NYC is ground zero
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I'm about ready to get behind the call for martial law down here. Tracking cellphone movement, Louisiana was recently given a D- for staying in place. My parish was given a F.
I think it was a generous grade...
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https://issuesinsights.com/2020/04/07/stop-comparing-u-s-to-south-korea-on-coronavirus/
But they’ve all missed the bigger problem with this fixation on South Korea. The comparisons are utterly pointless.
Yes, South Korea has had just over 10,000 confirmed cases and only 186 deaths. Whereas the U.S. has more than 363,000 cases and nearly 11,000 deaths.
But South Korea could hardly be more unlike the United States in almost every way. Its population is 16% of the U.S. population to start with. There are 16 million more people living in California and Texas alone than all of South Korea.
It also has one of the most homogeneous populations in the world. The U.S. is one of the most diverse. This has profound implications on everything, including health care and health outcomes. South Korea’s murder rate is 0.6 per 100,000 people, compared with 5.3 in the U.S. (Is Trump to blame for that, too?)
Rather than compare a small Asian nation to the entire United States, why not compare it to individual states?
Texas, for example, has only had 7,320 cases, and just 144 deaths among its 29 million residents. It had 686 new cases and 22 new deaths on April 5. (South Korea had 183 and 3, respectively.)
California has 39 million residents. So far, it’s had less than 16,000 total cases, and 372 deaths.
Florida, with a population of 21 million, has had 236 deaths among its 13,000 cases.
Seven states in the U.S. — with a combined population of 20.2 million — have death rates as low or lower than South Korea’s.
Comparing the entire U.S. to South Korea also fails to account for the fact that New York alone is responsible for 36% of all coronavirus cases in the U.S. even though it has only 6% of the country’s population.
However, I think this article ignores the fact that the US is about 2 weeks behind Korea in terms of spread. Let's see how that works out.
"Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08
The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.
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I think the article you post has a lot of good points, but should also mention that the mind set of Koreans (and north Asia in general) is to put the society in front of the individual. Much easier to ask/tell people to do things and there is a greater chance that they will, even if it effects them as an individual.
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@George-K I had posted about South Korea back in the old place. That comparison has been ludicrous from the beginning. The nation has lived in a justified and necessary paranoia of a Chemical/Biological/Nuclear attack by their neighbor for generations. Until only a few years ago, they had routine civilian defense drills against biological attack. They have faced Pandemics and Epidemics in the recent past and have had a greater learning curve.
They also have a much stronger trust and reliance on a strong central government, something that is anathema to many Americans.
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@taiwan_girl +1
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@taiwan_girl There's a guy I follow online who's really big into fixies. His "job" is basically travel around, be poor, and bike in weird places.
He was saying that a major difference between San Francisco and Taiwan is that in San Francisco, if your bike isn't stolen, it's because criminals don't want to get caught. In Taiwan, it's because society will judge the shit out of you because no one wants their community to seem like the kind of place where you can have your bike stolen. I guess that's the kind of thing you're talking about?
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A funny story about South Korea was the time I was there first - probably 15 years ago or so. There were a number of student protests, quite large and somewhat "violent".
But the funny thing was that they were scheduled for a certain time period in a certain area, and there was hardly any "spillover". The first time I was in downtown Seoul, I was told to avoid Area X between this time and that time.
Sure enough, inside Area X, there was rock throwing, bottle throwing, lines and lines of police, etc.
Half a block away, shopping was continuing as normal. When the scheduled protest time ended, Area X cleared and within a short time, it was back to normal.
And then next week, it would happen again. 55555
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Yup, take masks as an example. Very common to wear masks even before all of this. But, people would wear them if they were feeling sick, so that they would not pass on their germs to others, rather to protect themselves FROM others.
People would look bad at someone if they were on a bus or something and coughing, etc and was not wearing a mask.
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Why compare a state to South Korea? Almost 70% of their cases are in Daegu. (Or, as the author of the piece George linked would have it, ‘Daegu is responsible for 70% of their cases’.)
Most South Korean provinces have fewer than 100 cases.
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@jon-nyc said in NYC is ground zero:
NYC - 72,181 - 7% increase
NJ - 41,090
MI - 17,221
Nassau - 15,616
CA - 15,332
LA - 14,867 - 14% increase
Westchester - 14,294
Suffolk - 14,185 - 14% increase
MA - 13,387
FL - 13,317NYC - 76,876 - 7%
NJ - 44,416
MI - 17,221 - same as yesterday, clearly not updated
Nassau County - 16,610
CA - 16,429
LA - 16,284
PA - 14,852
Westchester - 14,804 - 4%
Suffolk County - 14,517
FL - 14,504
MA - 15,202. - 13.5%
IL - 12,266If I didn't note the percentage, it's under 10.
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I don’t know. I suspect the turnaround time varies by state. And even within states.
Some states report positives, negatives, and total tested and you can see there’s a delay.
Some states don’t do that. At least from what I’ve seen.
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I don’t know what the average lag is but I suspect it’s about 5 days. Clinicians are getting the quicker tests but many are going to the 18,000 or so labs around the country.
I think you need to think about that to understand why people believe NY is peaking now.
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@jon-nyc said in NYC is ground zero:
NYC - 76,876 - 7%
NJ - 44,416
MI - 17,221 - same as yesterday, clearly not updated
Nassau County - 16,610
CA - 16,429
LA - 16,284
PA - 14,852
Westchester - 14,804 - 4%
Suffolk County - 14,517
FL - 14,504
MA - 15,202. - 13.5%
IL - 12,266NYC - 81,803 - 6%
NJ - 47,437
MI - 20,346
Nassau - 18.548 - 12%
CA - 17,803
LA - 17,030
Suffolk - 17,008 - 17%
PA - 16,631 - 12%
Westchester - 15,887 - 7%
FL - 15,202Again, no %age means <10%
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https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/08/science/new-york-coronavirus-cases-europe-genomes.html
Genome study says most New York cases of COVID-19 came from Europe.
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And where did the European cases come from?
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@Rainman said in NYC is ground zero:
The feds cannot demand, but they could ask each state for standardization of input.
I used to collect and report this data - 40+ years ago
Where does the time go?
I assume systems have changed since then
https://wwwn.cdc.gov/nndss/data-collection.html
@cdc said in [Notifiable Disease Surveillance Starts at State and Local Levels]
Notifiable Disease Surveillance Starts at State and Local Levels
CDC receives case notifications from 57 reporting jurisdictions. Each state has laws requiring certain diseases be reported at the state level, but it is voluntary for states to provide information or notifications to CDC at the federal level. The notifiable diseases data voluntarily shared by these 57 jurisdictions represents only a portion of the public health surveillance data that jurisdictions collect and use to make decisions and conduct public health activities in their communities (e.g., outbreak detection and control). There are several important distinctions between a reportable disease and a notifiable disease.
It is mandatory that reportable disease cases be reported to state and territorial jurisdictions when identified by a health provider, hospital, or laboratory. This type of required reporting uses personal identifiers and enables the states to identify cases where immediate disease control and prevention is needed. Each state has its own laws and regulations defining what diseases are reportable. The list of reportable diseases varies among states and over time.
It is voluntary that notifiable disease cases be reported to CDC by state and territorial jurisdictions (without direct personal identifiers) for nationwide aggregation and monitoring of disease data. Regular, frequent, timely information on individual cases is considered necessary to monitor disease trends, identify populations or geographic areas at high risk, formulate and assess prevention and control strategies, and formulate public health policies. The list of notifiable diseases varies over time and by state. The list of national notifiable diseases is reviewed and modified annually by the CSTE and CDC. Every national notifiable disease is not necessarily reportable in each state. In addition, not every state reportable condition is national notifiable. -
@jon-nyc said in NYC is ground zero:
NYC - 81,803 - 6%
NJ - 47,437
MI - 20,346
Nassau - 18.548 - 12%
CA - 17,803
LA - 17,030
Suffolk - 17,008 - 17%
PA - 16,631 - 12%
Westchester - 15,887 - 7%
FL - 15,202Again, no %age means <10%
NYC - 87,028 - 6.4%
NJ - 51,027
MI - 21.504
Nassau - 20,140
CA - 19,131
PA - 18,300 - 10%
LA - 18,283
Suffolk - 17,413
Westchester - 17,004 - 7%
MA - 16,790
FL - 16,364
IL - 15,078NYC more than China (claimed) cases now. PA is the only state up 10%
DON’T let them eat cake.
- RFK Jr -
@jon-nyc said in NYC is ground zero:
NYC - 87,028 - 6.4%
NJ - 51,027
MI - 21.504
Nassau - 20,140
CA - 19,131
PA - 18,300 - 10%
LA - 18,283
Suffolk - 17,413
Westchester - 17,004 - 7%
MA - 16,790
FL - 16,364
IL - 15,078Not updated in 3 days, but I'm computing daily averages.
NYC - 103,208 - 5.8%
NJ - 61,850
MI - 24,028
Nassau - 23, 553
PA - 22,938
MA - 22,860 - 10.8% daily ave growth
CA 22,439
Suffolk - 20,934
IL - 20,848 - 11.4% daily average growth
LA - 20,595
FL - 19,347
Westchester - 19,313 - 4.3%DON’T let them eat cake.
- RFK Jr
