said in Trumpenomics:

                            Do we have any Tata cars in the US? And who’s Geely?

                            Tata is out of India. A huge "chaebol". Started out in cotton (I think). Kind of like FPC group in Taiwan and Mr. Hwang (though he started out in rice), which grew from selling one product and expanded a lot.

                            Geely is a big China car maker. I believe that they own Volvo now.

                            Tata makes pretty cool off-road trucks.

                            36b8157c-bc7d-4e76-b820-f4f2171b8ae1-image.png

                            1 Reply Last reply
                            • AxtremusA Offline
                              AxtremusA Offline
                              Axtremus
                              wrote last edited by
                              #645

                              IMG_7457.jpeg

                              Source: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/activity-7316152556559261696-ZT-P

                              1 Reply Last reply
                              • jon-nycJ Online
                                jon-nycJ Online
                                jon-nyc
                                wrote last edited by
                                #646

                                Im happy to see this obviously but what a way to undermine their own arguments.

                                This is the largest category of imports we have with them.

                                Only non-witches get due process.

                                • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
                                1 Reply Last reply
                                • jon-nycJ Online
                                  jon-nycJ Online
                                  jon-nyc
                                  wrote last edited by jon-nyc
                                  #647

                                  Though maybe he’s only exempting them from the more recent punitive measures and not the original 25 or 35 or whatever it was.

                                  Only non-witches get due process.

                                  • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
                                  1 Reply Last reply
                                  • AxtremusA Offline
                                    AxtremusA Offline
                                    Axtremus
                                    wrote last edited by
                                    #648

                                    @Jolly , tell me what you believe Trump is thinking by exempting smartphones, computers, and other electronics from tariffs. Thanks.

                                    1 Reply Last reply
                                    • A Online
                                      A Online
                                      AndyD
                                      wrote last edited by
                                      #649

                                      In a week when I've heard of pretty ordinary folk losing £10-20k in shares & savings, this tariff rollercoaster has certainly had a mindset effect on me; and I'm guessing the same effect on millions of other ordinary folk in the US and China etc...

                                      In my case I bought a medium sized 5-shotgun cabinet for use as a small safe.
                                      Made in England.

                                      1 Reply Last reply
                                      • JollyJ Offline
                                        JollyJ Offline
                                        Jolly
                                        wrote last edited by
                                        #650

                                        It's all imaginary money until you access it.

                                        In 2008, I lost over a third of my market investments. Took it a tad over three years to recoup the losses.

                                        The market goes up and it goes down. Never have all your investments in the stock market.

                                        “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

                                        Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

                                        HoraceH 1 Reply Last reply
                                        • JollyJ Jolly

                                          It's all imaginary money until you access it.

                                          In 2008, I lost over a third of my market investments. Took it a tad over three years to recoup the losses.

                                          The market goes up and it goes down. Never have all your investments in the stock market.

                                          HoraceH Offline
                                          HoraceH Offline
                                          Horace
                                          wrote last edited by
                                          #651

                                          @Jolly said in Trumpenomics:

                                          Never have all your investments in the stock market.

                                          Buffet's advice to his wife after he passes, is to have 90% of their assets in an S&P index fund, and 10% in government bonds. So, not all in the market, but substantially all.

                                          Education is extremely important.

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