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The New Coffee Room

  1. TNCR
  2. General Discussion
  3. What're the odds that Biden will finish his first term?

What're the odds that Biden will finish his first term?

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  • George KG Offline
    George KG Offline
    George K
    wrote on last edited by
    #1

    I'd guess at about 33%.

    "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

    The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

    1 Reply Last reply
    • markM Offline
      markM Offline
      mark
      wrote on last edited by
      #2

      You are assuming he won?

      1 Reply Last reply
      • LuFins DadL Offline
        LuFins DadL Offline
        LuFins Dad
        wrote on last edited by
        #3

        Pending evidence of fraud, yeah, he won.

        The Brad

        1 Reply Last reply
        • bachophileB Offline
          bachophileB Offline
          bachophile
          wrote on last edited by bachophile
          #4

          Yea. I figure two years tops

          But on the other hand, what are the odds that trump tries again in 2024. I could see him trying to be shadow president for the next four years. And then come back in glory.

          But OTOH, I doubt the republicans would let him anywhere near it.

          Doctor PhibesD 1 Reply Last reply
          • LuFins DadL Offline
            LuFins DadL Offline
            LuFins Dad
            wrote on last edited by
            #5

            The name on the placard doesn’t change much of anything.

            The bigger question is how much can be accomplished through Executive Orders? That’s the battle of the next two years...

            The Brad

            George KG 1 Reply Last reply
            • LuFins DadL LuFins Dad

              The name on the placard doesn’t change much of anything.

              The bigger question is how much can be accomplished through Executive Orders? That’s the battle of the next two years...

              George KG Offline
              George KG Offline
              George K
              wrote on last edited by
              #6

              @LuFins-Dad said in What're the odds that Biden will finish his first term?:

              how much can be accomplished through Executive Orders? That’s the battle of the next two years...

              And we can thank Bush and Obama for that.

              "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

              The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

              1 Reply Last reply
              • 89th8 Offline
                89th8 Offline
                89th
                wrote on last edited by
                #7

                Is say 90%

                1 Reply Last reply
                • bachophileB bachophile

                  Yea. I figure two years tops

                  But on the other hand, what are the odds that trump tries again in 2024. I could see him trying to be shadow president for the next four years. And then come back in glory.

                  But OTOH, I doubt the republicans would let him anywhere near it.

                  Doctor PhibesD Offline
                  Doctor PhibesD Offline
                  Doctor Phibes
                  wrote on last edited by
                  #8

                  @bachophile said in What're the odds that Biden will finish his first term?:

                  Yea. I figure two years tops

                  But on the other hand, what are the odds that trump tries again in 2024. I could see him trying to be shadow president for the next four years. And then come back in glory.

                  But OTOH, I doubt the republicans would let him anywhere near it.

                  In four years, he'll be even older than Biden is now. We could have two presidents not survive their term.

                  God, imagine what DJT would be like if he started going senile.

                  I was only joking

                  1 Reply Last reply
                  • jon-nycJ Offline
                    jon-nycJ Offline
                    jon-nyc
                    wrote on last edited by
                    #9

                    Based on life expectancy calculators I'd say its north of 85%.

                    He has a 75% chance of living to 86 which would get him through two terms.

                    You were warned.

                    1 Reply Last reply
                    • AxtremusA Offline
                      AxtremusA Offline
                      Axtremus
                      wrote on last edited by
                      #10

                      Uncle Joe is 77 now, living in a nation with male life expectancy of 78.5 years.
                      But that's before you take into account Uncle Joe's socioeconomic status.
                      If you look at US male in the top quartile by economic income, a category in which Uncle Joe easily qualifies, the life expectancy there is over 87 years.
                      Uncle Joe will likely outlives his first term.

                      Heck, Jimmy Carter is 96 and he is still around.

                      1 Reply Last reply
                      • L Offline
                        L Offline
                        Loki
                        wrote on last edited by
                        #11

                        We learned that we are truly a divided country. We learned that a progressive agenda won’t fly. That is all that matters.

                        The fact that Trump came so close given 4 years of carpet bombing tells you the GOP is still very very relevant.

                        The Senate holds and picks up seats in 2 years.

                        1 Reply Last reply
                        • jon-nycJ Offline
                          jon-nycJ Offline
                          jon-nyc
                          wrote on last edited by
                          #12

                          Dude, you don't use life expectancy at birth to calculate the life expectancy of a 77 year old.

                          You look at tables that show survival conditional on having already lived to 77.

                          That's what I did. The actual expectancy (given the demographic data it asked for) put it at 92.

                          You were warned.

                          AxtremusA bachophileB 2 Replies Last reply
                          • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

                            Dude, you don't use life expectancy at birth to calculate the life expectancy of a 77 year old.

                            You look at tables that show survival conditional on having already lived to 77.

                            That's what I did. The actual expectancy (given the demographic data it asked for) put it at 92.

                            AxtremusA Offline
                            AxtremusA Offline
                            Axtremus
                            wrote on last edited by
                            #13

                            @jon-nyc said in What're the odds that Biden will finish his first term?:

                            You look at tables that show survival conditional on having already lived to 77.

                            That's what I did. The actual expectancy (given the demographic data it asked for) put it at 92.

                            Yes, that's a better method. Good for Uncle Joe.

                            1 Reply Last reply
                            • MikM Away
                              MikM Away
                              Mik
                              wrote on last edited by
                              #14

                              I think chances are he will make it.

                              But 2024 is the year of Nikki Haley, unless Harris gets in and removes the appetite for a woman, which I think she could. 2024 could well be Haley-Harris, as Biden will not run for a second term.

                              “I am fond of pigs. Dogs look up to us. Cats look down on us. Pigs treat us as equals.” ~Winston S. Churchill

                              jon-nycJ 1 Reply Last reply
                              • MikM Away
                                MikM Away
                                Mik
                                wrote on last edited by
                                #15

                                The interesting thing will be how Biden treats Harris. She is exceedingly ambitious, so I suspect he will relegate her to funerals, etc. A long, long arms length.

                                “I am fond of pigs. Dogs look up to us. Cats look down on us. Pigs treat us as equals.” ~Winston S. Churchill

                                1 Reply Last reply
                                • LuFins DadL Offline
                                  LuFins DadL Offline
                                  LuFins Dad
                                  wrote on last edited by
                                  #16

                                  The bigger issue isn’t physical health, but mental. I could see him stepping down around midterms.

                                  The Brad

                                  JollyJ 1 Reply Last reply
                                  • MikM Mik

                                    I think chances are he will make it.

                                    But 2024 is the year of Nikki Haley, unless Harris gets in and removes the appetite for a woman, which I think she could. 2024 could well be Haley-Harris, as Biden will not run for a second term.

                                    jon-nycJ Offline
                                    jon-nycJ Offline
                                    jon-nyc
                                    wrote on last edited by
                                    #17

                                    @Mik said in What're the odds that Biden will finish his first term?:

                                    and removes the appetite for a woman, which I think she could.

                                    Maybe yours. My appetite for women had proved unquenchable.

                                    You were warned.

                                    MikM 1 Reply Last reply
                                    • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

                                      Dude, you don't use life expectancy at birth to calculate the life expectancy of a 77 year old.

                                      You look at tables that show survival conditional on having already lived to 77.

                                      That's what I did. The actual expectancy (given the demographic data it asked for) put it at 92.

                                      bachophileB Offline
                                      bachophileB Offline
                                      bachophile
                                      wrote on last edited by
                                      #18

                                      @jon-nyc yes the life expectancy is long, but being alive doesn’t translate into being fit enough to handle the most demanding job on the planet.

                                      I’m amazed that he kept up a full scale campaign.

                                      1 Reply Last reply
                                      • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

                                        @Mik said in What're the odds that Biden will finish his first term?:

                                        and removes the appetite for a woman, which I think she could.

                                        Maybe yours. My appetite for women had proved unquenchable.

                                        MikM Away
                                        MikM Away
                                        Mik
                                        wrote on last edited by
                                        #19

                                        @jon-nyc said in What're the odds that Biden will finish his first term?:

                                        @Mik said in What're the odds that Biden will finish his first term?:

                                        and removes the appetite for a woman, which I think she could.

                                        Maybe yours. My appetite for women had proved unquenchable.

                                        Perhaps. But remember - romance starts with a heart and a ring but ends with a club and a spade.

                                        “I am fond of pigs. Dogs look up to us. Cats look down on us. Pigs treat us as equals.” ~Winston S. Churchill

                                        1 Reply Last reply
                                        • LuFins DadL LuFins Dad

                                          The bigger issue isn’t physical health, but mental. I could see him stepping down around midterms.

                                          JollyJ Offline
                                          JollyJ Offline
                                          Jolly
                                          wrote on last edited by
                                          #20

                                          @LuFins-Dad said in What're the odds that Biden will finish his first term?:

                                          The bigger issue isn’t physical health, but mental. I could see him stepping down around midterms.

                                          Feed, water and turn.

                                          “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

                                          Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

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