What're the odds that Biden will finish his first term?
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wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 15:22 last edited by
I'd guess at about 33%.
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wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 15:23 last edited by
You are assuming he won?
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wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 15:30 last edited by
Pending evidence of fraud, yeah, he won.
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wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 15:32 last edited by bachophile 11 Apr 2020, 15:32
Yea. I figure two years tops
But on the other hand, what are the odds that trump tries again in 2024. I could see him trying to be shadow president for the next four years. And then come back in glory.
But OTOH, I doubt the republicans would let him anywhere near it.
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wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 15:46 last edited by
The name on the placard doesn’t change much of anything.
The bigger question is how much can be accomplished through Executive Orders? That’s the battle of the next two years...
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The name on the placard doesn’t change much of anything.
The bigger question is how much can be accomplished through Executive Orders? That’s the battle of the next two years...
wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 15:47 last edited by@LuFins-Dad said in What're the odds that Biden will finish his first term?:
how much can be accomplished through Executive Orders? That’s the battle of the next two years...
And we can thank Bush and Obama for that.
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wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 16:11 last edited by
Is say 90%
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Yea. I figure two years tops
But on the other hand, what are the odds that trump tries again in 2024. I could see him trying to be shadow president for the next four years. And then come back in glory.
But OTOH, I doubt the republicans would let him anywhere near it.
wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 16:12 last edited by@bachophile said in What're the odds that Biden will finish his first term?:
Yea. I figure two years tops
But on the other hand, what are the odds that trump tries again in 2024. I could see him trying to be shadow president for the next four years. And then come back in glory.
But OTOH, I doubt the republicans would let him anywhere near it.
In four years, he'll be even older than Biden is now. We could have two presidents not survive their term.
God, imagine what DJT would be like if he started going senile.
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wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 16:15 last edited by
Based on life expectancy calculators I'd say its north of 85%.
He has a 75% chance of living to 86 which would get him through two terms.
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wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 16:21 last edited by
Uncle Joe is 77 now, living in a nation with male life expectancy of 78.5 years.
But that's before you take into account Uncle Joe's socioeconomic status.
If you look at US male in the top quartile by economic income, a category in which Uncle Joe easily qualifies, the life expectancy there is over 87 years.
Uncle Joe will likely outlives his first term.Heck, Jimmy Carter is 96 and he is still around.
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wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 16:22 last edited by
We learned that we are truly a divided country. We learned that a progressive agenda won’t fly. That is all that matters.
The fact that Trump came so close given 4 years of carpet bombing tells you the GOP is still very very relevant.
The Senate holds and picks up seats in 2 years.
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wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 16:23 last edited by
Dude, you don't use life expectancy at birth to calculate the life expectancy of a 77 year old.
You look at tables that show survival conditional on having already lived to 77.
That's what I did. The actual expectancy (given the demographic data it asked for) put it at 92.
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Dude, you don't use life expectancy at birth to calculate the life expectancy of a 77 year old.
You look at tables that show survival conditional on having already lived to 77.
That's what I did. The actual expectancy (given the demographic data it asked for) put it at 92.
wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 16:24 last edited by@jon-nyc said in What're the odds that Biden will finish his first term?:
You look at tables that show survival conditional on having already lived to 77.
That's what I did. The actual expectancy (given the demographic data it asked for) put it at 92.
Yes, that's a better method. Good for Uncle Joe.
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wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 16:29 last edited by
I think chances are he will make it.
But 2024 is the year of Nikki Haley, unless Harris gets in and removes the appetite for a woman, which I think she could. 2024 could well be Haley-Harris, as Biden will not run for a second term.
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wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 16:31 last edited by
The interesting thing will be how Biden treats Harris. She is exceedingly ambitious, so I suspect he will relegate her to funerals, etc. A long, long arms length.
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wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 16:35 last edited by
The bigger issue isn’t physical health, but mental. I could see him stepping down around midterms.
The Brad
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I think chances are he will make it.
But 2024 is the year of Nikki Haley, unless Harris gets in and removes the appetite for a woman, which I think she could. 2024 could well be Haley-Harris, as Biden will not run for a second term.
wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 16:44 last edited by@Mik said in What're the odds that Biden will finish his first term?:
and removes the appetite for a woman, which I think she could.
Maybe yours. My appetite for women had proved unquenchable.
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Dude, you don't use life expectancy at birth to calculate the life expectancy of a 77 year old.
You look at tables that show survival conditional on having already lived to 77.
That's what I did. The actual expectancy (given the demographic data it asked for) put it at 92.
wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 16:48 last edited by@jon-nyc yes the life expectancy is long, but being alive doesn’t translate into being fit enough to handle the most demanding job on the planet.
I’m amazed that he kept up a full scale campaign.
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@Mik said in What're the odds that Biden will finish his first term?:
and removes the appetite for a woman, which I think she could.
Maybe yours. My appetite for women had proved unquenchable.
wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 16:55 last edited by@jon-nyc said in What're the odds that Biden will finish his first term?:
@Mik said in What're the odds that Biden will finish his first term?:
and removes the appetite for a woman, which I think she could.
Maybe yours. My appetite for women had proved unquenchable.
Perhaps. But remember - romance starts with a heart and a ring but ends with a club and a spade.
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The bigger issue isn’t physical health, but mental. I could see him stepping down around midterms.
wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 17:45 last edited by@LuFins-Dad said in What're the odds that Biden will finish his first term?:
The bigger issue isn’t physical health, but mental. I could see him stepping down around midterms.
Feed, water and turn.
