Trumpenomics
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An odd situation. The Chinese economy is under stress (real estate, demographics, etc), and they are highly reliant on exports. Then again, there are other customers to export to than the USA. On our side, the USA is highly reliant on Chinese exports both for end products but also supply chain for so many companies. Really it seems to be more about two power egos fighting it out than realistic long-term international trade objectives. Not sure how it plays out but it will be interesting to see in a year or so how it compares to December 2024 numbers.
@89th said in Trumpenomics:
The Chinese economy is under stress (real estate, demographics, etc), and they are highly reliant on exports. Then again, there are other customers to export to than the USA.
This. I know some people in the oil/petrochemical business and the word is that the Chinese are dropping the price of petrochemicals as there is lessening internal demand in China and possible loss of any US market (for plastics for example which come from p-xylene). So, they are ramping up exports to countries that they normally do not export to.
Im sure that other products will follow this.
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@jon-nyc said in Trumpenomics:
Do we have any Tata cars in the US? And who’s Geely?
Tata is out of India. A huge "chaebol". Started out in cotton (I think). Kind of like FPC group in Taiwan and Mr. Hwang (though he started out in rice), which grew from selling one product and expanded a lot.
Geely is a big China car maker. I believe that they own Volvo now.
@taiwan_girl said in Trumpenomics:
@jon-nyc said in Trumpenomics:
Do we have any Tata cars in the US? And who’s Geely?
Tata is out of India. A huge "chaebol". Started out in cotton (I think). Kind of like FPC group in Taiwan and Mr. Hwang (though he started out in rice), which grew from selling one product and expanded a lot.
Geely is a big China car maker. I believe that they own Volvo now.
Tata makes pretty cool off-road trucks.
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In a week when I've heard of pretty ordinary folk losing £10-20k in shares & savings, this tariff rollercoaster has certainly had a mindset effect on me; and I'm guessing the same effect on millions of other ordinary folk in the US and China etc...
In my case I bought a medium sized 5-shotgun cabinet for use as a small safe.
Made in England. -
It's all imaginary money until you access it.
In 2008, I lost over a third of my market investments. Took it a tad over three years to recoup the losses.
The market goes up and it goes down. Never have all your investments in the stock market.
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It's all imaginary money until you access it.
In 2008, I lost over a third of my market investments. Took it a tad over three years to recoup the losses.
The market goes up and it goes down. Never have all your investments in the stock market.
@Jolly said in Trumpenomics:
Never have all your investments in the stock market.
Buffet's advice to his wife after he passes, is to have 90% of their assets in an S&P index fund, and 10% in government bonds. So, not all in the market, but substantially all.
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Right but Buffet’s wife’s standard of living won’t change if she takes a 30% hit in her equities.
When you’ve made just enough, you need to be more conservative as you age so you don’t get clobbered by a downturn that you don’t have time to recover from. When you’ve made far more than you’d ever need, you can invest for future generations (ie the long term) even if you’re 85.
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The Wall Street editor of The Economist magazine had this to say about the exemption for Chinese made electronics:
If you were running a secret strategy to undermine American manufacturing, exempting popular finished consumer goods from tariffs and keeping them in place for intermediate goods, capital goods and raw materials would be a good way to go about it.
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@jon-nyc said in Trumpenomics:
ChatGPT gave me an estimate of 4-7 years to build a large aluminum smelting plant in the US at a cost of ~$5B per million tons of annual output. Oh and that assumes you have 15-20 terawatt hours per year of electricity generation nearby, enough to power about 1MM homes.
So yeah, no one’s doing that based on a tariff that might not last until June, let alone 2030.
