Trumpenomics
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From UBS:
Treasury Secretary Bessent said that they saw nothing unusual in yesterday’s market moves.
The 30yr treasury experienced the biggest increase since 1982, equities are falling, the dollar is falling, and gold hit an all time high.
Economists might consider this pattern not entirely usual.
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Op-ed praising Trump's genius tariff moves, comparing Trump to Tuft, McKinley, Ford, Reagan:
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An odd situation. The Chinese economy is under stress (real estate, demographics, etc), and they are highly reliant on exports. Then again, there are other customers to export to than the USA. On our side, the USA is highly reliant on Chinese exports both for end products but also supply chain for so many companies. Really it seems to be more about two power egos fighting it out than realistic long-term international trade objectives. Not sure how it plays out but it will be interesting to see in a year or so how it compares to December 2024 numbers.
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This is starting to feel a lot like the 2008 panic and the 2020 COVID panic. I kinda think there is more than a bit of overreaction to this.
I think I’ve been blunt, I despise American Labor Unions. I think that they served a needed and valuable function 80 years ago, but are no longer needed, and have actually harmed American manufacturing extensively over the past 50 years. I also despise protectionist policies that go hand-in-hand with Union goals.
That being said, the response seems over the top. A little too much overreaction. Personally, I’ll tighten the belt a little (very glad the last tuition check has been cashed for Lucas) and will invest a little more aggressively over the next few weeks…
@LuFins-Dad said in Trumpenomics:
This is starting to feel a lot like the 2008 panic and the 2020 COVID panic. I kinda think there is more than a bit of overreaction to this.
What I don’t get is how this is consistent with your comment from 2 weeks ago or so about OMB and CBO underestimating the negative effects of tax increases. This is still the largest tax increase of your lifetime or mine.
Only non-witches get due process.
- Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
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If we do not consider Hong Kong a separate entity from China, the U.S. accounts for between 15-20% of Chinese exports.
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If we do not consider Hong Kong a separate entity from China, the U.S. accounts for between 15-20% of Chinese exports.
@Jolly said in Trumpenomics:
If we do not consider Hong Kong a separate entity from China, the U.S. accounts for between 15-20% of Chinese exports.
It's clearly extremely important for China. The question is how much pain the populace is willing to put up with in fighting a trade war compared to the American electorate.
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@LuFins-Dad said in Trumpenomics:
This is starting to feel a lot like the 2008 panic and the 2020 COVID panic. I kinda think there is more than a bit of overreaction to this.
What I don’t get is how this is consistent with your comment from 2 weeks ago or so about OMB and CBO underestimating the negative effects of tax increases. This is still the largest tax increase of your lifetime or mine.
@jon-nyc said in Trumpenomics:
@LuFins-Dad said in Trumpenomics:
This is starting to feel a lot like the 2008 panic and the 2020 COVID panic. I kinda think there is more than a bit of overreaction to this.
What I don’t get is how this is consistent with your comment from 2 weeks ago or so about OMB and CBO underestimating the negative effects of tax increases. This is still the largest tax increase of your lifetime or mine.
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My comments aimed at the CBO are specific about the validity on their long term projections. I specifically stated that their 10 year projections are crap and always have been. Please explain to me how that’s changed?
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I’ve been pretty outspoken regarding the tariffs and being firmly against them. I’ve also always been very vocal about protectionism. I am absolutely dead set against it.But i also am not into panicking , especially when I don’t honestly believe DJT actually intends to use them beyond leverage. It’s Nixon’s madman theory applied to economics. He has to make EVERYBODY believe he’s willing to burn down the house. This is all a big show… The market’s going to be chaos for a few weeks and months but this shit he’s pulling is straight out of that hod awful book. He’s playing everybody that’s getting panicked.
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Now I don’t expect it to work…
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The issue is that America has to trust that Trump will respond if his economic decisions are hurting us, by numbers such as joblessness and inflation. America has to trust that he'll change course even if his ego is tied up in a battle with Xi. I'm not sure that reasonable Trump whisperers would trust that.
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@jon-nyc said in Trumpenomics:
Do we have any Tata cars in the US? And who’s Geely?
Tata is out of India. A huge "chaebol". Started out in cotton (I think). Kind of like FPC group in Taiwan and Mr. Hwang (though he started out in rice), which grew from selling one product and expanded a lot.
Geely is a big China car maker. I believe that they own Volvo now.
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An odd situation. The Chinese economy is under stress (real estate, demographics, etc), and they are highly reliant on exports. Then again, there are other customers to export to than the USA. On our side, the USA is highly reliant on Chinese exports both for end products but also supply chain for so many companies. Really it seems to be more about two power egos fighting it out than realistic long-term international trade objectives. Not sure how it plays out but it will be interesting to see in a year or so how it compares to December 2024 numbers.
@89th said in Trumpenomics:
The Chinese economy is under stress (real estate, demographics, etc), and they are highly reliant on exports. Then again, there are other customers to export to than the USA.
This. I know some people in the oil/petrochemical business and the word is that the Chinese are dropping the price of petrochemicals as there is lessening internal demand in China and possible loss of any US market (for plastics for example which come from p-xylene). So, they are ramping up exports to countries that they normally do not export to.
Im sure that other products will follow this.
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@jon-nyc said in Trumpenomics:
Do we have any Tata cars in the US? And who’s Geely?
Tata is out of India. A huge "chaebol". Started out in cotton (I think). Kind of like FPC group in Taiwan and Mr. Hwang (though he started out in rice), which grew from selling one product and expanded a lot.
Geely is a big China car maker. I believe that they own Volvo now.
@taiwan_girl said in Trumpenomics:
@jon-nyc said in Trumpenomics:
Do we have any Tata cars in the US? And who’s Geely?
Tata is out of India. A huge "chaebol". Started out in cotton (I think). Kind of like FPC group in Taiwan and Mr. Hwang (though he started out in rice), which grew from selling one product and expanded a lot.
Geely is a big China car maker. I believe that they own Volvo now.
Tata makes pretty cool off-road trucks.
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