We'd expect a group of people resembling the Supreme Court (a 75-year-old man, a 73-year-old man, a 69-year-old woman, and so on) to have a 50% chance of someone dying within 3.9 years.
Now look at the odds of an 80 year old male with a history of atrial fibrillation dying in the next 4 years.
SSA and other actuarial tables say expectancy is 88 years.
@jon-nyc said:
How about age, gender, and obesity and race? They’re probably underestimating Thomas’s and Sotomayor’s chances if they’re just looking at age and sex.
That's right. Isn't Sotomayor a Type 1 diabetic?