NYC is ground zero
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Well, let's take the two extreme cases:
Case 1: 50% of the population in NYC is infected. In that case, one could assume that NYC is presumably done with COVID-19 within a few weeks, and it won't get much worse.
Case 2: All who are infected have been tested. In that case, this could just be the beginning. OTOH, isolating the known infected still makes sense in this scenario.Of course none of the extreme cases is particularly likely, but I think getting some better data at this point would be possible and should be done.
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I think we can rule out the extremes from the testing data we do have and the realistic outcomes wouldn’t change our strategy now.
Besides, we could use antibody tests for this, one of which is now approved by the FDA
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Been three days since I updated this.
"NYC - 51,809 - up 9.2%
NJ - 25,590 up
Westchester - 11,567 - up 8%
MI - 10,779
CA - 10,080
LA - 9121 - up 42%!
FL - 8010"NYC - 67,551 - 9% daily growth rate
NJ - 37,505
MI - 15,718
Nassau County - 14,398
CA - 14,055
Westchester - 13,723 - only 6% daily growth.
LA - 13,010 - 13% daily growth rate
Suffolk County - 12,405
FL - 12,151 - 15% daily growthNassau and Suffolk counties are the two counties of Long Island. Nassau borders the city, Suffolk is further out.
Probably makes sense to think of NYC, Westchester, Nassau, Suffolk, and NJ as a 150k+ case cluster.
Only non-witches get due process.
- Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
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“Narrative” doesn’t seem like the right word.
He looks at a bunch of models. The more pessimistic McKinsey model shows a need for ~30k ventilators.
I haven’t seen the details behind the McKinsey models but I’ll bet they turn out to be more accurate than IHME In most particulars. See the flaws that Cochran points out, which I quoted in the previous thread. Baked into IHME is:
- believing CCP data.
- considering our social distancing efforts the equal of Wuhan’s 2nd round in efficacy (When they were welding doors shut)
- envisioning the fall to be the same rate as the increase, IOW post-lockdown R = 1/R0
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“Narrative” doesn’t seem like the right word.
He looks at a bunch of models. The more pessimistic McKinsey model shows a need for ~30k ventilators.
I haven’t seen the details behind the McKinsey models but I’ll bet they turn out to be more accurate than IHME In most particulars. See the flaws that Cochran points out, which I quoted in the previous thread. Baked into IHME is:
- believing CCP data.
- considering our social distancing efforts the equal of Wuhan’s 2nd round in efficacy (When they were welding doors shut)
- envisioning the fall to be the same rate as the increase, IOW post-lockdown R = 1/R0
@jon-nyc said in NYC is ground zero:
“Narrative” doesn’t seem like the right word.
He looks at a bunch of models. The more pessimistic McKinsey model shows a need for ~30k ventilators.
I haven’t seen the details behind the McKinsey models but I’ll bet they turn out to be more accurate than IHME In most particulars. See the flaws that Cochran points out, which I quoted in the previous thread. Baked into IHME is:
- believing CCP data.
- considering our social distancing efforts the equal of Wuhan’s 2nd round in efficacy (When they were welding doors shut)
- envisioning the fall to be the same rate as the increase, IOW post-lockdown R = 1/R0
Today IHME says 24,000 ventilators are needed in the US in total. It is also 5 days later and their model is tracking the screenshots I took. Also says NY is peaking which appears to be the case. I don’t mind Cuomo making the case for resources but last week it was all vents all the time as a political football and now we are seeing who may be right.
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Been three days since I updated this.
"NYC - 51,809 - up 9.2%
NJ - 25,590 up
Westchester - 11,567 - up 8%
MI - 10,779
CA - 10,080
LA - 9121 - up 42%!
FL - 8010"NYC - 67,551 - 9% daily growth rate
NJ - 37,505
MI - 15,718
Nassau County - 14,398
CA - 14,055
Westchester - 13,723 - only 6% daily growth.
LA - 13,010 - 13% daily growth rate
Suffolk County - 12,405
FL - 12,151 - 15% daily growthNassau and Suffolk counties are the two counties of Long Island. Nassau borders the city, Suffolk is further out.
Probably makes sense to think of NYC, Westchester, Nassau, Suffolk, and NJ as a 150k+ case cluster.
@jon-nyc said in NYC is ground zero:
NYC - 67,551 - 9% daily growth rate
NJ - 37,505
MI - 15,718
Nassau County - 14,398
CA - 14,055
Westchester - 13,723 - only 6% daily growth.
LA - 13,010 - 13% daily growth rate
Suffolk County - 12,405
FL - 12,151 - 15% daily growthNYC - 72,181 - 7% increase
NJ - 41,090
MI - 17,221
Nassau - 15,616
CA - 15,332
LA - 14,867 - 14% increase
Westchester - 14,294
Suffolk - 14,185 - 14% increase
MA - 13,387
FL - 13,317Louisiana now has more cases than Westchester.
Every entity I didn't put a percentage increase on gained less than 10% (usually just under)
Again I like these (2nd deriv) trends.
Only non-witches get due process.
- Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
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I would like to see a comparison of states with similar sized countries. I hear compare US vs Italy or Spain...No, compare US vs Italy, Spain, France, and Germany combined...Let’s compare Italy with New York and New Jersey... Let’s compare Spain with Texas....
The Brad
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I would like to see a comparison of states with similar sized countries. I hear compare US vs Italy or Spain...No, compare US vs Italy, Spain, France, and Germany combined...Let’s compare Italy with New York and New Jersey... Let’s compare Spain with Texas....
@LuFins-Dad said in NYC is ground zero:
I would like to see a comparison of states with similar sized countries. I hear compare US vs Italy or Spain...No, compare US vs Italy, Spain, France, and Germany combined...Let’s compare Italy with New York and New Jersey... Let’s compare Spain with Texas....
That's right. John Burn-Murdoch posts nightly updates with those pretty graphs showing rise, etc. When the US deaths exceeded the number from any other country, he posted the graph, with the comment "American exceptionalism."
